Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs – NFL Week 5 Sunday Night Picks

Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs Expert Picks

The Kansas City Chiefs win on Sunday felt like a championship victory. The Chiefs won one of those games where they didn’t play their best football but found a way to get the W.

Their next task, hosting the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football, should be just as tricky.

Colts vs. Chiefs Odds – NFL Season Week 5

Colts vs. Chiefs
+12 (-110) Spread -12 (-110)
 +420 Moneyline -600
 Over 56 (-110) Total  Under 56 (-110)
Bet On Colts vs. Chiefs NFL Game At

The Chiefs -12 at looks like a large spread for two teams that were in the playoffs last season. Of course, the sudden retirement of QB Andrew Luck hit the Colts to a point where they are no longer Super Bowl contenders.

The betting line opened with the Chiefs -11. The line moved up one point in the last few hours, but it should come back down to 11.5. Currently, 53% of the betting the public is backing the Colts with the points.

The game total opened at 57 points and now is at 56.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

The worst mistake the Colts can do in this game is trying to go toe-to-toe with Kansas City. Playing the Chiefs score-to-score is a dangerous move.

This makes RB Marlon Mack the most crucial player in the game plan for the Colts. Indianapolis doesn’t have a conservative offense, but they might benefit from pounding the rock, establishing a slow pace and taking care of the football.

Last week Mack had his most quiet game during the season, earning only 39 yards on 11 carries. Indianapolis fell behind early by 14 points against the Oakland Raiders, and after it, they had to throw the ball more times than they wanted.

The Colts’ Best Game

The Colts’ best game this season was during the 30-24 OT loss against the LA Chargers in week 1. Despite the loss, Indianapolis looked like a scrappy team that was not going down easily.

That day Mack ran for 174 yards and one touchdown in 25 touches. That’s the way Indy stays in this game against Kansas City.
Mack didn’t practice on Wednesday due to an ankle injury, so stay tuned about the news of his health.

WR TY Hilton (quad) and WR Parris Campbell (abdomen) also missed the Wednesday practice and are listed questionable to face Kansas City.

What’s The Kansas City Chiefs’ Edge Over The Colts?

Kansas City remains unbeaten, although they didn’t play their best game last week in Detroit. It’s a sign of a championship team when you can’t play your best and somehow find a way to win.

QB Patrick Mahomes didn’t throw a touchdown pass last weekend. Mahomes had thrown at least one TD in the past 21 games. He will be eager to make up for those missed on Sunday vs. the Lions.

The Colts defense allowed 377 total yards from the Raiders last Sunday. Oakland recorded 189 passing and 188 rushing yards, in a well-balanced attack.

Kansas City will have the chance to pick their path to a victory. We know Mahomes can sling it, but also LeSean McCoy is getting a second wind on his career with the Chiefs.

Indianapolis is badly missing safety Malik Hooker. He’s a ballhawk with great instincts to make plays. Not having Hooker in the second represents a massive liability for the Colts, especially against an offense like Kansas City’s.

The Chiefs haven’t mentioned if WR Tyreek Hill will be available for Sunday’s contest. Hill returned to the practice field this week after dealing with a collarbone injury suffered in week one.

Colts vs. Chiefs Sunday Night Football Pick

The line jumped one point after the Colts lost to the Raiders on Sunday. It’s an overreaction. Indy had a bad start to the game, and it ended up being too big to overcome.

Even if Kansas City’s offense is the best in the business, covering 12-points is a tough ask in the NFL. Indianapolis is not Miami, Washington or the NY Jets; the Colts can play and win games in this league. Double-digit point spreads are more suited to the truly terrible teams in the NFL. Indy doesn’t belong there.

Also, Kansas City has the second-worst rushing defense in football. It’s not the worst only because the Miami Dolphins are still trying to convince us they are a professional team. The Colts will run a lot to stay within striking distance. Take the Colts +12.

Colts vs. Chiefs Game Information

  • Date: Sunday, October 6, 2019
  • Game Time: 8:20 PM ET
  • Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
  • TV: NBC

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Alonzo Solano

Alonzo Solano - Sports Analyst & Picks Writer

Alonzo is a Sports Analyst who has covered College Football and NFL odds for SafestBettingSites but don’t be surprised if you read him on any other sport. He’s a gaming analyst looking for winners every weekend.

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