MLB Betting 4-05-17 – Free Picks

Baseball is in full swing as we have a large slate of games today that begin in the afternoon. We will still be posting NBA picks semi-regularly but will focus more on basketball when the NBA Playoffs begin.

As always, all our odds will be quoted from BetOnline (Full Review) and are accurate at the time of posting. However, be sure to line shop for the best price before placing your bet. When betting baseball – make sure you’re betting dime lines. They will save you a lot of money over the long haul and are available at BetOnline.

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Pittsburgh Pirates – J Taillon +170 at Boston Red Sox – C Sale (L) -180 Total: 8 Runs

After dropping a game to the Red Sox on Opening Day, both the Bucs and the Sox are back in action tonight at Fenway as No. 2 overall draft pick, in 2010, Jameson Taillon looks to build off a promising rookie season. He will have a tough test against veteran southpaw, Chris Sale, who was Boston’s biggest free agent acquisition.

The Red Sox opened as a -201 favorite. Betting action has been nearly nonexistent on Pittsburgh, with over 95 percent of bets coming in on Boston so far. However, the line has moved the other direction with most sportsbooks with the Red Sox at -180.

Predicting a slump or a rougher path this season for Taillon makes some sense, but that’s not the career path for every young starter. He has the pedigree and stuff to dominate in at this level. It’s a question of if he’s ready to or not. At +170, I like that gamble.

Let’s also remember that Sale wasn’t quite as dominant last season. His velocity was down overall and while Fenway is excellent for keeping left-handed batters from knocking the ball out of the yard – it’s still a hitter’s park, overall.

Furthermore, Pittsburgh should go with a dominant right-handed lineup tonight. Aside from Gregory Polanco, most of the top offensive options for the Pirates are righties. I like their chances of pulling an upset tonight.

Pick: Pirates +170

Seattle Mariners – J Paxton (L) +106 at Houston Astros – C Morton -116 Total: 7.5 Runs

Paxton finally got a chance in the rotation last year and pitched well. In 121 innings for the Mariners, he had a 3.79 ERA and 117 strikeouts, but his advanced statistics showed an even better pitcher. Charlie Morton takes the hill for the first time in about a year after suffering several injuries over the past season or two. He signed a two-year, $14 deal this offseason after a year in Philadelphia.

This game has seen some major line movement on the side and total. Originally, Paxton and the Mariners opened as a -113 favorite. However, after heavy action on the Astros, the line has moved to -116 for Houston. The total has also dropped significantly since opening at 9 runs. It’s now at 7.5 across the board.

The significant drop from the high total in this game makes perfect sense to me. Although Minute Maid is a bandbox, both pitchers are better than advertised.

Paxton could be coming into his own with a late-career breakout. Morton, though 32 now, has also made a lot of adjustments over the past two years. Before going down with an injury, he was throwing a sinker over 94 mph, while mixing in a 90-mph cutter and some junk pitches, which have increased his strikeout potential.

Even with the line movement, I still love the under at 7.5 runs.

Pick: Under 7.5 Runs

Joseph Falchetti

Joe is the author of the blog, most picks, and the majority of excellent content on SafestBettingSites. He's been mentioned on Forbes.com as a gaming analyst and his articles have been linked by larger publications, such as the New York Times.

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