2018 NFL Preseason Free Expert’s Betting Picks – Week 3
With the dress rehearsal for most teams coming last week and the starters only playing a series or so, we’ll see a bit more from the first team offenses and defenses this week. There were three games last night, but most of the league plays tonight and tomorrow, with one game for Monday Night Football. We’ll break down a few of our favorite picks tonight in the preseason below. Check back for the next few weeks for more preseason plays as we head into the regular season and don’t forget to read out NFL Betting Guide.
Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns -3 Total: 41 Points
A look at betting trends and percentages have the public on Buffalo in this one. The Browns did open at -3.5, and that is still where they stand at some shops, but most have heavy vigorish on the -3, rather than moving the line to -3.5. I do think the Browns coaching staff is poor. Specifically, Hue Jackson and Greg Williams. Todd Haley is one of the better coordinators in the league. However, their talent trumps that, at least, against a team like the Bills.
Buffalo has one of the worst rosters in the league. Josh Allen looked decent last week, against Panthers backups, but his performance wasn’t anything special. He will see the most playing time in this one. I don’t have much faith in Nathan Peterman, Josh Allen, or AJ McCarron, even against backup defenses. The Browns continue to be underrated regarding talent, with an excellent offensive line and a strong pass rush. I’ll take Cleveland’s first and second units over the Bills in this one, as Taylor and Mayfield should have no issues moving the ball and Cleveland’s defense will do a decent job against the Bills’ offense.
Kansas City at Atlanta Falcons +1 Total: 39.5 Points
This line has moved drastically from Atlanta at -3 to the Chiefs now at -1. Much of this reason for this move is that Kansas City has stated they are playing their starters for the entire first half. Andy Reid wants to get Patrick Mahomes more playing time with the first-team offense. That makes sense as he’s coming into this season as the starter from day one.
It will remain to be seen if Dan Quinn matches him with playing time. There isn’t a true need for a veteran team like the Falcons to push things, especially on offense. I think we may see this one go even closer to KC as we get closer to game time. Ideally, we wanted to jump on the Chiefs before the line move, but if the closing line ends up being Kansas City -3, we still have made a great bet at +1.
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints -3.5 Total: 41.5
The Cardinals and Saints are both healthier coming into this game, but that may not mean much of an uptick in playing time for the starters. We’re not sure if we’ll see Drew Brees in this one and Sam Bradford won’t likely play more than a few series, as he’s a veteran and has a long injury history.
With Brees not playing much (or at all) and the Cardinals offensive line one of their weakest points – I don’t see this one getting out of hand, especially with the stable of quarterbacks that each team is carrying. There isn’t a lot of talent past the first string, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one as the lowest scoring contest of the evening.