Florida Derby Horse Race Betting Preview, Odds, and Analysis 2020

Florida Derby Horse Race bets and odds

The Florida Derby wraps up the Florida stakes preps for the 2020 Kentucky Derby. A dozen 3-year-old colts and geldings, with one also-eligible, will contest 1 1/18-miles worth 100 qualifying points to the victor.

Post time for the 2020 Florida Derby is 6:36 pm at Gulfstream Park. The track will be fast. 

Let’s take a look at the horse racing bets and odds for the Florida Derby:

#7 TIZ THE LAW (6-5) (+120)

Pros: Two time graded stakes winner Tiz the Law is the decisive winner of the Holy Bull (G3). Runner-up Ete Indien flattered Tiz the Law with a runaway front-running victory in the Fountain of Youth (G2).

Cons: Tiz the Law skipped the Fountain of Youth. Only two horses since 2006 have pulled off the Holy Bull/Florida Derby double while skipping the Fountain of Youth.

The Play: The top pick. Use on top and underneath

#5 GOUVERNEUR MORRIS (8-1) (+800)

Pros: Gouverneur Morris has the pedigree to handle nine furlongs. This Todd Pletcher trainee is making his second start off the layoff and should move forward.

Cons: How good is Gouverneur Morris? In his only race around two turns and in graded stakes company, he was bested by 5 1/2-lengths.

The Play: Have to respect the connections and could be right there if the favorite stubs a hoof. Use him on top and underneath on your tickets

#12 ETE INDIEN (4-1) (+400)

Pros: Ete Indien defied his outside post position to dazzle in the Fountain of Youth. Jockey Florent Geroux will likely hustle the son of Summer Front out of the gate to get a good early position as he did in the Fountain of Youth.

Cons: I’m not 100% sure Ete Indien wants to run 1 1/8-miles, especially after hustling early.

The Play: If he’s good enough, he can overcome the wide post, much like he did when breaking from post ten in the Fountain of Youth. Use on top and underneath

#9 INDEPENDENCE HALL (9-2) (+450)

Pros: Connections say that Independence Hall lost a shoe and had issues with the tongue tie in the Sam F. Davis, where he suffered his first defeat. He’s a free-running type that will vie for the lead. 

Cons: His pace-setting/pressing style means he’ll have to go early to get position, and his temperament may not let him relax once he’s secured his spot.

The Play: Use underneath.

#10 CANDY TYCOON (20-1) (+2000)

Pros: Twirling Candy showed versatility when he scored a front-running maiden win and returned with an off-the-pace runner-up effort in the Fountain of Youth (G2). He’ll have to be adaptable to do well here, considering the outside post.

Cons: His outside post means a wide trip. Candy Tycoon doesn’t have the late pace speed figures to be a win contender, but he could hit the board.

The Play: Use underneath.

#1 AS SEEN ON TV (12-1) (+1200)

Pros: As Seen On Tv has never finished out of the money. He drew the rail, which suits his forwardly placed running style.

Cons: He was no match for Ete Indien in the Fountain of Youth, finishing more than eight lengths back. As Seen On Tv hung in the stretch, and missed the second-place spot to Candy Tycoon, who passed him late.

The Play: Perhaps he can hang on for third or fourth place. Use him if you’re placing multiple bets. Otherwise, pass.

#6 AJAAWEED (20-1) (+2000)

Pros: Ajaaweed has done quite well for himself at the higher levels, and finished in the money in his last two starts. He will close from the back of the pack in a race filled with speed.

Cons: Ajaaweed had the perfect set up in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, but was beaten 13 lengths. He is a one-paced grinder with no actual speed.

The Play: This is the kind of horse that clunks up to ruin somebody’s superfecta. Use him if placing multiple bets. Otherwise, pass.

#2 SHIVAREE (30-1) (+3000)

Pros: Shivaree is well-bred. Three of his four half-siblings are stakes horses. Shivaree likes to race on or near the lead, so the blinkers come off to help him relax.

Cons: Shivaree has a sprinter/miler pedigree. In his only try around two turns, at 1 1/16-miles in restricted company, he placed fifth.

The Play: Pass.

#3 DISC JOCKEY (20-1) (+2000)

Pros: Disc Jockey’s off the pace running style will help in a race filled with early speed. Joseph Saffie, Jr. has a tremendous 57% win rate over the last year.

Cons: This will be his two-turn, graded debut, and he looks like he is lengths away from fitting in with the best of the field.

The Play: Pass.

#4 SOROS (30-1) (+3000)

Pros: Lightly raced colt won his maiden in the Smooth Air Stakes in his last start. He could be improving.

Cons: His pedigree is borderline for nine furlongs, and his speed figures are on the low side.

The Play: Pass.

#8 MY FIRST GRAMMY (50-1) (+5000)

Pros: His pedigree is solid, and he will go to the front and try to last.

Cons: My First Grammy is still looking for his first win. The Amador Sanchez trainee hasn’t been a factor in any race.

The Play: Pass.

#11 SASSY BUT SMART (50-1) (+5000)

Pros: After a close fourth-place finish in the Palm Beach (G3), trainer Kendall Condie is hoping for improvement with a turf-to-dirt move. 

Cons: Sassy and Smart had every chance to win the 1 1/16-mile Palm Beach (G3) but tired and was passed late. Now he is stepping up in class, going farther, and switching surfaces.

The Play: Pass.

#13 (AE) ROGUE ELEMENT (50-1) (+5000)

Pros: He has the pedigree to fit. He had his best career start last out when he went to the lead rather than trying to close from off the pace.

Cons: Also-eligible Rogue Element is still a maiden.

The Play: Pass.


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Laurie Ross

Laurie Ross - Expert Horse Race Handicapper

Laurie Ross is a Pedigree Analyst, Handicapper, a published author. As well as a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters Association. She has committed her passion for horses to the intensive study of pedigree and breeding theory for the last twenty years.

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