Free NFL AFC Championship Expert Picks – Jaguars vs Patriots Prediction
Jaguars head to New England to take on the Super Bowl 2017 Champions for a spot in the Super Bowl 2018. There is plenty to talk about in this game from a betting perspective, including a certain Hall-of-Fame-bound QB showing up on the injury report. My NFL pick is below and odds can be found at Sportsbetting – Don’t Miss 75% Up To $1000 Bonus. If you have thought about buying sports betting picks you should read our Pay For Picks article and take advantage of our free Jaguars vs Patriots prediction picks instead of paying for them.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots
We did predict that the Jaguars would at least cover against the Steelers, it turns out they won the game in a 45-42 shootout. Big Ben’s 450 plus yards and five touchdowns didn’t do the job, as Bortles and Leonard Fournette had their way with Pittsburgh’s defense. The Jaguars also came up big on defense, notching several turnovers and a defensive touchdown.
Running back, Leonard Fournette, showed up on the injury report this week with an ankle injury but is fully expected to play. The status of safety, Tashaun Gipson, is worth following, however. He was injured in the win against the Steelers and has not practiced. He will likely have to practice on Friday to play in Sunday’s game, even on a limited basis.
New England took care of the visiting Titans in the Divisional Round, routing Tennessee by a score of 35-14. The game was never in doubt and other than the opening drive touchdown, the Titans didn’t score any more points until the final seconds of the game.
The biggest storyline this week has been centered around Brady’s throwing hand. Brady hurt his throwing hand in practice after a teammate ran into him. Xrays haven’t shown a break, but he has not yet returned to practice. He also canceled his media appearance and reporters have bombarded other Patriots with questions about his status. The betting line has also moved in favor of Jaguars. Brady is still likely to play as Patriots have not signed another quarterback, but he isn’t in full health. A return to practice on Friday would improve his status.
Betting Action – Odds On The Patriots
New England opened as a -9 favorite, but the line has come down to -7 or -7.5 at most sportsbooks. Currently, Sportbetting has the Patriots at -7.5 (-102) and the Jaguars at +7.5 (-118). Tickets wise, the Patriots are getting most of the bets, but the line moves suggest the smart money has come in on the Jaguars. The total has also come down slightly since opening at 46 points to 45.6 at most spots. Betting action has been around even on the both over and under.
Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 (-102) at New England Patriots -7.5 (-118)
I did manage to get this bet in at +9 on the Jaguars and the move to -7.5 and -7 at some sportsbooks came shortly after the news that Brady was not practicing on Thursday. Still, even at +7.5, Jacksonville seems like the right play.
The Patriots always have a large national backing from bettors due to their dominance over the past decade. The Jaguars continue to be underrated by the market. Brady’s injury news is the icing on the cake for betting on Jacksonville. I was already interested in them, but his health uncertainty, plus the tough matchup has me loving the away team.