Trump’s Chances Of Winning In 2020 Against The Top Democrats
The 2020 Presidental Election race seems to produce endless headlines. Every debate or Trump tweet starts a back and forth between the president and his challengers. We have a long way to go before November 2020, but betting odds on who will win the election and the Democratic Party’s nominee have been out for quite some time.
And, they’re constantly changing after each of the debates and current political events. Here’s a look at how Trump stacks up against his Democratic challengers, at least, for now.
Trump Vs. Democrats – Analyzing The Poll Numbers
According to an Emerson College poll released on August 6, 2019, for The Dallas Morning News, former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders both led President Donald Trump by two percentage points for the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.
Trump, however, led other top Democrats: Beto O’Rourke, Peter Buttigieg, and Elizabeth Warren by four percentage points.
The poll also reported Trump to be ahead of Julián Castro and Kamala Harris by six and eight percentage points, respectively.
Breaking Down The Polling Numbers
The polling covered 1,033 registered voters between August 1–3, with a margin of error of three percent.
Of those surveyed:
- 44% voted for Trump in the 2016 election.
- 37% voted for Hillary Clinton.
- Republican voters comprised 40% of the poll.
- Democrats made up 36%.
- 24% of respondents fell into the Independent/other category.
The poll showed a 49% approval rating in Trump’s favor, while 44% said they disapproved of the job Trump was doing as President.
The Emerson College poll also asked 400 registered voters who they would vote for in the Democratic presidential primary.
- Biden polled at 28%.
- O’Rourke earned 19%.
- Sanders earned 16%.
- Warren polled at 14%.
- Buttigieg took 7%.
- Harris earned 5%
The poll had a margin of error at 4.9%.
Democrats Vs. Republicans
Another poll conducted between August 1–4 by the University of Texas at Tyler’s Center for Opinion Research surveyed 1,261 registered voters.
39% said they considered themselves Democrats, while 38% responded as Republicans.
How Did Democrats Poll?
454 voters responded as Democrats.
O’Rourke led with 25% claiming that he would be their first selection for a candidate in the Democratic primary.
Biden polled at 23%, while Sanders had 16% and Warren earned 10%.
Odds Of Trump Winning Against Democrats
Trump’s chances of winning in 2020 against top Democrats was foiled by Sanders; who led by five percentage points.
Biden also had a lead on Trump, with 41% of 1,255 respondents responding that they would vote for him as opposed to Trump’s 37%.
However, the polling showed that O’Rourke had the greatest lead on Trump. Of 1,257 registered voters, 43% responded that they would vote for O’Rourke, while 37% said they would vote for Trump.
Trump Still Beating Other Democrats
Against other top Democrats, Trump had a lead on Buttigieg of six percentage points. His lead on Harris was three percent, while Trump led Warren by only one percentage point.
Did Trump Do A Good Job While In Office?
39% responded that they approved of Trump’s handling of his job as President, while fifty-three percent said they disapproved.
The poll had a margin of error at 2.8%.
Division Due To Trump’s Recent Failings
These numbers highlight the division of American politics in the heartland of Texas. This comes after a shooting in El Paso, as Trump failed to label it as an act of domestic terrorism.
O’Rourke’s strong response in condemning the President’s rhetoric of repeating that there was an “invasion” taking place on America’s southern border — and the media’s complicity in parroting those claims — brought some clarity to voters about Trump’s callousness.
Some Extra Callousness On The Side:
He claimed the Dayton shooting had happened in Toldeo. And he left El Paso with a $500,000 unpaid bill for a recent rally there.
O’Rourke Dishes It Out At Trump
O’Rourke told Morning Joe that Trump’s rhetoric was akin to “Nazi Germany”.
“Of course he’s racist,” he said, “he’s been racist since day one.”
Polling In Texas Affected
These combative words likely had an impact on the polling that took place in Texas in the first few days of August 2019.
However, many voters also made it clear that they wanted O’Rourke and Castro to drop out of the race and run in Congressional elections, instead. It doesn’t seem like O’Rourke has considered that.
O’Rourke Currently Has Better Odds
O’Rourke seems to have increased his chances of winning after the way he handled the El Paso shooting. This goes along with the fact that Trump is unable to articulate any condemnation for domestic terrorism. This is why O’Rourke’s poll numbers adjusted to that sense of duty. Unlike the President’s trail of tears.
Taking A Small Lead
I think O’Rourke will split the difference in poll numbers and take a two percent lead in future surveys. Especially after the next Democratic debate takes place in Houston on September 12–13.
Will O’Rourke be able to take that momentum on a national level against Trump? Probably not.
Trump Betting Odds Of Winning 2020 Presidential Election
Among top Democrats:
There are still too many candidates to decide who he’ll be facing at the polls next year. One thing is for sure, there is still a long way to go.
Sanders Takes On Gun Control
As Trump heads to El Paso (as of this writing), Sanders’ response to the acts of domestic terrorism also looks like a bitter pill for the President, in hindsight.
Sanders told MSNBC that stronger gun legislation was necessary. This is done to stop the repetitive acts of barbarism for which the U.S. is grossly unique for.
Sanders called for a ban on assault weapons and denounced the National Rifle Association’s lockstep with the Republican Party in blocking gun reform, which the American people are desperately demanding.
Video Games And Mental Illness
Contrast this with Trump’s iteration that “violent video games” and “mental illness” were the culprits for America’s mass shootings epidemic that has taken place, now, for decades.
Although Trump didn’t allocate the recent shooting sprees to domestic terrorism, he did make a statement barring “racism, bigotry and white supremacy,” saying that “sinister ideologies must be defeated” and “hatred has no place in America.”
Trump said that,
“Mental illness and hatred pulls the trigger, not the gun.”
He then went on to misspeak about the location of one of the shootings. Likely a clear sign that what went into the President’s teleprompter was also a mistake.
His public remarks on the shootings were absent any analysis of gun laws in America.
Democrats Gaining A Lead In The Polls
Without any clearly-stated purpose to take action against the now 255 mass shootings in 2019. Trump offered vague propositions of strengthening society that is now splintering among political dispositions and partisan bickering. It’s clear that the President and his actions and rhetoric are at odds with each other. Much like the rest of the country.
Even with the bloodshed and tough-knuckled speeches, it doesn’t look like any of the top Democrats are pulling too far ahead of Trump in the polls. However, there will be plenty of ground to be gained.
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