Super Bowl LIV Betting Preview – San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs
Super Bowl LIV features two franchises thirsty for success.
When the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs take on the field of the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, both will be looking to get rid of a 25-and 50-year drought, respectively, without winning the Super Bowl.
The game is very simple:
- The Niners have the most complete team of the NFL.
- The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, the best quarterback in the game.
It should be a terrific contest and one you should not miss the opportunity of betting on; if you are new to betting online we recommend you read our Super Bowl 2020 Betting Guide.
Let’s breakdown the Super Bowl LIV matchup.
What The Super Bowl Odds Say About The San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
|49ers (13-3)||vs.||Chiefs (12-4)|
|49ers +2 (-110)||Spread||Chiefs -2 (-110)|
|Over 55 (-110)||Total||Under 55 (-110)|
|Bet On The 2020 Super Bowl 49ers vs. Chiefs Game At MyBookie.ag|
The betting line for the Super Bowl 54 opened with the Chiefs -1. That’s the number that most sportsbooks are using across the board.
The one sports betting site with a different number is MyBookie.ag, which currently has Kansas City -2.
53% of the betting public is taking the Chiefs to cover the spread and become Super Bowl champs in Miami.
The game total is at 55 points. The over has hit in five of the last seven Super Bowl matchups. Last year was clearly not the case.
There are plenty of bets you can make on the Super Bowl 2020
Of course, the Super Bowl is an event like no other. Bettors can find a wide range of bets other than just the spread, the money line, or the game total.
Super Bowl LIV features a ton of propositional bets about the game or even about things outside it. You can bet on the length of the National Anthem, the color of the Gatorade that will be thrown to the winning coach, or the side of the coin that will decide who gets the ball first, just to name a few.
Let’s break down the Super Bowl 54 contest.
The San Francisco 49ers’ Edge Vs. The Chiefs
The Niners’ run to the Super Bowl was not something many saw coming early in the year. When the season started, San Francisco was +400 to win the NFC West division, behind the Rams (-190) and Seahawks (+390).
San Francisco 49ers’ Defense
San Francisco’s identity starts with their fantastic defense. They ended the regular season as the second-best total defense, slightly behind the New England Patriots, but talent-wise there wasn’t one better.
Their defensive line has five players that were selected in the first round of the draft. During their playoffs run, they recorded nine sacks over Vikings’ QB Kirk Cousins and Packers’ Aaron Rodgers.
Rookie defensive end Nick Bosa is the one who leads the unit with 3.0 sacks in the postseason. He’s an unblockable stud when he’s fully healthy and a change-changing talent.
What makes San Francisco different from many other defenses is they don’t have to send the blitz to win the battle in the trenches. Four guys are enough, while the rest of the D cover receivers.
The Niners defense is going against Patrick Mahomes, the best in the business right now, but also against an offensive line that has allowed just two sacks over Pat in the playoffs.
Another great feature of San Francisco’s phenomenal defense is they forced at least one turnover in all but two games during the regular season. During their massing wins against the Vikings and Packers, they combined for five turnovers forced.
San Francisco 49ers’ Offense
The 49ers defense allowed two players in the entire season to get over 300-passing yards. Drew Brees and Jared Goff were the two quarterbacks that were able to reach that mark in 2019. But San Francisco ended up winning both games.
That’s the other part of San Francisco that doesn’t get enough credit: their offense. The Niners offense usually takes a back seat when talking about this team, and it’s mostly because the defense is so good.
San Francisco has the second most scoring offense in the NFL during the regular season averaging 29.9 points per game. That average climbed to 32.0 points per game in the playoffs.
Shanahan’s right calls
Head coach Kyle Shanahan is an amazing play-caller, and he has shown it all season. His masterpiece came in the 37-20 win over the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship game.
Tailback Raheem Mostert recorded 220 rushing yards against the Pack alongside four touchdowns. Mostert won’t have such an easy game this time against the Chiefs, but Kansas City’s weak link still is their defense, despite their improvement over the last two months.
What About Jimmy Garoppolo?
I saved the QB talk for last because that’s the way the Niners operate. In the hierarchy, QB Jimmy Garoppolo usually goes at the bottom. It’s nothing against him, but San Francisco is so good, they do a lot of things well before we reach to the quarterback.
Most people will see Jimmy’s numbers in the NFC championship game, where he had only 77 yards and six passes completed and make a mockery out of it. But the truth is, Garoppolo can ball if needed.
