Prop Bets For The First of Three 2020 United States Presidental Debates
Prop Bets for Tuesday Night’s Debate
The first presidential debate will take place Tuesday night and there are some rather interesting prop bets to consider. President Donald Trump still trails former Vice President Joe Biden in the polls. So a lot of the prop bets are centered around what the candidates will say during the debate.
For starters, Trump is now at +100 odds to Biden’s -130 to win the election. This means that Trump will be feeling the pressure.
|Winner of the 2020 United States Presidential Election|
|Biden Wins The US Presidency||-130|
|Trump Wins the US Presidency||+100|
There’s no telling what he might say when he’s up against the wall with millions of Americans watching.
Especially considering the U.S. has been the worst country at responding to the largest pandemic in about a hundred years. (According to NPR, half of the U.S. is currently seeing daily increases in COVID-19 cases.)
What Might Trump Say During the First Presidential Debate?
Biden is going to have his hands full, come Tuesday night, during the first presidential debate when he has to make complete sentences on the world stage. Trump is potentially going to have to capitalize on certain buzz words.
These include attacking Biden personally.
MyBookie is giving a slight favorite for a ‘No’ bet, at -160, that Trump won’t say ‘Sleepy Joe’. At +120 for a ‘Yes’ bet, I think that’s a little low—but it’s understandable. I mean, it’s hard to imagine Trump would say something like that during a debate.
|Will Donald Trump Call Joe Biden “Sleepy Joe”|
But Trump is going to need at least a few zingers during the first presidential debate. This one has been his favorite thus far, so I’d be surprised if he didn’t say it. It might be worth a small bet, taking the points.
The president has been utterly unpredictable, after all.
And then, there’s Biden’s basement. Will Trump be mentioning that?
Again, the ‘No’ bet is favored at -160 with +120 for a ‘Yes’. Hard to imagine the president mentioning the other candidate’s basement during a presidential debate.
|Will There Be Any Talk Of Joe Biden’s Basement|
It would still be just as surprising if he didn’t say something about it. Biden has been hunkered down there for months. And Trump detests that kind of cowardice.
So these bets are at least worth something small. If nothing else, at least for the laugh.
Trump Gets Political
Identity politics have been playing a major part in the 2020 election. Trump has become somewhat of a master at this, even though the Democrats use this card much more often against Republicans.
First up is China, which is a political card that Republicans and Democrats seem to agree on for the most part. Trump and Biden both have condemned China this year, politically and economically.
So it’s safe to assume that China could be mentioned when the candidates argue about the economy. Or COVID-19, which Trump bombastically blames China for—instead of himself. And his current administration.
There’s a 6.5 over/under for how many times Trump will say ‘China’. That’s obviously expected to be a hot debate topic with the over heavily favored at -500. The under is set at +300.
|Over/Under Bets on How Many Times Trump Says “China”|
I think these odds are a little lopsided, only because there are so many domestic issues for Trump and Biden to debate. I can see Trump saying ‘China’ five times. So I’d go with the under, again betting small.
However, there might be a bigger phrase for the president on Tuesday night. A ‘Yes’ bet at -700 for whether or not Trump will say ‘anarchists’ is a certainty.
|Bets on If Trump Says “Anarchists”|
Can’t you just see him articulating it with one hand cast to his side almost like he was spelling it in mid-air like he was in elementary school again? I sure can.
Trump’s Focus on ‘Antifa’
From ‘anarchists’, we move on to another focus of Trump’s reelection campaign: ‘Antifa’. This group might be a mainstay in the president’s rhetoric during the first presidential debate.
Trump will be jabbing at Democrats any way he can for his campaign to boost its poll numbers by motivating their base.
One of the closest prop bets is the 4.5 over/under regarding how many times Trump will be saying ‘Antifa’. For some reason, the under is favored at -220 while the over is the underdog at +155.
|4.5 Over/Under Bets on How Many Times Trump Says “Antifa”|
I find it hard to believe the president will be saying ‘Antifa’ less than four times. I’d go with the over here. I can practically hear Trump saying ‘Antifa’ while he’s getting mic’d up.
“They’re all over the place,” I can see Trump pleading, saying it seventeen times if he has to.
