MLB Betting 4-07-17 – Free Picks

We had a great day yesterday, going 2-0 with Lackey picking up the win for the Cubbies and the Blue Jays and Rays staying under eight runs. We’ve got our first full Friday slate this season, with every team in baseball in action.

As always, all our odds will be quoted from BetOnline (Full Review) and are accurate at the time of posting. However, be sure to line shop for the best price before placing your bet. When betting baseball – make sure you’re betting dime lines. They will save you a lot of money over the long haul and are available at BetOnline.

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San Francisco Giants – M Cain -110 at San Diego Padres – L Perdomo +100 Total: 8 runs

The Giants head to San Diego after starting the season with a paltry 1-4 mark. Matt Cain takes the 5th starter role in SF after a long career for the franchise, but a rocky past few years. The Padres counter with Perdomo, who was their best starter in the second half of last year. He led the National League in groundball rate at 59 percent.

San Francisco opened as a -130 favorite. Betting action has been even on both sides so far. The odds have shifted since opening in San Diego’s favor. Current odds at most sportsbooks are Giants -110 and Padres +100.

I think this an excellent buy-low spot for the Padres after they looked awful in their season-opening series with the Dodgers. Matt Cain hasn’t been himself for several years now. His last strong season was in 2012. Since then, he’s been a mixture of hurt or just flat out bad.

Perdomo isn’t anything special, but he did end the 2016 season on a high note. He’s also just 23 years old and is facing a Giants’ offense that isn’t anything special and in the most hitter friendly ballpark in the league.

Cain is an inferior talent at this point and is as hittable as any pitcher in the league. I like the Padres to get to him early and grab a victory tonight.

Pick: Padres +100

Miami Marlins – W Chen (L) +108 at New York Mets – Z Wheeler -118  Total: 7.5 Runs

Chen easily had his worst season last year as he was mostly ineffective and limited to just 22 starts with a forearm sprain. His velocity returned this spring and previously was one of the most productive starters in the NL. Zach Wheeler won the fifth starter job for the Mets. The former top prospect has battled injuries the past two seasons, including Tommy John surgery.

We’ve seen quite the line move in this one after the Mets originally opened as a -145 favorite.

Wheeler looked shaky in the spring regarding control but was still hitting 97 mph on the gun. He’s an elite talent that may be on inning limits for the time being. However, the Mets’ strong bullpen doesn’t have me worried that they can put together a strong pitching performance tonight.

I’m going to need to see more from Chen before we can trust him as a reliable starter. The Mets offense isn’t anything to fear, but several players have had some success against him. Most importantly, Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets power slugger,  has hit .312 off him in 17 plate appearances.

Pick: Mets -118

Joseph Falchetti

Joseph Falchetti - Editor-in-Chief / Sports Writer & Analyst

Joe is the author of the blog, most picks, and the majority of excellent content on SafestBettingSites. He's been mentioned on as a gaming analyst and his articles have been linked by larger publications, such as the New York Times.

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