2019 MLB 2nd Half Betting – Great Teams To Bet And Follow
With the first half of the season coming to an end, I don’t think many would disagree the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox, and perhaps the entire team has been the most disappointing thing of 2019.
Boston reached half of the season 11 games behind the New York Yankees. As the World Series champs that’s one of the most unacceptable performances of a title holder in recent years.
What’s wrong with Chris Sale and why can’t he put together an entering outing to add some wins? The sale is 3-8 during the first half of the season in the same year where he signed a 5-year deal for $145M with the Red Sox. It’s fair to say, he’s not living to its contract early on.
On the other side of the coin is the Atlanta Braves. No team has been a better surprised than the Braves this season. We knew they had the talent and were putting together a very competitive team. However, in the eyes of many, they were still a couple of
years away from dominating the National League East division. I guess they jumped the fence early. It’s been quite the first half of the Major League Baseball season. Let’s try to see what the second half will bring.
Best Odds To Win American League Pennant
New York Yankees +160
The Yankees have made every move available over the last two seasons to get back on the top of the baseball world, and it’s been working.
New York opened the season at +300 to win the AL Pennant, and those odds have been slashed close to half right before the All-Start game.
The Yankees Probabilities
MyBookie.ag has listed the Yankees to win the AL Pennant at +160 with a 38% of implied probability of winning. No team scored more runs than the Yankees in the first half of the season, and their +111 run differential is also the best in the American League.
The question about the Yankees chances is not about putting together numbers against the other teams in the American League, but specifically against the Houston Astros. This leads me to…
Houston Astros +170
The Astros and the Yankees have been swapping the pole position to win the AL Pennant all season. They are the two main candidates with the best rosters on this side of the MLB picture.
New York’s offense overpowers Houston, but the Astros bullpen is slightly better. It’s a fun race to see unfold. Houston is listed +170 at MyBookie.ag with an implied probability of 37% of winning the AL Pennant.
The Astros At The Beginning Of The Season
They opened at +225 when the season started. The first 80+ games have been just the confirmation that they and the Yanks are head and shoulders above the rest of the teams.
What separates Houston over New York is their bullpen is clearly deeper and more talented. When October comes, you want a bullpen that can shut down a good batting lineup.
Best Division To Bet… The National League Central
The divisional race between the Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers should be epic once against; just like it was last season.
It’s not only the obvious rivalry between both ball clubs but the fact that these two cities are separated by very just a few miles. The hate is real between the two.
The Cubs can be found at +170 in the future odds to win the division at MyBookie.ag. The race is so tight that at the moment I’m putting this piece together, they have the same record.
The second half of the season promises to be both exciting and revealing. Chicago at +170 has an implied probability of 37% to collect this bet.
What About The Brewers
The Brewers are listed +190 with an implied probability of 34% to win the divisional title. Milwaukee does have a run-scoring problem that needs to be fixed ASAP.
From the teams at the top of the division or inside a close race, they are the only ones with a negative differential. Right now they are -7 in the run differential department, compared to the +54 that the Cubs have.
Two things come to my mind when I see this. How on earth are they fighting for the top seed in the division and is this sustainable? I don’t know the answer to the first one, but the answer to the second one is definitely no.
The National League Pennants Is The Dodgers To lose… Or Is It?
The Dodgers are not playing around this season. Along with the Yankees, they finished the first half of the season with the best record in the majors, plus the best run differential in all the MLB.
There is no reason to bet on them to win the National League West division because that ship has sailed. But we can still find Los Angeles +100 to win the National League Pennant.
They have been so much better than any other team in the National League that it makes me wonder how are they not a bigger favorite to win the NL Pennant? The reason is the Atlanta Braves and the past that hunts the Dodgers.
Los Angeles Can Win Big Games
Yes, they have dominated the National League over the past two seasons, but losing to the American League in consecutive World Series doesn’t help to turn around the narrative.
The Braves are the one team that can mess up a third straight Dodgers appearance in the World Series. At +280 to win the NL Pennant, Atlanta has 26% of implied probability to pull an upset over Los Angeles.
Those are good odds, but I can see Los Angeles becoming a more significant favorite in the second half of the season, giving the Braves a bigger value in the end.
If you like the Dodgers to be in a third straight World Series, this is the time to place that bet. This is team only going to get better in the second half.
2019 World Series Odds Movement
Los Angeles Dodgers +230
The Dodgers opened the season at +750 to win the World Series after losing the Championship against the Boston the year before.
The oddsmakers were not buying the Dodgers to win it all then. Not because they didn’t have talent but because the word “choke” has been associated with this team way too often lately.
Now at +230, that play has a 30% implied probability of becoming a winner at MyBookie.ag.
New York Yankees +320
The Yankees were the favorite entering the season at +580. The odds movement was expected, and so was the excellent season they are having so far.
As I mentioned above, they have to deal with the scrappy Astros before they can think about a potential World Series matchup with the Dodgers.
Houston Astros +350
Houston was right there with the Yankees at +630 when the season started. The Astros are the Yankees’ worst nightmare this season and the biggest threat to a World Series appearance.
I find the Astros the best bet on the board. They are the best team in my book and the second half of the season should be theirs to take.
Atlanta Braves +700
The evolution of the Braves this year has been remarkable. They opened at +1700 and were as high at +2500 to win the World Series.
At +700 there still plenty of value, although they are a long shot mostly because the Dodgers have been untouchable in the National League.
Minnesota Twins +1000
How come we haven’t mentioned the Twins as a contender before? It’s because the Yankees and the Astros exists.
Minnesota did open the season at +4500 with very little room to be excited, but they have proved the oddsmakers wrong. They remain the X-factor inside the American League.
World Series 2019 Odds – The Rest Of The Teams
|Tampa Bay Rays
|Boston Red Sox
|Los Angeles Angels
|Chicago White Sox
|Toronto Blue Jays
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