Best Bets: Super Bowl Edition – Proposition Wagers
After discussing some of my favorite off the wall propositions for Super Bowl LI, we will move onto some more traditional proposition bets. All our props come from BetOnline.ag (Full Review), but be sure to line shop for the best prices on each the markets listed below.
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Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman’s Receiving Yards
Total Receiving Yards by Devonta Freeman
- Over 33.5 Receiving Yards -130
- Under 33.5 Receiving Yards +100
Total Receiving Yards by Tevin Coleman
- Over 28.5 Receiving Yards -130
- Under 28.5 Receiving Yards +100
The over on reception yards for Falcons running backs is my favorite proposition bet for Sunday’s game. The (truthful) narrative surrounding Bill Belichick’s game plans is that he looks to “take away” the opposing offenses best weapon or best means of moving the ball.
Some have speculated that Bill may try to do this by stopping the Falcons run game, which also happens to be the area that New England’s defense struggles the most. Others say he may try to contain Julio Jones and Falcons deep passing game.
Either plan bodes well for Freeman and Coleman’s passing game upside. New England’s linebackers are not good in coverage, and they will be tasked with covering Atlanta’s running backs every down.
Both backs have been extremely productive in the passing game as of late. Although the defenses they’ve faced were much better than New England’s, this is a spot where the Falcons may decide to funnel offense to their running backs, even in the passing game.
If Bill decides to stack the run, they should get plenty of work in the passing game. You could make an argument for betting them to both go over their total number of yards, but I like Freeman over 33.5 a bit more than Coleman over 28.5. Freeman gets more touches per game and is just as involved in the passing game as Coleman.
This is one to shop around for, BetOnline is currently juiced on the over and can sharper on props than other sportsbooks.
Bet: Over 33.5 and Over 28.5
Chris Hogan Total Receptions 4.5
- Over 4.5 -115
- Under 4.5 -115
Chris Hogan was last week’s breakout star against Pittsburgh, where he roasted the Steelers secondary to the tune of 9 receptions on 12 targets with 180 yards and two touchdowns. That game was the best of his career and easily his best on the Patriots. However, let’s examine his target totals over the past several games.
Hogan has topped seven targets just once this season, and if we discount the Pittsburgh game, he’s received 15 targets over the previous four games. Again, discounting the game against Pittsburgh, he’s top 30 yards just once. He had two games with four receptions and two games with just a single reception.
Belichick game plans from week-to-week and more than any other team, the Patriots have different heroes every week. Sometimes it’s Edelman, other days it’s LeGarrette Blount or Dion Lewis.
I think it’s unlikely that Hogan sees more than five targets in this game, despite a solid matchup against a weak Falcons defense. Even if he sees five targets, it’s not likely he catches all of them. He always has a chance to break a huge play for a touchdown, which is why I’m not as interested in his yardage prop at under 57.5 as much as the under 4.5 reception wager.
Bet: Under 4.5
Danny Amendola Receiving Yards
- Over 17.5 -120
- Under 17.5 -110
Amendola has been a valuable part of this team for years now, but he fought injuries late in the season and ending up missing the last four games of the regular season. However, he did get back into action Houston and played against the Steelers last week.
Amendola only saw four targets over that span and made two catches for 12 yards, both of which came against Pittsburgh. However, the Patriots are still trying to get him involved on offense, considering he also got a rush which also went for 15 yards.
His snaps rates were low coming off an injury, but still numbered at 30% and 28% over the past two games. It’s possible that he’s more involved in the game plan this time around (after another week of rest). Let’s remember, he has a lot of experience in this offense, more so than Mitchell or Hogan and could be more involved than usual this week.
Like Hogan, the big play is always possible, even with a limited number of targets. He could easily eclipse this yardage total in one play.
Pick: Over 17.5