MLB Betting 4-06-17 – Free Picks

Unfortunately, we had a 0-2 day yesterday with the picks, losing the Astros and Mariners under 7.5. The game went to extras as a 2-2 tie and looked to be over after the Mariners scored in the top of the 13th, but Springer hit a three-run homer to push the total to 8 runs. The Pirates and Red Sox also went to extras tied 0-0, but Boston won the game with another walk-off, 3-run homer by Sandy Leon.

Let’s go back after it today!

As always, all our odds will be quoted from BetOnline (Full Review) and are accurate at the time of posting. However, be sure to line shop for the best price before placing your bet. When betting baseball – make sure you’re betting dime lines. They will save you a lot of money over the long haul and are available at BetOnline.

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Chicago Cubs – J Lackey -129 at St. Louis Cardinals – L Lynn +119 Total: 7.5 Runs

After being rained out yesterday, the two NL Central rivals will try it again on Thursday afternoon as veteran, John Lackey, takes on Lance Lynn. Lackey doesn’t get quite the attention of the Chicago’s top arms, such as Arrieta or Lester, but he’s been just about as dominant. Lynn has been a reliable pitcher in his career, but is coming off Tommy Jon surgery and is making his first start since October 4, 2015.

Betting action has been heavy on the defending World Series Champions. Chicago is getting close to 95 percent of all wagers. The odds opened with them as a -125 favorite, but they’re moving at just about every book online.

I don’t love taking huge public sides, like this one, but Lackey is so enticing at this price. Couple that with Lynn coming off surgery facing a potent Cubs offense and I am loving Chicago in this one. Remember, Lackey stats from last year aren’t much different from those of Arrieta’s. You’re getting a dominant pitcher at a reduced price.

Pick: Cubs -129

Toronto Blue Jays – M Stroman -122 at Tampa Bay Rays – B Snell (L) +112 Total: 8 Runs

Stroman had a strong World Baseball Classic, helping Team USA get their first crown and earning tournament MVP honors. He now takes the mound for the Blue Jays as they take on the Rays at Tropicana Field. Tampa counters with Blake Snell, a sophomore southpaw, who hopes to build off a strong half season in 2016.

Toronto has gotten nearly all of the bets so far, but the odds have dropped from Jays -130 at open to about -122. The total has moved since opening at 7.5 runs to 8 runs.

The move on the total isn’t a positive for the wager I like, but there’s a good chance the total moves back to 7.5 as we get closer to first pitch. Both pitchers have plenty of talent, but I think Snell is being underrated.

He’s a top prospect that is just a few steps away from becoming a dominant pitcher. He was awful in Spring Training, but those statistics have little bearing on regular season performance. Neither of these offenses projects to be elite this season and both pitchers should be able to put up a lot of zeros tonight in the box score.

Pick: Under 8 Runs

Joseph Falchetti

Joseph Falchetti - Editor-in-Chief / Sports Writer & Analyst

Joe is the author of the blog, most picks, and the majority of excellent content on SafestBettingSites. He's been mentioned on as a gaming analyst and his articles have been linked by larger publications, such as the New York Times.

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