NFL Betting: 6 Tips for Profit
Breaking down the games each week can be an arduous process. There is no short cut to success at beating the oddsmakers in NFL contests. At Safest Betting Sites, betting the NFL is one of our strongest areas.
These NFL betting tips will help you identify value on the betting board. As always, line shopping is of paramount importance. To be successful at NFL betting, you must have access to multiple sportsbooks. Bitcoin is an excellent way to move money around quickly and without incurring fees.
Best NFL Betting Sites 2018
Tip For Profit #1Favorites Early, Underdogs Wait
Some sportsbooks don’t post their NFL odds for the following week until late Monday or early Tuesday morning, but many post them a lot sooner. There are typically odds available for next week’s games that can be viewed Sunday evening, after the late afternoon games end.
These odds are ones that haven’t been hit with any line movement just yet. If you can anticipate where the odds might go, it may be worth pouncing early. Waiting on spots where you think the public may move the odds in your favor makes sense. Likewise, if the initial odds look like they will move in the opposite direction, then betting now may be the right course of action.
Predicting line movement can be hard. There is no doubt you’re going to place a bet one week, and a better line will be available by Friday. Still, there is real value in hitting the odds early, particularly with football. As you bet more, anticipating line movement will get easier.
Bet on the Underdogs at Bovada
Bovada is one of the best NFL betting sites for betting football underdogs and easily the top choice for U.S. sports bettors. They may take until Tuesday morning to post next weeks lines, but they offer competitive prices up until kickoff Sunday morning. They’re line shades towards public betting action make them a clear sportsbook not to be without for football. Sign up today for a 50% Bonus up to $250 on your first deposit.
Tip For Profit #2Take Advantage of Early Season Bias
This is particularly the case for bad teams or teams that are regarded as poor by the betting public. Everything in the sports media today is sensationalized. The team that starts the season 0-2 or 0-3 is automatically one of the worst teams in the league and should be targeted every week. That is, at least in the minds of the betting public.
The talent gap in the league is a narrow one. The betting public is quick to write off teams that have poor starts or poor performances.
Too many gamblers base their expectations for teams on what they saw the previous week. That’s vital to remember when evaluating the betting board. It may seem counterintuitive to target teams that have performed poorly recently, but capitalizing off others overreacting to the week’s previous results is one of the best ways to find value in the lines.
Tip For Profit #3Examine Motivations
As explained above, teams coming off massive losses are often worthy of bets, but there are other spots to watch for when looking at the betting market. Examining the motivations of each team week is vital to success in NFL betting markets.
One of the biggest misconceptions about NFL players and athletes, in general, is that they are always giving 100% effort. One may think since they are being paid millions of dollars that they are always giving maximum effort, but they’re human beings just like everyone else. There are highs and lows to every season and spots where teams are less prepared or motivated than others.
Look-ahead spots are one of the best situations to bet against teams. The scenario is one of that NFL teams find themselves in at least once a year.
Say the Pittsburgh Steelers have a game against the lowly Tennessee Titans this week. The week after, they have a Sunday Night Football matchup against the division rival Ravens. The Steelers game against the Titans is a look-ahead spot otherwise known as a trap game. In this scenario, considering the Titans that week makes a lot of sense.
Let-down spots are similar spots, but come after a team has a critical and/or emotional victory the previous week.
Let’s say the Steelers successfully defeat the Ravens on Sunday Night Football the previous week. The game was a hard-fought battle, and Pittsburgh won the game in overtime. Their next game on the schedule is an away game against the Detroit Lions.
It’s a non-divisional game after an emotional victory. In this type of spot, the Steelers may be primed for a letdown. Considering Detroit as a potential wager is an excellent idea.
There are plenty of other spots where it makes sense to target teams based on their motivations or game situation. The more you bet football, the more experienced you will become at gauging each team’s motivation for the coming week.
Tip For Profit #4Public Betting Percentages
We discuss fading the public as a betting strategy extensively at Safest Betting Sites. We don’t recommend using this approach for all sports or betting against the public in every spot, but it certainly has its place in NFL markets.
In the above link, we touch on reverse line movement, which is extremely common in NFL points and totals markets. Reverse line movement is when the public is heavily invested on one side (moneyline, total, or point spread) but the line moves the other direction.
Fade the Public Example
For instance, if 80% of the bets are coming on the 49ers at -8, but the line moves to -7.5, we have a case of reverse line movement. The reason why the bookies move the line is due to sharp action coming in on the opposite team.
The odds not moving at all doesn’t technically qualify as reverse line movement either, but it is still telling sign if the public is heavily invested in the odds and they don’t move at all. In the same scenario, the 49ers still may be worth considering as a wager even if the odds stay at -8.
Public Betting Affects the Line
When it comes to smaller market sports, public betting patterns aren’t taken as seriously and don’t move odds. However, the NFL is widely bet by the masses, and the public has a major effect on odds movements.
It’s not that the oddsmakers respect the betting public’s opinion when it comes to handicapping football. They firmly do not. They are just betting so much that they have to adjust their odds.
Fading the public as a betting strategy doesn’t work if you simply bet against the consensus every time. You have to pick your spots. The NFL is excellent for using this strategy especially when it comes to high-profile games, such as primetime football (Sunday Night, Thursday Night, and Monday Night) and the playoffs.
Tip For Profit #5Look at Totals
NFL totals take more betting action than totals in any sport, but they do take a backseat to point spreads for the vast majority of bettors. Many take a look at the betting board with their eyes transfixed on point spread markets and don’t give betting totals a second thought.
That’s a big mistake. Picking which side is going to cover or win the game is harder than figuring how a game might go from a scoring perspective. The oddsmakers agree with this sentiment.
For instance, BetOnline will take up to $25,000 on NFL sides, but just $15,000 on NFL totals. Most sportsbooks across the industry have similar maximum bet structures regarding totals compared to point spreads and moneylines. The bookmakers know totals are easier to beat that point spreads, hence the smaller limit.
In our NFL betting strategy article, we explain why bettors should lean towards betting unders and underdogs more than overs and favorites. Start making a habit of looking at totals first and then moving on to point spread and moneyline markets.
Tip For Profit #6Add Proposition Bets to Your Arsenal
We cover NFL propositions extensively, but they’re worth a mention here because they are another +EV market that many bettors don’t target. In most cases, props are released on Sunday mornings or late Saturday for the Sunday games. This allows for plenty of time to place bets on sides and totals and focus on props on Sunday mornings.
Sportsbooks are vulnerable to sharps in prop markets. Betting limits usually aren’t more than $500 per market, but they’re an excellent bankroll builder. There are regularly props that are mispriced or rogue and a lot of variation regarding odds between different sportsbooks.
Best Props at NFL Betting Sites
For US bettors, the best two sportsbooks to bet props are Bovada and BetOnline.
The Bovada Sportsbook gets the slight edge as the best NFL betting site due to soften odds but comparable numbers in markets. Bovada has a smaller rollover, but a lot less in freeplay with a 50% up to $250 on your first deposit. You can start placing your prop bets with free cash when you sign up at Bovada.
BetOnline has just as many props available as Bovada, and offers competitive betting limits. They offer a much larger deposit bonus at 50% up to $2,500 on your first deposit. Sign up and make your first deposit at BetOnline.ag and get access to all of the NFL props they offer.
Dozens of Props for International Bettors
If you’re betting internationally the best NFL betting site for you would be betway has tons of markets and props, comparable to anywhere else online. They also take larger betting limits than most bookmakers on propositions.