NFL Betting Tips
There is no shortcut to success at beating the oddsmakers in NFL contests. However, football betting is one of our strongest areas here at SBS.
Breaking down the games each week can be an arduous process, therefore, we are sharing the best 6 NFL betting tips on how to make profitable bets week after week.
Our NFL sports betting advice will help you identify value on the betting board and make smarter decisions.
Continue reading to start placing smart NFL bets and making a profit!
Our Best Advice On NFL Betting
Best NFL Betting Sites 2021
Pro Tip #1Favorites Early vs Underdogs Wait
Some sportsbooks don’t post their NFL odds for the following week until late Monday or early Tuesday morning, but many post them a lot sooner.
There are typically odds available for next week’s games that can be viewed Sunday evening after the late afternoon games end.
These markets are the ones that haven’t been hit with any line movement just yet. If you can anticipate where the odds might move against you, it may be worth pouncing early.
Anticipating Line Movement
Waiting on spots where you think the public may move the odds in your favor makes sense. Likewise, if the initial odds look like they will move in the opposite direction, then betting now may be the right course of action.
Predicting line movement can be hard. There is no doubt you’re going to place a bet one week, and a better line will be available by Friday.
Still, there is real value in hitting the odds early, particularly with football. As you bet more, anticipating line movement will get easier.
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Pro Tip #2Take Advantage of NFL Early Season Bias
This kind of NFL betting tips work particularly well on bad teams or teams that are regarded as poor by the betting public.
Everything in the sports media today is sensationalized. The team that starts the season 0-2 or 0-3 is automatically one of the worst teams in the league and should be targeted every week.
That is, at least in the minds of the betting public. The talent gap in the league is a narrow one.
The betting public is quick to write off teams that have poor starts or poor performances. Too many gamblers base their expectations for teams on what they saw the previous week. That’s vital to remember when evaluating the betting board.
It may seem counterintuitive to target teams that have performed poorly recently, but capitalizing off others overreacting to the previous week’s results is one of the best ways to find value in the lines.
Pro Tip #3Examine Motivations
As explained above, teams coming off massive losses are often worthy of bets, but there are other spots to watch for when looking at the betting market.
Examining the team’s motivations is one of the best American football betting tips that can bring you success.
One of the biggest misconceptions about NFL players – and athletes in general – is that they are always giving 100% effort. One may think that, since they are being paid millions of dollars to perform, but they’re human beings just like everyone else.
There are highs and lows to every season and spots where teams are less prepared or motivated than others.
Look-ahead spots are one of the best situations to bet against teams. This scenario is one that NFL teams find themselves in at least once a year.
Say the Pittsburgh Steelers have a game against the lowly Tennessee Titans this week. The week after, they have a Sunday Night Football matchup against the division rival Ravens.
The Steelers game against the Titans is a look-ahead spot, otherwise, known as a trap game. In this scenario, considering the Titans that week makes a lot of sense.
Let-down spots are similar situations, but come after a team has a critical and/or emotional victory the previous week.
Let’s say the Steelers successfully defeat the Ravens on Sunday Night Football the previous week. The game was a hard-fought battle, and Pittsburgh won the game in overtime.
Their next game on the schedule is an away game against the Detroit Lions. It’s a non-divisional game after an emotional victory.
In this type of spot, the Steelers may be primed for a letdown. Considering Detroit as a potential wager, again, isn’t a bad direction to go.
There are plenty of other spots where it makes sense to target teams based on their motivations or game situation. The more you bet football, the more experienced you will become at gauging each team’s motivation for the coming week.
Pro Tip #4Public Betting Percentages
We discuss fading the public as a betting strategy extensively at Safest Betting Sites.
We don’t recommend using this approach for all sports or betting against the public in every spot, but it certainly has its place in NFL markets.
In the link above, we touch on reverse line movement, an NFL gambling tip that is extremely common in points and totals markets.
Reverse line movement is when the public is heavily invested on one side (moneyline, total, or point spread betting) but the line moves the other direction.
Fade The Public Example
For instance, if 80% of the bets are coming on the 49ers at -7, but the line moves to -6.5, we have a case of reverse line movement.
The reason why the bookies move the line is due to sharp action coming in on the opposite team.
The odds not moving at all doesn’t technically qualify as reverse line movement either, but it is still a telling sign if the public is heavily invested in the odds and they don’t move at all.
In the same scenario, the 49ers still may be worth considering as a wager even if the odds stay at -8.
Public Betting Affects the Line
When it comes to smaller market sports, public betting patterns aren’t taken as seriously and don’t move odds. However, the NFL is widely bet by the masses, and the public has a major effect on odds movements.
It’s not that the oddsmakers respect the betting public’s opinion when it comes to handicapping football. They firmly do not. They are just betting so much that they have to adjust their odds to avoid being overexposed on one side.
Fading the public as a betting strategy doesn’t work if you simply bet against the consensus every time. You have to pick your spots.
The NFL is excellent for using this strategy especially when it comes to high-profile games, such as primetime football (Sunday Night, Thursday Night, and Monday Night) and the playoffs.
Pro Tip #5Look at NFL Totals
NFL totals take more betting action than totals in any other sport, but they do take a backseat to point spreads for the vast majority of bettors.
Many take a look at the betting board with their eyes transfixed on point spread markets and don’t give betting totals a second thought. That’s a big mistake.
Picking which side is going to cover or win the game is harder than figuring how a game might go from a scoring perspective. The oddsmakers agree with this sentiment.
For instance, BetOnline will take up to $25,000 on NFL sides, but just $15,000 on NFL totals. Most sportsbooks across the industry have similar maximum bet structures regarding totals compared to point spreads and moneylines.
The bookmakers know totals are easier to beat that point spreads, hence the smaller limit. Keep in mind that bettors should lean towards betting unders and underdogs more than overs and favorites.
Start making a habit of looking at totals first and then moving on to NFL point spread and NFL money line markets.
Pro Tip #6Add NFL Proposition Bets to Your Arsenal
We cover NFL propositions extensively, but they’re worth a mention here because they are another profitable market that many bettors don’t target.
In most cases, props are released on Sunday mornings or late Saturday for the Sunday games. This allows for plenty of time to place bets on sides and totals and focus on props on Sunday mornings.
Sportsbooks are vulnerable to sharps in prop markets. Betting limits usually aren’t more than $500 per market, but they’re an excellent bankroll builder.
There are regularly props that are mispriced or rogue and a lot of variation regarding odds between different sportsbooks.
Apply These NFL Betting Tips At Top Sportsbooks
Below, you will find our most trusted online sportsbooks where you can apply the above NFL betting tips to make profitable bets.
Choosing the best site is vital for potential betting profits and making sure that you receive your winnings during the season.
|Rank||NFL Sportsbooks||Deposit Bonus||Highlights||Get Started|
|1||BetNow||Deposit Bonus 100% Up To $500||
|2||Bovada||Deposit Bonus 50% Up To $250||
|3||MyBookie||Deposit Bonus 50% Up To $1,000||