League of Legends European Championship Week 8 Betting Preview

LoL LEC 2020 Betting Preview

After a one week postponement, the League of Legends European Championship (LEC) will continue.

With the threat of the COVID-19 virus threatening the health of the studio audience, staff, and players, the teams will be playing remotely from their facilities on a tournament server for the rest of the season.

This should not negatively affect the games being played even if it’s a bit of a bummer for the overall audience. Hey, at least we still get some professional League of Legends!

With only six playoff spots for the ten teams and only two weeks remaining, the stakes are high for some and low for others but I also think that with an extra week to prepare, some of these underdogs might be ready to play spoiler.

Let’s take a look at four games that have betting spots I like this Friday!

MAD Lions Vs. SK Gaming

Mad Lions vs. SK Gaming
-475 Moneyline +305
-7.5 (-115) Spread +7.5 (-115)
O 23.5 (-115) Total U 23.5 (-115)
Bet On Mad Lions vs. SK Gaming on LEC Week 8 At Bovada.lv

The young MAD Lions roster continues to steadily improve and seeks to solidify their chances at a playoff seeding with a win over the 2-12 SK Gaming. With only six playoff spots for the ten teams in the LEC, MAD Lions 8-6 record is only good for 6th place currently.

They trail Rogue and Misfits Gaming, who are tied for fourth by a game, and only lead by one game over the 7-7 Excel eSports. This game is critically important to MAD Lions and by far the easiest matchup in the four final games.

SK Gaming will be using prospect league standout Ventair in place of Sacre in the top lane for these matches. With their playoff hopes eliminated, teams will often try out prospects like this.

SK Gaming Is The Worst Team?

Frequently it results in a boost of energy and will to win even if it doesn’t end up being the result. SK Gaming is, in my opinion, the worst team in the league, so this is likely to be a positive but unfruitful change of pace.

With time to make adjustments to some of their early game struggles, MAD Lions should be well-prepared for this matchup.

MAD Lions have an average margin of victory of 8.125 kills and are 5-2 as favorites of -200 or longer.

Our MAD Lions Vs. SK Gaming Pick:

MAD Lions -7.5 (-115) At Bovada.lv

FC Schalke 04 Vs. Misfits Gaming

FC Schalke 04 vs. Misfits Gaming
+225 Moneyline -315
+6.5 (-115) Spread -6.5 (-115)
O 23.5 (-115) Total U 23.5 (-115)
Bet On FC Schalke 04 vs. Misfits Gaming on LEC Week 8 At Bovada.lv

Schalke have looked much better in recent weeks with Lurox and Innaxe fully incorporated into the lineup. They’ve played close games against some good teams and their mid and late-game decision making has been excellent.

While they haven’t been winning these games, Schalke looks much improved from where they were earlier in the season and I have them firmly ahead of the other bottom of the table teams Vitality and SK Gaming.

Misfits have started to come back down earth as teams figure out how to shut down the potent mid and jungle duo of rookie Razork and savvy veteran Febiven.

Misfits Performance

Misfits have performed significantly better than most anticipated going into the season but appear to be settling into the middle of the table spot. Their only losses have been to the top teams, Origen once, and Fnatic and Rogue twice.

Misfits are 4-1 as favorites and have an average margin of victory of 10.22 kills but Schalke has an average margin of defeat of 6.54 kills including a loss where they had a 3 kill lead and two losses with an even score in kills.

I think there’s a chance we see Schalke win outright but I’m sticking to the kill spread.

Our FC Schalke 04 Vs. Misfits Gaming Pick:

FC Schalke 04 +6.5 (-115) At Bovada.lv

Excel eSports Vs. Fnatic

Excel eSports vs. Fnatic
+355 Moneyline -575
+8.5 (-115) Spread -8.5 (-115)
O 24.5 (-115) Total U 24.5 (-115)
Bet On Excel eSports vs. Fnatic on LEC Week 8 At Bovada.lv

Excel has a monumental challenge to overcome if they’re going to make the playoffs. They currently sit in 7th place trailing a playoff spot by one game but have to face the three best teams in Europe in their four final games including the top two, Fnatic and G2, back-to-back this weekend.

Fnatic simply needs a single win to lock up a playoff spot but will likely be competing for a top seed as they trail first-place G2 eSports by only a game.

The last meeting between these teams was a back and forth slugfest that resulted in a 14-14 score in a 29:40 Fnatic victory. At nearly a kill per minute, it was one of the highest combined kills per minute games in Europe this season.

Excel is also coached by one of the best in the business, YoungBuck, who happens to be Fnatic’s previous coach. Combine this with the extra week to prepare and a “must-win” situation for Excel and I think we have a recipe for an upset.

Our Excel eSports Vs. Fnatic Pick:

G2 eSports Vs. Rogue

G2 eSports vs. Rogue
-500 Moneyline +310
-7.5 (-115) Spread +7.5 (-115)
O 26.5 (-115) Total U 26.5 (-115)
Bet On G2 eSports vs. Rogue on LEC Week 8 At Bovada.lv

After a bit of a slow and unexciting start to a team that many anticipated being a contender, Rogue has quietly been rounding into form.

Over the last three weeks, they’ve gone 4-2 with their only losses coming to Origen and Fnatic. In their most recent game, they completely destroyed the MAD Lions 20-2 in just over 28 minutes.

A win for Rogue would massively boost their odds of locking up a playoff spot but G2 is a difficult challenge. The first meeting between these two was a 20-15 kill G2 victory in 38:45 featuring Wunder’s top lane Soraka.

G2 Has A Lot Of Respect For Rogue

G2 has gone on record in interviews as having a lot of respect for Rogue which makes me believe they won’t be messing around in this game like they tend to do once they assemble a winning streak.

While G2 average a whopping 29.4 kills+deaths per game I’m going with the under 28.5 total kills.

The #1 seed is at risk in this matchup, the teams have a lot of respect for each other. I’d expect this to be a slightly more reserved, close game similar to what we saw from Fnatic and G2 in week seven.

Notably, this kill spread was +/-10.5 kills heading into week eight before the postponement so there’s a lot less value on that market now.

Our G2 eSports Vs. Rogue Pick:

Under 28.5 (-115) Kills At Bovada.lv

LoL LEC Week 8 Betting Preview Final Thoughts

With the playoff picture constantly shifting from game to game I’m going to stick to selections from Friday’s games but I have a few thoughts for those looking at Saturday’s slate on their own.

Typically, the game after a team is eliminated tends to be either extremely low motivation and low action (kills) or particularly crazy and high action if a team loosens up and just wants to show something or have fun after elimination.

Keep an eye on these types of situations. A team that’s playing with nothing to lose can be dangerous against a nervous team battling for a playoff spot but we won’t know all the details on who is eliminated until Friday’s results.

It can be a great opportunity to bet Saturday’s games while watching Friday’s games with various outcomes in mind.

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