MMA Betting Strategy

Khabib vs. Conor - MMA Betting Strategy

The best strategy when betting on MMA is centered around learning the basics of sports betting and increasing your knowledge of the UFC and mixed martial arts.

Picking winners in UFC matchups come down to breaking down the fights and looking at the odds and developing your personalized UFC betting strategies.

Before diving into MMA betting, it’s essential to develop an MMA betting strategy that will lead you to profitability when wagering on one of the hottest sports in the world.

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Avoid Betting On Huge Favorites

It’s worth saying this tip isn’t a hard and fast rule. You can still bet favorites in MMA and if you feel like the oddsmakers are undervaluing a significant or moderate favorite.

The breakeven percentage on these bets is much lower than when you’re wagering on underdogs. For instance, a -200 favorite must win 66.67% of the time for the bet to profitable. If we go to a -300 favorite, this goes to 75% of the time.

Oddsmakers still aren’t as sharp when it comes to making MMA odds compared to other sports. The public is also often infatuation with big favorites, which drives up their price. Be careful laying a lot to win a little.

One way to do this is parlaying a massive favorite with other wagers, such as underdogs. This decreases your risk amount, and if the fighter wins, along with your other bets, then you can still grab an excellent payout while staking less.

Bet With Your Mind, Not Your Heart

We all have our favorite sports teams, players, and MMA fighters. However, it’s important to properly evaluate each matchup with the odds in mind and not let your personal feelings or biases get involved when betting on MMA.

Memories of a fighter’s prime may be firmly entrenched in your consciousness, but it’s vital that you separate the glory days from where they are now. Ronda Rousey was dominant until she wasn’t. Anderson Silva had a similar fall from grace.

Those who saw the signs of a declined profited massively at the betting windows. Don’t let past glory influence your decisions going forward. Evaluate each match without emotion and instead, with the odds in mind.

There Is No Substitute For Research

The best way to become a successful MMA gambler is research. Of course, a basic understanding of MMA and betting odds are required to win at betting sports, but the rest is learning the ins and outs of the competition. If you’re already a fan, this is easy.

But you can take it a step further by looking at the odds of each match and analyzing the line movement. There you will see how the odds changed from the opening number to the closing number. Also, watch as much MMA as possible.

This can go beyond UFC, as fighters must fight quite a bit under other promotions before they make it to the big time. There is no substitute for knowledge, especially for a niche sport, like mixed martial arts.

Consider Cage Size

This is an afterthought for many who bet MMA. Few consider the size of the cages when analyzing matchups. Many don’t even know that the UFC uses two different cage sizes. The size of the cage factors heavily when handicapping a fight.

The most commonly used cage is 756 square feet while the smaller and less-commonly used cage is 518 square feet. The smaller cages will lead to more exchanges and will be negative for fighters that base their attack around lots of movement.

More hitting and close quarters also mean the fight may have a higher likelihood of ending early. The larger cage is more ideal for a fighter that is moving around a lot and base a lot of their ability on their cardiovascular strength.

Patience is the key with more square feet. The match comes down to points and lasting longer are more likely when fighting in the 746-foot cage.

Analyze Fighting Styles

Every fighter will have a style that their primary means of fighting. Understanding the primary fighting styles of each fighter and how they match up against their opponents is vital to success at wagering on MMA.

Specific styles match up well against others, while some do not. A submission or wrestler that looks to take his opponent to the ground may have a harder time against a striker that has a much stronger reach.

Familiarize yourself with fighting styles and the styles that the top fighters use and how they match up against each other.

Learn To Use Cryptocurrencies

Learn to deposit and bet with cryptocurrencies instead of traditional deposit and withdrawal methods will give you a leg up on other sports bettors.

It’s also especially helpful when wagering on MMA markets, as you will be able to line shop for all sorts of betting markets, including outrights and propositions.

Using cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, makes it far easier to move money around. There are no fees for deposits and withdrawals, and payouts are processed in a matter of hours in many cases.

This allows you always to get the best price and move money around to multiple sportsbooks easily. It will also drastically cut down on withdrawal costs, which can cost gamblers 5-15% of their profits using traditional methods.

Be Selective If You Are Betting Favorites

You don’t always have to avoid all heavy favorites, but it’s vital to be selective when you’re laying a hefty price on a line that may be heavily influenced by the public.

Besides, let’s remember that all of these huge favorites were once underdogs trying to take down a champion. Upsets are much more common than most think.

Few predicted that Ronda Rousey would be upset by Holly Holm at UFC 193 in November 2014. Rousey was a massive favorite, going at -1000 or more at some sportsbooks. Holm was a +600 underdog.

This is a typical MMA betting market between two fighters. The odds are listed in moneyline format. Masvidal and Diaz were closely matched according to the oddsmakers, unlike many fights where there is a large favorite garnering most of the betting action.

Jorge Masvidal vs. Nate Diaz
-165 Moneyline +135
O 4.5 Rounds Total U 4.5 Rounds

There are ties in UFC, but they are rare due to their scoring system and the nature of MMA. If you bet on a fighter and the match is a draw, the bet will be graded as a push and all stakes returned.

The over/under listed on the table allows bettors to bet the number of rounds a fight will go. Rounds usually last five minutes. Normal fights last three rounds but title fights go five rounds.

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