Florida St Vs. Gonzaga Predictions | March Madness Expert Picks | Sweet 16
4 Florida State Seminoles Vs. 1 Gonzaga March Madness Expert Picks
The Gonzaga Bulldogs have had a comfortable ride in the 2019 March Madness tournament, but now it’s about to get serious when they take on the dangerous Florida State Seminoles in the Sweet Sixteen. Good teams usually hammer weak opposition without much problem, and that’s what Gonzaga has done. We can say the Bulldogs haven’t been pushed to the limit like Duke or even Virginia. The Zags had a smooth ride in the first two games of the tournament.
Yet, what’s coming might be the biggest challenge they have faced since losing to North Carolina back in December. The Florida St Seminoles are no joke. Virginia suffered them in the ACC tournament and Duke had to sweat a lot to beat them in the final. This Sweet 16 matchup is must watch TV. The March Madness betting line opened with the Zags as 7-point favorites at Mybookie. The line dropped down to 6.0, and then it moved to 7 and has settled to 7.5-points in the last few hours. 62% of the betting public is taking the Seminoles with the points.
Gonzaga is listed +450 to win the entire tournament. Only Duke and Virginia have better odds at this point. That’s an implied probability of winning of 18% which has a lot of value for a team that’s one of the top seeds in the bracket. Florida State remains a long shot at +2600 with a probability of winning of 4%. The thing that you need to recognize with the Seminoles is they don’t care about how the public or the betting sites see them. This team is here to wreck some March Madness brackets and eliminating Gonzaga will do just that.
Last season the Seminoles got the better of Gonzaga, by beating them 75-60. It was not even close as the Noles were so much better. Florida State looks like an overall bad matchup for the Bulldogs, mostly because of their interior game. Gonzaga is used to dominating teams with the play of their big men, but Florida State has a solid rotation in Mfiondu Kabengele, Christ Koumadje, and Phil Cofer. Those three names can neutralize whatever the Zags bring to the table. Kabengele is coming off destroying internet sensation Ja Morant and the Murray State Racers in the second round. He put a 22-point show coming off the bench. No team in the 2019 March Madness second round scored more than the 90 points Florida State scored against Murray State.
I’m taking the Seminoles with the points in this one. The betting sites are only giving Florida State a 27% implied probability to win and advance. But this team has shown a different face over the last two weeks. This is game will be decided with a late basket and taking the points has most of the value. Betting the OVER is also a great bet in this one. Both teams can score in bunches. What’s the play? Seminoles +7.5
Spread: Gonzaga -7.5
Money line: Florida State +270 vs. Gonzaga -340
Game Total: 147
Date: Thursday, March 28, 2019
Game time: 6:09 PM ET
Venue: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA
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