MLB Betting – 6-28-17

chase field

We took a loss yesterday with the Pirates falling in extra innings to the Tampa Bay. There’s a lot more action today on the diamond as we get closer to the All-Star Break. Check back here for picks all season long.

As always, all our odds will be quoted from Bovada (Full Review) and are accurate at the time of posting. However, be sure to line shop for the best price before placing your bet.

St. Louis Cardinals – A. Wainwright -116 at Arizona Diamondbacks – Z. Godley -136 Total: 9.5 runs

The Cardinals are coming off a 6-5 loss last night as they head into the second game of a three-game series at Arizona. They have not played their best baseball as of late and are now trailing the Brewers in the NL Central by five games. The Diamondbacks are off to a great start. They have a 50-28 record, but still trail the Dodgers in the NL West by 1.5 games.

It’s been a tough year for Adam Wainwright so far. The former ace is certainly not scaring anyone these days. However, he is coming off one of his better outings of the year last Friday at Pittsburgh. The Cardinals didn’t get the win, but he allowed a single earned run over seven innings.

Godley has come out of the bullpen and produced for the Diamondbacks. Since taking Shelby Miller’s spot in the rotation, the righty has gone 3-1 with a 2.53 ERA. He has not managed to give up more than three earned runs in a start this season and has eight strikeouts in both of his last two starts.

Betting Action

The public has been all over the Diamondbacks so far. They opened at -136 at most sportsbooks and that is where the odds stand at most sites as of this writing. The total opened at 9.5 runs and has seen split action on both sides.

Prediction

I think there’s some merit to taking the Cardinals in this one, especially since the odds haven’t moved much, despite the heavy action on the Diamondbacks. However, the play that stands out to me in this one is the under. The under is juiced at a few sportsbooks and 9.5 runs seems like a bit too many for two pitchers that have been excellent lately.

Chase Field is a bandbox, but the Cardinals have struggled to score runs lately, regardless of the ball park. Godley has excellent and Wainwright has pitched far better as of late. He has attributed his improvement to a change in mechanics, which is something I am buying into. The market seems to think so as well.

Pick: Under 9.5 at Bovada

 

Joseph Falchetti

Joe is the author of the blog, most picks, and the majority of excellent content on SafestBettingSites. He's been mentioned on Forbes.com as a gaming analyst and his articles have been linked by larger publications, such as the New York Times.

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