Garoppolo is ready to go
Garoppolo is one of the runner-ups for MVP with good reason.
Three times this season, he had 4-TD games. His best one was against the New Orleans Saints. He posted 349 yards and four scores without getting intercepted against a legitimate contender on the road. The Niners stole a huge win over the Saints that day.
Make no mistake about it: if Jimmy G is needed, the guy can deliver in crunch time.
The Kansas City Chiefs’ Edge vs. The Niners
When you have the best quarterback in the NFL, then you basically have the edge over the rest of the teams.
In two full seasons as a starter, Patrick Mahomes has become the undisputable best quarterback in the league. Mahomes has thrown 87 touchdowns in two years and took a team that hasn’t been in the Super Bowl in 50 years back to the dance.
What is the most astonishing thing about Mahomes in the last two years? Well, there are a few to name.
Patrick Mahomes’ undisputable talent
He had a 50-touchdown season during his first year. He won the league’s MVP in 2018, and as I mentioned, he took the Chiefs to the Super Bowl. By the way, he’s only 24-years old.
Perhaps the most impressive thing is how calm he is during big moments. Mahomes hasn’t thrown an interception in four games during his playoffs’ career. Instead, he has been responsible for 12, which nine came in the current postseason run.
Odds to make MVP
Patrick Mahomes can beat you with his talented arm, his underrated scrambling abilities, or even just by playing chess with the defense. It’s hard to confuse him and make him turn the ball over.
Pat Mahomes is listed +130 to win the MVP award during the Super Bowl LIV. He’s by far the favorite to get the award.
The Chiefs’ Offense
Mahomes is not along in his quest to win his first Super Bowl. He surrounded by a fantastic lineup of offensive talent and a tremendous play-caller in Andy Reid.
Travis Kelce is dangerous on offense
TE Travis Kelce is Mahomes’ favorite weapon, and once you look the numbers, you will realize why. Kelce had 97 receptions, 1229 yards, and five touchdowns during the regular season. No other tight end had better numbers than him during the regular season or throughout the playoffs.
Kelce also exploded during the 51-31 win over the Houston Texans in the divisional round with ten catches, 134 yards, and three touchdowns.
Tyreek Hill is another dangerous wide receiver
If defenses cover Travis Kelce, Mahomes can always go long looking for WR Tyreek Hill. The wideout didn’t reach the 1000-yard mark this season but he is just as dangerous as in the past.
In the AFC Championship game against the Tennessee Titans, Hill proved to be a nightmare, catching five balls for 67 yards. Two of those catches were touchdowns.
Tailback Damien Williams is a running back that doesn’t get a lot of credit. He didn’t run for more than 50 yards in any of the two games in the playoffs, but he’s been a scoring machine. Williams has scored six TDs in the last three games.
The Chiefs’ defense
The Chiefs defense is the biggest question mark of this game, but this has been the case all season. It didn’t stop them from reaching the Super Bowl.
Kansas City’s defense allows a lot of yards and points. It hasn’t been a problem yet, but the Niners are a different animal. In the playoffs, they gave up 368.5 total yards and 27.5 points per game as an average.
They did hold Houston and Tennessee to 89.5 rushing yards per game. But a lot had to do with the fact that those teams lost sight of their initial game plan after seeing they couldn’t stop Mahomes.
Super Bowl LIV – San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
My editor doesn’t like it when I quote trends from the past, but in this context, I think I should:
- Five of the last seven underdogs in the Super Bowl have covered the spread.
- All five won the game outright.
- Super Bowl matchups are too close just to bet the favorite.
In this case, I think the oddsmakers have it wrong. It’s the flashy effect of Patrick Mahomes, a guy who has proven to be unstoppable. (I can’t blame them.)
However, the Niners have proven to be the best team in the NFL all season. The best thing is they haven’t slowed down at all during the playoffs. If anything, they have gotten better.
Can the 49ers really beat the Chiefs?
Their defense has the talent and scheme to give Mahomes a hard time during Super Bowl Sunday.
Besides having the best defense in the league, we don’t give enough credit to San Francisco’s offense. The team can score in bunches and can do it by both running or passing the football.
The Niners are the most complete team out of the two. My recommendation is to take San Francisco +105 on the moneyline as the main bet. I also like them +2 on the point spread.
Super Bowl 2020 Betting At MyBookie Sportsbook
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