Cormier vs. Lewis Betting Odds Preview & Picks | UFC 230

UFC 230 Cormier vs Lewis heavyweight championship fight

UFC 230 is around the corner and this will be one of those nights loaded with action for fans and bettors. This might be Daniel Cormier’s (DC) last fight before he faces Brock Lesnar, of course, as long as he defeats Derrick Lewis. Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis got this opportunity after defeating Alexander Volkov at the end of the third round in UFC 229.

Volkov dominated the fight and the judges probably were considering giving him the victory by unanimous decision. However, the Black Beast had other plans and knocked him out. DC is coming to the fight after winning the title by knocking out Stipe Miocic. We will see what happens on fight night, for now, we’re certain it will be an entertaining fight in the heavyweight division and a Clash of The Titans.

Cormier Vs. Lewis Fight Odds

Cormier opened as the firm favorite in this one at -625. Lewis, as the dog, had odds around +430 to win the fight when the odds initially opened. As the market has matured, Cormier has increased his advantage with the oddsmakers. He is now -675 to win the fight and as high as -750 at some sportsbooks. The best price to be found on Derrick Lewis is +520 as of this writing.   

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Cormier Vs. Lewis – Who Will Win?

The favorite to take this victory home is DC, but let’s analyze why. Cormier is not your average heavyweight. He has a well-rounded game but don’t forget he’s probably one of the most prolific wrestlers in the division. This is not a coincidence, DC comes from a solid college and Olympic wrestling background.

Cormier is not the kind of guy that will try to win in the first round, he’s technically superior to Lewis in almost every aspect of the game. He’s fast, has amazing cardio, solid kickboxing and Olympic level wrestling. His ability to cut distance faster than any other heavyweight in the division and his movement in 10-second intervals are definitely a massive plus. On the other side, we have Derrick Lewis, known for his amazing comebacks. He rallied in UFC 229 when he was losing against Volkov and took the fight home in the last minute. Lewis is not the most technical fighter in the division, in fact, when compared to DC his technique is not even close to Cormier’s level.

What is Derrick Lewis advantage?

Well, he won 9 of his last 10 fights, MMA is not 100% about technique but effectiveness. In most cases, technical fighters are effective but effective fighters are not always technical. The Black Beast is also the fighter with most knockout victories in the history of the UFC’s heavyweight division. He’s not only the knockout king but also the second most effective fighter with ground strikes landed in the division.

Lewis is fully aware that he’s not the most technical fighter in the world, however, what he lacks on cardio and technique, he has in natural strength, mental toughness and last minute knockout punches. Though he is vulnerable to takedowns but is usually quick to get back on his feet. We don’t know how this will go against DC but Lewis has dominated strong wrestlers before, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t try to do it with DC.

Cormier vs. Lewis UFC 230

This being said and odds aside. Cormier has many tools to test Lewis limits. Most likely DC will try to extend the fight to burn Lewis’ stamina and from there, either manhandle him with wrestling and ground & pound to go for the knockout when the window is open. Lewis, on the other hand, is expected to play a defensive role in the fight and wait for that opportunity to land his “super punch.” With these two fighting, it is hard to imagine a scenario where the fight ends with a winner by unanimous decision. However, UFC is always full of unexpected outcomes.

Undoubtedly, this fight will likely go to Cormier, as he’s a massive favorite, but we’re not picking the winner based on which fighter is most likely to win. We analyzed betting odds and the chances of an upset. At -675, I don’t think there is a lot of value in wagering on Cormier, especially after the odds have moved from -625 at open. There is at least a 20% chance that Derrick Lewis wins this fight. At +500 or so, I am happy to take a shot on him.

Gustavo Santiago

Gustavo Santiago - MMA Analyst & Writer

Gustavo is a dedicated mixed martial artist, UFC die-hard fan, and bettor. He’s responsible for our MMA fight breakdowns and UFC picks here at SBS while he’s taking a break from his Muay Thai, Boxing, Wrestling or Bjj training. He is the SBS’ king of Mixed Martial Arts.

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