Los Angeles Wildcats Vs. New York Guardians Betting Odds & Picks | XFL Week 4
Week 4 of the XFL is upon us! The opening game of the weekend will have two one-win teams facing off as the LA Wildcats travel east to battle the NY Guardians at MetLife Stadium.
Weather shouldn’t play a significant impact on the game with light winds, partly cloudy skies, no projected precipitation, and temperatures in the mid-30’s Fahrenheit (~2.7 Celsius).
The Wildcats are 7-point road favorites. The total opened at 40 but has dipped to 39.5 or 39 in a lot of places due to injury concerns.
What The Odds Say About The Wildcats At Guardians Match
|O 39.5 (-110)||Total||U 39.5 (-110)|
|Bet On Wildcats Vs. Guardians XFL Week 4 Game At BetOnline|
Guardians starting quarterback Matt McGloin did not participate in practice with a rib injury sustained during Sunday’s game against the BattleHawks.
Also not participating were depth LB Jawuan Johnson, starting RB Darius Victor, and RG Garrett Brumfield.
The Wildcats have already ruled out star wide receiver Nelson Spruce with a knee injury. He has 20 receptions for 256 yards and two touchdowns through three weeks.
Other notable players that did not participate in practice include running backs Larry Rose and Martez Carter, starting TE Brandon Barnes, and starting DE Latarius Brady.
New York Guardians Defense Vs. LA Wildcats Offense
While the Guardians’ defense hasn’t been nearly as bad as their offense, they haven’t exactly been stellar either.
Through three games, they’ve allowed a league-worst 350.3 yards per game to opposing offenses.
Even in their week one game where they held the Vipers to just three points, Tampa put up 394 yards of offense and were it not for three turnovers, likely would have allowed a lot more points.
If you consider that the Guardians have been trailing for the majority of their season since that week one win, the fact that they’ve allowed a league-worst 138 yards per game on the ground is rather shocking. They know what is coming and still can’t stop it.
The Guardians’ defense might not be terrible, but at best, they’re mediocre from what we’ve seen so far.
The Wildcats’ Aerial Attack
The Wildcats aerial attack has been excellent this season, posting 222.7 yards per game passing, including 278 last week against the Defenders, the XFL’s top statistical pass defense.
With stud receiver, Nelson Spruce in this one, the question becomes just how effective this passing offense can be without him?
Spruce accounts for just short of 39% of the Wildcats’ entire passing yardage this season, and he has 20 of his teams 58 total receptions.
Just for a comparison, that’s just a bit higher than Michael Thomas’s 38.4% share of the New Orleans Saints passing offense yardage in his record-setting 156 reception season this year in the NFL.
The Wildcats’ other receivers have performed well, but it’s tough to fill that type of void in an offense, especially when the running game has been the worst in the league through three games.
No edge for either side.
LA Wildcats Defense Vs. New York Guardians Offense
Last week against the Defenders, the Wildcats defense came up with two interceptions and a blocked punt that they recovered inside the DC 5 yard line all in the first half to jump out to a 27-3 halftime lead.
The defense did play well getting a lot of pressure up front, but after reviewing the film this was much like Week 1 against the Vipers who had a number of unforced errors.
On the first interception, Cardale Jones underthrew an attempt to float a pass while rolling to his right into two defenders when he had another receiver open across the middle of the field.
The second was a throw forced into coverage when four yards to the left was a wide-open receiver as well as another that had beaten coverage along the sideline.
The point is that both interceptions were more quarterback error than defensive prowess. The Wildcats defense has allowed only 0.6 fewer yards per game than the league-worst Guardians that we mentioned above.
The Guardians’ Offense Has Fallen Short
The Guardians’ offense has been the worst in the league without question. At 223.3 yards per game, they are far and away the worst unit in the league on either side of the ball.
They’re 46.4 yards per game worse than the second-worst Seattle Dragons.
They benched starting quarterback Matt McGloin for performance reasons after putting up zero points in week two. Neither backup has performed particularly well either.
The running game hasn’t been much better. It ranks second to last in the league with 75.7 yards per game.
This number may be skewed because the Guardians have been trailing for most of their three games. But even in Week 1, where the Vipers spotted them an early lead, the Guardians only ran for a miserable 44 yards.
Slight edge to the Wildcats.
Our Wildcats Vs. Guardians Prediction & Betting Pick
Through three weeks, the under has hit in 8 out of 12 games, favorites are 7-5 against the spread, home teams are 7-5 against the spread, and home favorites are 4-2 against the spread.
We must keep these in mind as the sportsbooks have likely adjusted as we saw with the totals last week being significantly lower.
Here’s why I’m on both the Guardians and the UNDER:
First, is the injuries. With so many potential offensive weapons missing for both teams, especially Nelson Spruce for the Wildcats, I’m not sure we’ll see a high flying offensive game from either side, even with two fairly poor defenses.
Second, while the Guardians offense has been terrible, they’ve also faced the three best defenses in the league in their first three games and there is a good chance they’re better than they’ve appeared so far.
Third, with extremely low totals, the underdog catching any moderate amount of points is going to have more value than in games with a higher total.
New York also happens to be one of the home underdogs that have won outright this season, albeit in that weird week one game against the Vipers.
I’m going with the Guardians catching seven points, but I think that we might be able to get a 7.5 later in the week once more public money comes in on the Wildcats. I also expect that this total might creep up a bit too, but I’m comfortable taking the under 39.5.
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