Trump’s Focus on Portland and Seattle
Trump will also be focusing on liberal strongholds in Portland and Seattle. I think there are some more lopsided bets regarding these two cities.
First, the over/under is 2.5 for how many times Trump might be saying ‘Portland’. The over is favored here at -280 while the under is rated +190.
|2.5 Over/Under Bets on How Many Times Trump Will Mention’Portland’|
Not bad. It’s a tough wager, though, but I like the over here just because of recent events. Trump’s base is super butthurt about what’s been going on in Portland.
And with unemployment still so high, they’ve got nothing better to do but ride their pick-up trucks into town, armed with American flags and paintball guns.
Seattle is another potential political showdown for the debate. The over/under for how many times Trump will say ‘Seattle’ is 1.5. This is another tricky bet. With the under favored at -200, the over is +150.
|1.5 Over/Under Bets on How Many Times Trump Will Mention’Seattle’|
Even though the odds are somewhat close, I think Trump will be saying plenty about Portland and Seattle. I think this one is my favorite underdog prop bet, so far. Seattle, Seattle, Seattle.
That’s all it will take to get Trump’s base fired up.
Also, there’s a ‘Yes’ bet at +425 against a ‘No’ bet at -800 with respect to whether or not Trump will mention Ted Wheeler by name. That’s Portland’s mayor.
|Bets on If Trump Says Mentions ‘Ted Wheeler’ by Name|
Not sure what the oddsmakers were thinking on this one. But Trump loves to call out mayors by name.
That’s one helluva payoff.
What Might Biden Say During the Debate?
I almost forgot about Sleepy Joe. It’s easy to do, considering the way Trump debates and has answered reporters’ questions while Biden has hidden in Delaware most of this year.
(There are still a few more Trump prop bets, check ‘em out.)
The first and most obvious prop bet for what Biden might say is whether or not he’ll call Trump a ‘racist’.
This has been a card the Democrats have been playing since 2016.
With favored odds at -250 for ‘No’, and +170 for ‘Yes’—I’d once again be surprised if Biden didn’t call Trump a racist. Although he might do it passive-aggressively or indirectly.
|Bets on If Joe Biden calls Donald Trump a Racist|
But I think Democrats will be expecting Biden to call Trump a racist, once and for all, on-stage at the debate. Even though he probably won’t.
Another favorite, at -300/+200, is that Biden will be calling Trump a ‘liar’.
This perhaps goes in tandem with Biden saying the term ‘fact check’. At -160 for ‘Yes’ to +120 for ‘No’, Biden seems a little more predictable than Trump.
|Bets on If Joe Biden calls Donald Trump a Liar|
Biden will want to fight fair, at least on paper. So I think these prop bets regarding what he might say during the debate is like vanilla ice cream left in the freezer for six months.
Just throw it out…
(Although I could potentially see Biden forgetting to call Trump a liar, which might be worth the +200.)
Biden’s Potential Virtue-Signaling
Of course, we can’t forget Biden’s potential virtue-signaling. This is going to be centered around Trump’s COVID-19 response or lack thereof.
Biden is strongly favored at -1100/+550 to mention the number of COVID-10 deaths. However, he’s favored at -600/+350 to NOT misquote the number of deaths from the pandemic by over a hundred thousand.
|Bets on If Joe Biden Mentions The Number of COVID-19 Deaths in The US|
If either of these turns out to be underdog hits, then there’s going to be something seriously wrong with the Biden campaign.
|Bets on If Joe Biden Mentions Russia|
They’ll need to stick to facts. So obviously, there’s also the Russia card.
Who needs facts when you can just say ‘Russia’? The odds for ‘Yes’ are -700 and +400 for ‘No’, regarding whether or not Biden will mention the homeland of Trump’s ‘puppet master’.
And a final bet, although there’s a few more for Biden, is how many times he’ll be saying ‘Antifa’. The over/under (+300/-500) for Biden here is 1.5.
|1.5 Over/Under Bets on How Many Times Biden Says “Antifa”|
I don’t really anticipate that Biden will be saying much about ‘Antifa’, other than in response to what Trump will have to say. So it’s possible that a small bet might be worthwhile here as well.
Either way, I’m anticipating Trump to steal the show. He’s got the most to lose/gain. And as we all know by now, that’s just when the president is at his most dangerous.
Especially with his words.