Kamaru Usman Vs. Colby Covington UFC 245 Betting Picks And Odds

Usman Vs. Covington UFC 245 Expert Betting Picks And Odds

UFC 245 is taking over T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday. We’ll have the opportunity to watch not one, but three title fights.

It’s going to be an incredible night for the sport and the fans. Kamaru “The Nigerian Nightmare” Usman (-170) faces Colby “Chaos” Covington (+140) in his first title defense since he defeated Tyron Woodly.

We’ve seen crazy trash-talking from Colby as usual. To the point, I believe he’s inside Kamaru’s head. The hype for this matchup is incredible from both fans and fighters. Let’s see where’s the value is to keep growing our bankrolls on Saturday.

What The Odds Say About Usman Vs. Covington UFC 245 Matchup

Fighter Moneyline
Kamaru Usman -170
Colby Covington +140
Bet On Usman vs. Covington At MyBookie.ag

The line opened with Usman as a moderate favorite at -185. At the time of this writing, MyBookie has Usman at – 170 still as the favorite. So far, we haven’t seen the odds change much, with some sites still around the opening number and others closer to -200. The best price we saw at online sportsbooks for Usman was -165.

Kamaru Usman is an incredible champion. But, he might also be getting a lot of action from UFC casuals who hate Covington influencing the line a little.

Early odds had Colby Covington at +160 in most sportsbooks. Right now, we find him at +140 as the dog. Fair enough considering how dominant Usman was in his last bout. And of course, the hate Colby raises in fans.

Usman’s Edge Over Colby Covington

Usman is going to fight Colby after dominating an uninspired Tyron Woodley. I’m not taking anything away from the champ. It was an outstanding display of athleticism.

He outstriked and suffocated him with his wrestling against the cage for five rounds. But let’s face it, that wasn’t the best Woodley we’ve seen in UFC.

Usman’s wrestling is the sharpest weapon of his skillset. The explosiveness and upper body control to take opponents to the ground is art in motion. I’m not a big fan of his ground game.

Kamaru’s ground game relies heavily on his physical power to get the tap. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing. However, long term, it might not be the best approach when fighting with a cardio freak.

Usman is not a submission artist. He has only one submission win in his career so far, and he wasn’t a black belt back then. But I still wouldn’t categorize him as a submission hunter.

What About Usmans’ Striking?

His striking isn’t as sharp as his wrestling but is certainly better than his submission game. He manages the distance well and takes full advantage of his reach while switching levels and throwing the right volume of strikes in the mix.

He might not be a submission artist, but Colby shouldn’t underestimate his KO power either. Kamaru can send you to another dimension with one strike as he did to Sérgio Moraes.

However, most of his KO victories are TKOs. Meaning that he does have power, but it’s not common to see him putting people to sleep.

Colby’s Edge Over Kamaru Usman

I know most UFC fans hate Colby’s personality. I’m not a big fan of all that clowning he does outside the Octagon, either. However, I need to acknowledge how great of a fighter he is.

You can’t watch what he did against Robbie Lawler and don’t recognize that the guy with the MAGA hat and the cheap suit can fight.

Colby Covington has incredible cardio. His wrestling style isn’t the most powerful. But his ability to keep up the pressure all over the place the whole fight at the pace he does it is admirable. He just won’t let people catch their breath during the bout.

His striking isn’t a joke either. The keywords here are speed and volume. Colby will send a hurricane of strikes to set up his takedowns, and that makes him dangerous.

He has only two KO victories in his career, but that doesn’t mean Usman can forget about it. It’s complicated to handle an opponent that is fast with his hands, and one who is continuously shooting for the takedown the whole fight. He also doesn’t seem to slow down the pace ever.

It will be interesting to see how the fight will be when this cardio freak faces a champ with 100% takedown defense like Kamaru Usman.

UFC 245 Usman Vs. Covington Betting Prediction

I don’t think Usman is going to manhandle Colby the way he did with Woodley. Also, I don’t believe Usman is going to knock out Colby with one punch.

Usman has incredible cardio, but we saw him for five rounds against a passive Woodley and not at the pace Colby brings to the Octagon.

Usman is coming back from working on several injuries, including a damaged knee. His last fight was his title bout with Woodley. I’m not saying he is totally out of shape, but we need to consider the impact it might have on his performance.

Colby Aparently Won The Mental War

Colby is inside his head now, and I think this might unconsciously make Usman overcommit to the KO. I think the first two rounds he dominates, but the rest of the fight Colby’s pace might start affecting him.

With the constant wrestling pressure and the striking output, Colby brings to the game. I’m happy to take the dog on this one. An exciting prop to possibly consider wagering later in the week is Covington by decision.

Whether we like it or not, Colby Covington is UFC title material. His craziness in public is just an act. This guy is a fantastic fighter capable of demolishing top-level opponents. I’ll the dog, Colby Covington at +140.

MMA Pick: Covington +140

Bet On Usman Vs. Covington At MyBookie Sportsbook

mybookie sportsbook

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Gustavo Santiago

Gustavo Santiago - MMA Analyst & Writer

Gustavo is a dedicated mixed martial artist, UFC die-hard fan, and bettor. He’s responsible for our MMA fight breakdowns and UFC picks here at SBS while he’s taking a break from his Muay Thai, Boxing, Wrestling or Bjj training. He is the SBS’ king of Mixed Martial Arts.

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