Copa America 2019: Betting Preview – Futures Quarter-Finals

copa america 2019 quarter finals betting odds

The first stage of the 2019 Copa America is in the books. Eight teams remain alive after Bolivia, Ecuador and the two guests, Japan and Qatar, said goodbye to the competition. The quarterfinals matchups are set, along with the rest of the road to the final to be played the Maracanã Stadium on July 7th.

A Copa America final between Brazil and Argentina won’t be possible as both are set to meet in the semifinals if they win their respective quarterfinals games. A trilogy between Chile and Argentina will be possible as they are paired in different sides of the bracket. Although, a lot has to happen for this to become a reality. Let’s review the Copa America future odds to win the tournament for the last eight teams remaining.

Copa America Futures Quarter-Finals Odds

Brazil +110

  • Quarterfinal opponent: Peru
  • Possible semifinal matchup: vs Colombia or Chile

There are no surprises here. Brazil has the most talented team remaining in the tournament, plus they are the host nation; the favorites’ label fits perfectly. Until someone knocks them out, they will stay that way in everybody’s eyes. The people making the odds at didn’t hesitate in thinking this way, that’ why the +110 future odds have a 48% of implied probability of winning.

Brazil hasn’t won Copa America since 2007. That was, in fact, their last international title. There is some added pressure on this team to win this tournament, especially after they had a massively disappointing World Cup as a host in 2014. The Brazilians scored eight goals in the first three games of the group stage. They scored three on Bolivia and five on Peru, yet they failed to claim a goal against Venezuela. Their last outing against Peru showed they are capable of stomping on a good team if they are inspired.

Brazil is the bet you want to make if you are looking for something secure. When facing Paraguay, they will go against a team that loves to sacrifice defensively but is not talented enough on offense. Then in the semifinals, they will meet either Argentina or Venezuela; both are inferior teams that should not keep them away from the final.

Uruguay +450

  • Quarterfinal opponent: Peru
  • Possible semifinal matchup: vs Colombia or Chile

Uruguay is on the other side of the bracket where they will face Peru in the quarterfinals. If they win, the “Charruas” will have to deal with either Chile or Colombia to have a place in the final. This is technically the hardest side of the bracket because it has three teams with potential championship rosters.

The Uruguayans are the nation with the most Copa America titles with 15, and they won their most recent one in 2011. Several key members of that team like Luis Suarez, Edinson Cavani, and Diego Godin remain on the squad. They are in a good enough form to add another championship. Uruguay has an implied probability of 18% to win the tournament. The road for the Uruguayans will be challenging, but they already beat a solid team Chile in the group stage. Against Colombia, it could be anybody’s match if they clash in the semifinals.

Argentina +550

  • Quarterfinal opponent: Venezuela
  • Possible semifinal matchup: vs. Brazil or Paraguay

Argentina to win the Copa America is the one bet I wouldn’t make in the future odds. There isn’t enough value for me to take a team that has no idea who they are. Yes, they have Lionel Messi in the lineup, and he’s still one of the best players in the world, but that’s not enough.

Of the teams that Argentina has had in the last decade, the current squad might be the weakest of them all. Other than Messi, and perhaps Sergio Aguero when inspired, this team has no playmakers. There is not enough talent in the lineup to see them beat Brazil in a potential semifinal. Not to mention Uruguay, Chile or Colombia in a final.

Messi has never won a tournament with Argentina and has lost three finals already, with rosters far more talented than this one. When he plays at Barcelona in Europe, he gets the respect of the defenders, but not in South America. The way they chase and tackle him without any fear whatsoever makes him vulnerable. It’s just a different type of soccer that doesn’t suit him.

Colombia +600

  • Quarterfinal opponent: Chile
  • Possible semifinal matchup: vs. Uruguay or Peru

Colombia is my value pick since day one. The Colombians have won the Copa America just once back in 2001, and that’s why they don’t get the respect they deserve. But after Brazil, they happen to have the most talented team in the tournament; from top to bottom.

It was shown in the first game against Argentina during the group stage, but also by winning the next two against Qatar and Paraguay. Everybody loves talking about James Rodriguez, Radamel Falcao, Juan Cuadrado, and that insane Colombian attack, but their defense remains unbeaten so far in the Copa. In fact, out of all 12 teams in the competition, only Brazil and Colombia hasn’t allowed a single goal, so far.

