NFL Best Bets Against The Spread – Week 4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 Vs. Chicago Bears -3 Total: 46.5
The Buccaneers head to the Windy City after a Monday Night Football loss against Pittsburgh. Fitzpatrick will still get the nod after over Jameis Winston who is now off his suspension. They’re 2-1 after three weeks under Fitzmagic. Chicago lost their opening game to the Packers but has rattled off two straight wins, including a 16-14 win at Arizona last week. The Bears opened at -2 but have been pushed to -3 across the board. Betting action, regarding percentage has been split between these two teams.
I think starting Fitzpatrick over Winston is the right move, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is still who he was before his hot start this year. A mistake-prone, journeyman, quarterback. And, he and the Buccaneers are coming off a short week and facing a tough defense on the road. I am not a fan of Trubisky, and I do believe he is holding back the Bears’ offense, but Matt Nagy still has an excellent scheme that will be able to put up against a horrific Tampa Bay defense. I like the Bears at -3 and even think this one has value if the number moves higher.
Cleveland Browns +2.5 Vs. Oakland Raiders -2.5 Total: 45
The Browns are riding high after their first win in three seasons on Thursday Night Football against the Jets. Baker Mayfield now has the starter job as they look to build on last week with a visit to the Black Hole. The Raiders are off to a 0-3 start under Jon Gruden’s tenure. These odds were at -3/+3 for much of the week but have moved to -2.5/+2.5 as we head into the weekend. However, some sportsbooks may still have +3 available. Betting action has favored Oakland so far, by not by much.
This is a heck of a mismatch. The Browns have extra rest and though they are going across the country – they’re a far better team than the Raiders. At nearly every level of offense and defense, they’re better equipped. This is particularly true on defense where their pass rush and secondary should easily be able to hold down Derek Carr and perhaps force him into mistakes. Cleveland’s offense got a significant upgrade with Mayfield, but I am not even sure they needed him to beat Oakland. +3 is undoubtedly available at some sportsbooks online. It also may come back into play as we get closer to Sunday.
New Orleans Saints -3.5 Vs. New York Giants +3.5 Total: 50.5
The Saints head to New York to take on the Giants after winning a thriller in overtime against Atlanta last week. They’re now 2-1 on the season. The Giants have had a rougher time as they sit at 1-2 after losing their first two games but bouncing back at Houston in Week 3 and getting a victory.
The spread on this one has not moved much since opening at -3.5 in favor of the Saints. An overwhelming number of bets are coming in on New Orleans.
I like the Giants in this spot, quite a bit. They’re an underrated team offensively, with the only weak link being Eli Manning. They have difference makers in Beckham and Barkley, and their defense is underrated. They have only allowed over 20 points in three games. However, the main point here is the spot for New Orleans. This is traditionally a spot where they have a letdown. Not only did they have to win in overtime in a game that was fast-paced and high scoring, but they’re traveling across the country and will now be playing outdoors. I love the Giants getting more than a field goal.