Finding the value at College Hoops is not picking the lowest seed to win March Madness. That’s just throwing money down the drain. It will be a 30-for-30 type of story if Colgate or Iona wins it all, but that’s just not going to happen. So let’s actually try to find some real value.
It might be hard to see the Volunteers as a team with a lot of value, considering they were a number one seed at some point in the season. But at +1300, Tennessee still has a lot of upsides. The Volunteers had a 13-game-winning run at some point in the season, and I won’t be surprised to see them doing it again. Tennessee has a little over 7% implied probability of winning the tournament, which is not bad at all. Especially considering the Volunteers have shown glimpses of being an excellent team. In their regular season resume are wins against Gonzaga and twice against Kentucky.
Florida State +3000
The Seminoles reached the ACC tournament final and were beaten by Duke in the end. That’s not a bad thing at all. Florida State showed during the tournament that when they get hot, this team’s confidence gets boosted to the top. They remain a long shot with slightly over a 3% of probability to win March Madness, but they do have the quality roster to make a deep run.
I like Auburn a lot, especially at +4000. The March Madness bracket statistics say the Tigers enter the tournament on an eight-game winning run, including a victory over Tennessee in the SEC title. Auburn has of the fastest backcourts in the nation, who will be a pain to stop in transition. The Tigers are definitely a long shot with an implied probability to win the title of over 2%. But if you are going to take a risk, you need to find a team that’s hot at the right time and that are the Tigers.
The Wolf Pack has the type of offense that will be a problem to contain, especially in elimination games. Their 29-4 record suggests they are a team accustom to win and to dominate. Their tournament loss against San Diego State got to them at just the perfect time to fix things. Last season they reached the Sweet Sixteen and had a fair shot at the Elite Eight. We know they can make a run and at +6500 the value is in front of us.
Big East teams don’t get much respect but keep an eye on Marquette and Markus Howard. He’s a prolific scorer who can take this team on his shoulders deep into the tournament. The Golden Eagles have other shooters that are good enough to help out Howard and Marquette shock the college basketball world.
Five Coaches to Bet on March Madness
Sometimes it is tough to put the finger on a possibly winning team or the other, based solely on the fact that most players stay in college one year or two. Instead, those who had become the face of the programs are the coaches. I find a value on betting on a coach who has proven us time and time again he can put together a winning team during March. Let’s take a look at some coaches to follow according to the March Madness statistics.
It’s hard to go against coach Mike Krzyzewski’s resume. He’s the ideal coach in college who has won in the past without having NBA talent on his side. Now, add it a freak athlete like Zion Williamson, and then you understand why Duke is such an overwhelming favorite. Coach K has won the tournament five times on his career starting in 1991 and getting his last one in 2015. The implied probability has Duke with 31% of winning the title once again this season. If you hate the Blue Devils, you are in for a rough ride
Michigan State +1200
Is there a more respected college basketball coach with just one title on his resume than Tom Izzo? Probably not. It’s been 18 years since Izzo, and the Spartans won the title, but don’t be shocked whenever you read, “be careful about betting against Michigan State.” It’s going to be all over the March Madness betting articles. The Spartans recently won the Big Ten title without being anywhere close as favorite. It’s all about Tom Izzo’s mantra to put his team a great position to succeed. Whenever you are facing Michigan State, the March madness seed statistics have no say in the conversation. It’s all about the coach.
Jay Wright might be the best-dressed coach in the entire basketball world. Wright might not have the best team at his disposal, but over the last three tournaments, he has won two titles. As champs, Villanova is not too worried about not being the favorites. As long as they have the savvy Jay Wright on their side, they will be dangerous.
Bill Self had better years than this one. Kansas started the season as the number one seed in all College Hoops, and now they are far away from the favorites’ conversation. Self has taken Kansas to three Final Fours and won the tournament back in 2008. Even if the Jayhawks have had one of their worst seasons, a team led by Bill Self is always a threat.
Jim Boeheim was involved in a tragic accident this season where he killed a pedestrian after a Syracuse game. It hasn’t been the most typical season for him and the Orange. Syracuse barely made it to the tournament, but now that they are in, they become a dangerous squad just by having Boeheim’s experience on their side. Jim Boeheim has taken Syracuse to five Final Fours with the most recent coming in 2016. He also led Cuse to their only National Title back in 2003. The implied probability for Syracuse to win the tournament is 0.66% which is close to none. But the Jim Boeheim effect shouldn’t be taken lightly. He’s one of the best coaches in the NCAA.
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