The +600 odds at my gives the Colombian national team pick to win the tournament a 14% implied probability. The only reason this bet is not more popular is that their history in this tournament is not great, but the talent and the players are there. This is one of the best generations of players in Colombian soccer history. They just need to take one step further and win it all; just like Chile did it in the last previous editions.

Chile +900

  • Quarterfinal opponent: Colombia
  • Possible semifinal matchup: vs. Uruguay or Peru

And since I mentioned Chile, perhaps no defending champ has been more disrespected than the Chileans. In 2016 they won the Copa America at home. Nobody gave them a chance in the Copa America Centenario played at the United States the following year. Guess what? “La Roja” proved everybody wrong and won back-to-back titles. In my book, Chile can make another run at the title with the current squad that they have.

Striker Alexis Sanchez shows an entirely different level when he is on the national team. He feels more confident, and that allows him to play at his best. His attacking partner Eduardo Vargas is an underrated playmaker up front. Chile knows they can compete and beat anybody in South America. They have done it in the last two Copa Americas—that’s why the +900 odds with a 10% implied probability of winning are fascinating.

Chile will meet Colombia in the quarterfinals. I would wait to see if the Chilean team can advance to the semifinals, and then make a play to them winning the tournament. The odds will still be great, believe me. The oddsmakers are disrespecting the champs.

Peru +3300

  • Quarterfinal opponent: Uruguay
  • Possible semifinal matchup: vs. Colombia or Chile

Peru is a two time Copa America winner, but the last time they came on top was in 1975. In fact, the last time they reached the final was back in 1987. It’s been a long time since they have been successful in this competition. The Peruvian team overachieved under coach Ricardo Gareca in 2017 and made it to the Russia 2018 World Cup. It was quite the shocker considering they were not amongst the favorites. It will be a bigger surprise if they end up winning the 2019 Copa America.

Peru is +3300 with an implied probability of 3% of chance of winning it. The reality is they have not shot at the title. Let’s start with the fact that they are on the hardest side of the bracket alongside three of the five teams that can actually win this tournament. Second of all, even if they beat Uruguay in the quarterfinals, which is unlikely, then Chile or Colombia will be waiting in the semis. Not to mention Brazil or Argentina in the final. The Peruvians would be underdogs on every single game.

Venezuela +5000

  • Quarterfinal opponent: Argentina
  • Possible semifinal matchup: vs. Brazil or Paraguay

Look, I love what Venezuela has done over the last decade. The improvement of the national team over the last ten years is undeniable, but they are still far away from becoming Copa America champions. The Venezuelans used to be considered the worst squad in South America. In fact, teams that knew when Venezuela appeared on their scheduled, it was a win by default. That’s not the case anymore. This team is fantastic on defense and allowed only one goal against in the group stage.

Venezuela will face Argentina in the quarterfinals and, as shocking as it might sound, I would consider them to get the upset. Their defense will drive the Argentineans crazy. They have more than just a puncher’s chance. However, if they advance, a possible semifinal matchup against Brazil should end up in a loss. The Venezuelan team won’t win the Copa America but can bust a few brackets along the way.

Paraguay +10000

  • Quarterfinal opponent: Brazil
  • Possible Semifinal matchup: vs. Argentina or Venezuela

The Paraguayan team is quite unpredictable. They managed to get to the quarterfinals by earning just two points in the group stage, losing once and drawing twice. They have one win in the last 18 Copa America games, yet they have been successful in the tournament.

They reached the final in 2011 and the semifinals in 2015; both times they eliminated Brazil in penalties. Guess which team they will face in the quarterfinals? Yes, Brazil again. How are these numbers possible? This team doesn’t win nor lose. They just have the habit of earnings draws while advancing via penalties. Paraguay is the weirdest squad on the tournament.

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Alonzo Solano

Alonzo Solano - Sports Analyst & Picks Writer

Alonzo is a Sports Analyst who has covered College Football and NFL odds for SafestBettingSites but don’t be surprised if you read him on any other sport. He’s a gaming analyst looking for winners every weekend.

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