MLB Betting 7-05-17 – Free Picks

Hope everyone had a great 4th of July! We’re back with more picks today on a slate that looks to be full for the most part for Major League Baseball.

As always, all our odds will be quoted from BetOnline (Full Review) and are accurate at the time of posting. However, be sure to line shop for the best price before placing your bet.

Pittsburgh Pirates – G. Cole -148 at Philadelphia Phillies – +138 B. Lively Total: 9 runs

The Phillies fell out of the playoff race a while ago. The Pirates are on their way there. It’s not likely going to be a heavily watched game, but this one caught my eye from a betting perspective.

Pittsburgh will go with Gerrit Cole, who has had an up and down year so far. He’s yet to be able to regain his ace status from the 2015 season. Last start, he gave up seven runs on ten hits in 5 1/3 innings against the Giants.

The rookie righthander, Ben Lively, will take the mound for the Phillies. Lively has been above-average so far. He walked four batters in two innings against the Mets in his last start but managed to pitch out of the jams. He allowed just two runs in 6 1/3 innings.

Betting Action

Bettors have gone heavy on the Pirates so far, with over 90 percent of wagers coming on the away team. However, the odds haven’t changed much, with Pittsburgh moving just slightly off their -150 opener. The total has 50/50 betting action and is at nine runs at most sportsbooks.

Prediction

I like the under in this contest. The ballpark isn’t ideal, but nine runs seems like far too many with these pitchers on the mound. Cole has put together some gems this season and then some terrible outings, like last time out. The Phillies have some tough lefties, but their lineup shouldn’t be too difficult for a player of Cole’s skill. He’s still throwing hard, hitting 98 on the gun in later innings.

The same logic can be used for Lively. The Pirates lineup looks a lot better on paper to start the season, but has been slumping as of late and has dealt with several injuries and suspensions. He shouldn’t have a problem holding down their offense.

Pick: Under 9 Runs at BetOnline.ag

Kansas City Royals – J. Vargas (L) -124 at Seattle Mariners – A. Miranda -134 Total: 8.5 Runs

The Royals and the Mariners are in a similar situation to the Pirates and Phillies. Seattle still has an outside shot at a Wild Card spot if they manage to put together a second half run.

Jason Vargas has been outstanding for the Royals this season and is a trade candidate as we approach the deadline. He got his 12th win in his last start, which leads the Majors. He’s allowed more than three runs in just one of his starts. He has a sterling 2.22 ERA.

The Mariners rotation has been in shambles this season with Miranda the only starter to make each of his starts in the first half the year. He is coming off an excellent seven scoreless innings in his outing against the Angels. On the season, the southpaw has a 3.82 ERA.

Betting Action

The Royals odds haven’t changed much despite big action on Vargas and Kansas City. They opened at +124 and are now between +126 and +130. The total opened at 8.5 runs and is juiced on the over at most sportsbooks.

Prediction

I love Vargas in this spot. The Mariners haven’t performed well against lefties for some years now, and he’s one of the craftiest in the game. His first half was not a fluke, and he’s pitching in a great ballpark for pitchers in a matchup where he could dominate.

Pick: Royals +124 at BetOnline.ag

 

Joseph Falchetti

Joe is the author of the blog, most picks, and the majority of excellent content on SafestBettingSites. He's been mentioned on Forbes.com as a gaming analyst and his articles have been linked by larger publications, such as the New York Times.

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