As of Thursday morning, the Democrats are still in disarray after the Iowa caucuses. According to the New York Times, there are still a few dozen precincts in 28 counties left with 97% of precincts reporting results.
Former South Bend, Indiana mayor, Pete Buttigieg, leads Senator Bernie Sanders by .1 percent. Sanders, however, has a 54% probability of winning the first Democratic contest in the primary season.
Who Won The Iowa Caucuses?
It’s truly a bad omen that even after more than two days Democrats still can’t say who exactly won in the Iowa caucuses. Reportedly, tallies were to be tabulated on app from a company called Shadow Inc. With some Democratic Party chairs downloading the app the night of the caucus.
The backup plan was a hotline for party chairs to report to, if necessary. Bloomberg reported that those hotlines might have been conspiratorially “hacked” by Trump supporters who spotted the hotline’s phone number from CNN showing paperwork of the Democratic Party leaders in Iowa.
Talk about a sh*tshow.
Let’s breakdown some of the political betting odds going into Friday night’s debate three days before the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, February 11th.
Odds Analysis After Iowa Caucuses
The state of Iowa holds a total of 44 delegates for Democrats in the lead-up to the general election in November. In order for the candidate to win the party’s nomination, he or she will have to earn 2,000 delegates.
Some progressives are claiming that the mess and “debacle” in Iowa was a deliberate roadblock to Sanders’ campaign.
MyBookie & Bovada 2020 Presidential Elections Odds
Here are at what the odds look like after the Iowa Caucuses for the 2020 Presidential Elections at our top two betting sites:
| Candidate | Odds At | Odds At |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -300 | -155 |
| Bernie Sanders | +325 | +425 |
| Joe Biden | +650 | +950 |
| Michael Bloomberg | +900 | +750 |
| Pete Buttigieg | +5000 | +1100 |
| Andrew Yang | +5000 | +3000 |
| Elizabeth Warren | +3000 | +3000 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | +50000 | +15000 |
| Hillary Clinton | +5000 | +5000 |
| Amy Klobuchar | +15000 | +10000 |
| Mike Pence | +28000 | +12500 |
| John Kasich | +90000 | +25000 |
| Nikki Haley | +35000 | +15000 |
| Michelle Obama | +15000 | +12500 |
Odds Have Shifted In Favor Of Bernie
Still, Bernie has completely shifted in betting markets in the last few weeks. Former Vice President, Joe Biden, was a heavy favorite to become the Democratic nominee. After his fourth-place performance in the Iowa caucuses, that appears highly unlikely.
These two top-tier candidates have nearly traded places and it was on display in Iowa with Sanders earning nearly double the votes of Biden.
Buttigieg Vs. Sanders
Buttigieg had a huge boost, especially after he declared victory in Iowa before any votes were even reported. Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren earned third place but still finished well behind Sanders with 10,000 fewer votes.
According to the 97% results from Iowa, Sanders won with vote totals. But Buttigieg still leads by the slimmest of margins with delegates. (I almost wrote “slimiest”.) So the oddsmakers are also probably left scratching their heads this week in American politics.
Presidential Election Odds at MyBookie
Donald Trump is a -300 favorite to win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, according to MyBookie. After Trump’s recent acquittal in the Senate’s impeachment proceedings, he has the highest approval rating of his entire presidency.
Only Bernie comes close at +325 at MyBookie.ag. However, he can be found at +425 at Bovada.lv win the Presidency.
A Look At The Other Candidates’ Odds
I’m looking for Biden (+950) to fall dramatically. While Warren (+3000) climbs in spite of Buttigieg (+5000) winning the number two spot in the Iowa caucuses. Depending on your view of things, that is.
Presidential Election Odds at Bovada
Odds over at Bovada have Trump ranked at -155 to win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election. Whereas Bernie is ranked +425, former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg is +750, and Biden and Buttigieg ranked +850 and +1300, respectively.
In the coming weeks, these odds are going to experience quite a shakeup. But I’ll be looking for Bernie to pull ahead of the pack — even as the Democratic establishment continues to shun him for his progressive political agenda.
With Trump at the helm, this portends a mighty shakeup of the status quo in American politics.
Next for Democrats: Friday Night Debate and Tuesday New Hampshire Primary
Next up for Democrats will be the debate Friday night. Umm, I had to look to Teen Vogue for the most recent reporting on the next episode of Democracy, Incorporated. They informed me (via the New York Times) that seven candidates have earned their shot at looking at Americans in the camera and pleading their case to face Trump, come November.
MyBookie is giving the Republican Party -250 odds to win it all, with the Democrats ranked at +175. Bovada has the Republicans at -155 to win the general election against the Democrats’ +125.
| Bet At | Republican Party | Democratic Party |
|---|---|---|
| -250 | +175 |
| -155 | +125 |
These odds seem somewhat fair. I think that they will stay the same even after the Democrats debate and have their next primary. Trump is here to stay.
How Will Party Odds Shift After The Nomination?
I’ll be looking for Sanders’ odds to win the Democratic Party’s nomination, at +150 according to Bovada, to strengthen after a strong showing in New Hampshire. Warren is ranked +1200 to earn the party’s top spot — and with the primary nearly in her backyard, it’s a great test for her and Sanders there. To me, Buttigieg was a fluke.
Sanders won nearly a dozen polls this week for the New Hampshire primary contest. Biden is still favored in polling data to win the party’s nomination. But after his very poor performance in Iowa, and then another potential loss in New Hampshire — I see his campaign dwindling to incompetence, along with the rest of the establishment Democrats.
Bernie Has Great Odds To Become The Democratic Candidate
Bernie is still my guy. To think, a few weeks ago he was a 10% chance longshot to win it all. And now he’s a coin-flip away from beating those odds to become the candidate to beat this 2020 Election year. With three debates to go this month, and three more caucuses — anything’s possible.
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