MLB Betting 4-11-17 – Free Picks

We’re back after a bit of a weekend hiatus. Last time we gave out picks was April 7, where we ended up going 1-1 after winning with the Padres and losing with the Mets. Let’s hope for a 2-0 day on what is 12-game slate across baseball.

As always, all our odds will be quoted from BetOnline (Full Review) and are accurate at the time of posting. However, be sure to line shop for the best price before placing your bet. When betting baseball – make sure you’re betting dime lines. They will save you a lot of money over the long haul and are available at BetOnline.

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Arizona Diamondbacks – R Ray (L) +115 at San Francisco Giants – J Samardzija -125 Total: 7.5 Runs

The D-Backs take on the Cardinals again tonight after losing 4-1 yesterday afternoon. Southpaw, Robbie Ray, will take the hill for Arizona. He’s coming off a no-decision last week against the Rays, after giving up three runs in 5 2/3 innings.

Giants’ veteran right-hander, Jeff Samardzija, looks to have another solid campaign after striking out nine batters in 5 1/3 innings in his season debut last Thursday. However, he did give up three long balls, and six earned runs against these same Diamondbacks in his first outing.

The odds opened with the Giants as a -140 favorite. About 70 percent of bets so far have come in on SF. However, the odds have moved the other way with the Giants now at around -125 and the Diamondbacks at +115.

Samardzija is firmly out of his prime now and has a few advanced metrics that suggest he may be headed for severe regression. He’s become increasingly more homer prone. Arizona got to him last week and have a tough lineup. I think there’s a high chance they get to him once again tonight.

On the other side, Ray is just 25 years old and has boasted a rising strikeout rate in his first two years in the majors. His advanced metrics show that he has been unlucky so far. The Giants also don’t have a potent offense, and several key position players are left-handed – giving Ray a good chance to neutralize them.

Pick: Diamondbacks +115

San Diego Padres – J Weaver +163 at Colorado Rockies – A Senzatela -173 Total: 12

Jered Weaver is a former All-Star, but the righty is in the twilight of his career as he moved from the Angels to the Padres this offseason. He was shaky in his first start against the Dodgers last week, giving up four earned runs and two homers in just five innings.

Senzatela made the most of his Major League debut at Milwaukee last week. Although he didn’t get the win, he allowed just two hits in 5 innings, while walking 3 and striking out 6.

Bettors like Colorado in this one. Over 80 percent of wagers have come in on the Rockies so far. However, the line has only moved slightly the other after Colorado opened as a -176 favorite. Currently, most sportsbooks the odds around that number or slightly below.

The total is easily the highest on the slate at 12 runs. I don’t know if there is much value taking the over in this one and I am certainly interested in the under tonight. I do think Weaver is over the hill and Senzatela may have some talent as a young starter, but +160 or so is enticing in an environment where anything can happen.

The Rockies roster hasn’t drastically changed since last season, where they won just 75 games. I think they’re a better team than the Padres, but the odds in this one feel undeserved. As a pure value play – I like San Diego tonight.

Pick: Padres +163

Joseph Falchetti

Joe is the author of the blog, most picks, and the majority of excellent content on SafestBettingSites. He's been mentioned on Forbes.com as a gaming analyst and his articles have been linked by larger publications, such as the New York Times.

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