Khabib Nurmagomedov Vs. Tony Ferguson UFC 249 Betting Odds & Prediction

UFC 249 Khabib vs. Tony Betting Pick

*Important Update: Khabib Nurmagomedov’s participation in UFC 249 is unlikely. Khabib is locked in Russia due to the travel bans in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.*

The Undefeated lightweight champion Khabib “The Eagle” Nurmagomedov and Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson will face each other in one of the most anticipated matchups in UFC history.

This April 18th at the Barclays Center Arena, we hope to finally see the dream fight we’ve been waiting for at UFC 249. 

Khabib and Tony are the best lightweight fighters in the UFC. The clash between these titans has already been booked four times. Whoever wins this bout will be the absolute king of the division.

However, injuries from both sides prevented us from seeing this fight becoming a reality. It’s happening again, and it’s an excellent opportunity to bet on the UFC as well.

What The Odds Say About Nurmagomedov Vs. Ferguson

Nurmagomedov Vs. Ferguson Odds To Win
Tony Ferguson +215 MyBookie Sportsbook
Khabib Nurmagomedov -275

At the time of this writing, we find Khabib Nurmagomedov listed at -275 as the favorite

While this is a matchup of two great fighters, Khabib is still a moderate favorite. He stands at -275 to win, which is still an excellent price for a fighter of his talent.

On the other side, we have “El Cucuy” at +215 to win. If anyone in that division has a chance to end Khabib’s winning streak, it is Tony Ferguson. 

Khabib is so dominant and aggressive with his opponents that I can see why the oddsmaker has Ferguson as the dog at +215.

Khabib Nurmagomedov’s Edge Over Ferguson

Khabib Nurmagomedov has been competing in MMA for more than ten years and holds an unbelievable record of 28 wins and 0 losses.

The Eagle is the best grappler and ground and pounder we’ve ever seen in the history of the division. He showed us this over and over again with his dominant performances.

Khabib makes world-class opponents like Edson Barboza, Michael Johnson, Rafael Dos Anjos, and recently Conor Mcgregor look like amateurs. He just mauls people with his constant pressure.

Last time we saw Khabib fight was in UFC 242. In that bout, he was dominant against Dustin Poirier.

Dustin Poirier Almost Submits Khabib?

But we saw a deep guillotine from Dustin that for a second made us think that Khabib Nurmagomedov a human and can be submitted.

Khabib’s plan is simple in structure and flawless in execution. What’s scary about this guy is that everybody knows his game plan, yet no one seems to be able to stop him.

For his fight with Tony, I don’t think we’ll see many changes. He might use his strikes as a distraction to shoot for the takedown.

Once he gets to the ground, he’s going to pin Ferguson to the canvas. Try to control the legs and hit him like a piñata until the round ends or a submission reveals itself.

He’s not going to outstrike Tony Ferguson which is an extraordinary striker. The Russian has been working hard on his striking and it’s getting better. 

In the fight with Conor, Khabib showed us that he only needs one blow to send his opponent to the ground.

His head coach, Javier Mendez has certainly been a significant influence on his stand up game improvements. However, it’s far from being his sharpest weapon.

It is unlikely that Khabib wants to fight standing up throughout the rounds. But there is no doubt that we will see a couple of devastating punches during the fight.

Tony Ferguson’s Edge Over Khabib

Tony Ferguson is the pinnacle of what being a mixed martial artist truly means. He is so good at every single aspect of the game that it looks almost unnatural. 

I feel confident saying he has more weapons available than anyone else in the game.

You see him doing calisthenics, breakdance workouts, hitting a Wing-Chun wooden dummy, and overall moving like no one else in the business does. 

Ferguson is on a 12-win streak and has a record of 25 wins and three losses. The last time we saw him in the Octagon was against Donald “cowboy” Cerrone. 

The fight got stopped by the doctor at the end of the second round. But Ferguson had a fantastic performance that night.

On his feet, his movements are almost unpredictable, and attacks come in all directions. His ground game is no joke, either. He is UFC’s d’arce choke master. 

Tony’s fights tend to be bloodbaths. His elbows and unparalleled ability to put pressure on his opponents often end with him cutting open the face of other fighters.

Ferguson has outstanding cardio, so I’m sure he will maintain top-level performance during all rounds. 

Tony Ferguson is easily the most versatile fighter Nurmagomedov has ever faced. His advantage will be his “survival” mentality as well as the ability to improvise and adapt on the go if the fight goes to the distance.

Also, we know he’s been preparing all sorts of traps for Khabib with the 10th Planet Crew. That could be a massive advantage because of Khabib’s ground focused style.

Nurmagomedov Vs. Tony Ferguson UFC 249 Betting Prediction

Ferguson is dangerous for Khabib. It has a better striking game. However, the winner of this fight is going to be decided on the ground.

Khabib was caught in a deep guillotine against Poirier. Dustin got tired, and Khabib managed to get out. However, we must keep in mind that Ferguson is a more skilled ground fighter than Dustin, and he won several fights by submission.

Also, Ferguson’s footwork will make a difference. Tony can easily cut the distance from the side and constantly plays with his opponent’s reflexes. His punches and patterns are hard to read.

This is the first time that an opponent facing Khabib has a real chance to end his winning streak. At +215, I’m happy to take a shot with the contender – I’m a massive Khabib fan, but when we are getting more than 2/1 on our money, there is a lot of value here with Ferguson.

Our Nurmagomedov Vs. Ferguson UFC 249 Pick:

Bet Ferguson +215 At MyBookie

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Gustavo Santiago

Gustavo Santiago - MMA Analyst & Writer

Gustavo is a dedicated mixed martial artist, UFC die-hard fan, and bettor. He’s responsible for our MMA fight breakdowns and UFC picks here at SBS while he’s taking a break from his Muay Thai, Boxing, Wrestling or Bjj training. He is the SBS’ king of Mixed Martial Arts.

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