MLB Betting 7-03-17 – Free Picks
We are back at it again today with more free picks for baseball. Tomorrow is the 4th of July, so happy Independence Day to all you Americans out there.
Pittsburgh Pirates – I. Nova +110 at Philadelphia Phillies A. Nola -120 Total: 8.5 Runs
The Pirates travel to see their cross-state rivals for a four-game series against the Phillies starting on Monday night. Philadelphia has long been out of the playoff race while Pittsburgh is holding out hope they can rebound in the second half.
Nova is coming off the shortest start of his stellar season but has still put together a fantastic 3.08 ERA and a sterling 2.63 ERA at PNC Park through 8 home outings. He’s easily been Pittsburgh’s best starter.
Nola has all the talent in the world but has been up and down this season. However, over his last three starts, he’s gone 3-2 with a 3.24 ERA. Still, his season mark is at 4.13. He’s a former first-round pick with ace upside.
Odds have not changed much since opening at Pirates +106 and Phillies -116. Most of the betting action has come on Philadelphia. The total opened at 8.5 runs with -120 juiced on the under but is now juiced on the over at most sportsbooks.
This is a great spot for Nova to work as the “stopper” for a Pirates team that desperately needs a victory. After three-straight road losses, they’re back in the friendly confines of PNC Park. This is Nova’s wheelhouse, and he’s facing a weak offense in a park where he’s been stellar.
I’m a bit surprised at the heavy beating action on Philly. They’re not exactly a good team. Nola has been a lot better lately, but he’s far from the dominant pitcher he was for parts of last season. Pitch counts and control are still an issue for him, and the Phillies bullpen has been a rough spot all season.