Brexit 2.0: Sports Bettors Profit off Trump’s Victory
Donald Trump won the election last night in a stunning upset, not just per political pundits and polls, but in worldwide betting markets. We analyzed the presidential election last week in terms finding +EV wagers, but few expected this outcome, especially how the market looked before the election.
Hillary Clinton was -600 at many online sportsbooks before the odds started changing as things got further into the night. Trump led early and he did not relent. Despite losing the popular vote, he won most of the key battleground states and notched huge upsets over Clinton in states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
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Trump’s live betting odds changed from a large underdog, to even money, to a small favorite and then as the hours went on, into a massive favorite. The now president elect was -8000 shortly before Hillary Clinton called him to concede the election.
It’s unclear how the sportsbooks finished with this election. The market was way off in their prediction, but there were large bets coming in on both sides early and late. Some bettors took Trump a year and a half ago, which paid out nicely.
This election is similar to ‘Brexit’, where the polls and oddsmakers alike got the UK referendum to leave the European wrong. It’s not a shock that many of those who placed wagers on the UK leaving were the same ones betting on Donald Trump.
It’s clear that betting markets in the political realm are not nearly as efficient as those in other areas, such as major professional sports. PaddyPower, a large Irish bookmaker, paid out all Hillary Clinton bettors as winners on October 28th. They will now have to foot the cost of paying out both sides.