Cejudo Vs. Dillashaw Betting Odds & Picks | UFC Fight Night 143
The first UFC event of the year—UFC Fight Night 143: Henry Cejudo Vs. TJ Dillashaw is here and as a fan and bettor I couldn’t be more excited about it. We’re starting the year with a title fight in the flyweight division, where TJ could join the selected group of “champ-champs”. Certainly, this will be a night where the history of the sport is written in front of our eyes.
In one corner we have Henry Cejudo (13-2-0), former Olympic gold medalist in freestyle wrestling and the current flyweight division champion after defeating, in my opinion, one of the greatest mixed martial artist of all times, Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson, in UFC 227 by decision after two years of losing against “Mighty Mouse” via TKO in the first-round.
On the other side, TJ Dillashaw (16-3-0) the current bantamweight champion moving down from his weight class to fight Cejudo. He entered the UFC after The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisping vs. Team Miller and as of January 2019, he is No. 5 in the official UFC pound-for-pound rankings. There’s no doubt that TJ’s goal this Saturday is to become the fourth UFC fighter to dominate two divisions the same time, joining Amanda Nunes, Daniel Cormier, and Conor McGregor as the “champ-champs”.
Cejudo Vs. Dillashaw Fight Odds
TJ Dillashaw is the firm favorite to take this one home at -212. Cejudo, is the underdog with +175 odds to win the fight as of this writing. However, with a no-vig breakeven percentage of 37% on Cejudo’s chance of winning – I’m not a fan of taking him in this one. However, there are two interesting MMA props that worth a shot in this fight.
TJ DILLASHAW BY KO, TKO, OR SUBMISSION +170
This is the most accurate prediction you’ll see everywhere about this fight and there’s a good reason why. Half of TJ’s wins so far in his career came by KO or TKO. He’s a committed, vicious, and accurate striker, he’ll make the opponent go where he wants it to go in the exchange and once the window is open the punching, kicking, kneeing, Thai clinching storm begins and when it stops, that’s where the fight ends, with his opponent down in the canvas. Dillashaw comes off a victory over Cody “No Love” Garbrandt by KO and against Cejudo, TJ will have a three-inch reach advantage, which is no minor detail when we’re talking about a top-level fighter like Dillashaw.
We need to consider here the fact that TJ comes down to this division. Cutting weight is always a complicated task for any fighter, and there’s really no way to know how good or bad he will be after coming down to this weight class. Also, it is his first time in the flyweight a division where it is extremely hard KO someone, as they’re all agile and fast compared to heavier divisions. If TJ manages his weight cut as the incredible athlete he is and his speed, timing, and accuracy are on point there’s a high probability that this is how the fight will end in the first 3 rounds.
HENRY CEJUDO BY DECISION OR TECHNICAL DECISION +275
Cejudo is an incredible wrestler. However, let’s not make this the classic Wrestler Vs. Striker analysis, that was valid in the ’90s but not 100% accurate anymore. Both of these guys are world-class martial artists and what makes a difference at the end is how well they mix their skills and the strategies they prepared with their teams.
This being said, if we take UFC 227 as a reference. Cejudo constantly cutted distance with Johnson. He wasn’t focused on striking and took the fight to the ground as much as it was possible. That’s why TJ called him “a boring fighter”. Cejudo had a hard time keeping Johnson down but in the last two rounds his ground and pound was extremely effective and he was able to lock Johnson on the ground despite his amazing anti-wrestler defense.
Dillashaw has a solid wrestling background and even won a scholarship in college. Sure, is not as impressive as being an Olympic gold medalist, but his wrestling background is still strong. The issue is what cutting weight does to a fighter’s body and the fact that TJ has never fought in this division before. Flyweights are extremely fast and hard to knock out, and Cejudo, in particular, is a big flyweight that might overpower a visitor in the division as TJ.
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