MLB Betting 7-05-17 – Free Picks
Hope everyone had a great 4th of July! We’re back with more picks today on a slate that looks to be full for the most part for Major League Baseball.
Pittsburgh Pirates – G. Cole -148 at Philadelphia Phillies – +138 B. Lively Total: 9 runs
Pittsburgh will go with Gerrit Cole, who has had an up and down year so far. He’s yet to be able to regain his ace status from the 2015 season. Last start, he gave up seven runs on ten hits in 5 1/3 innings against the Giants.
The rookie righthander, Ben Lively, will take the mound for the Phillies. Lively has been above-average so far. He walked four batters in two innings against the Mets in his last start but managed to pitch out of the jams. He allowed just two runs in 6 1/3 innings.
Bettors have gone heavy on the Pirates so far, with over 90 percent of wagers coming on the away team. However, the odds haven’t changed much, with Pittsburgh moving just slightly off their -150 opener. The total has 50/50 betting action and is at nine runs at most sportsbooks.
I like the under in this contest. The ballpark isn’t ideal, but nine runs seems like far too many with these pitchers on the mound. Cole has put together some gems this season and then some terrible outings, like last time out. The Phillies have some tough lefties, but their lineup shouldn’t be too difficult for a player of Cole’s skill. He’s still throwing hard, hitting 98 on the gun in later innings.
The same logic can be used for Lively. The Pirates lineup looks a lot better on paper to start the season, but has been slumping as of late and has dealt with several injuries and suspensions. He shouldn’t have a problem holding down their offense.
Kansas City Royals – J. Vargas (L) -124 at Seattle Mariners – A. Miranda -134 Total: 8.5 Runs
The Royals and the Mariners are in a similar situation to the Pirates and Phillies. Seattle still has an outside shot at a Wild Card spot if they manage to put together a second half run.
Jason Vargas has been outstanding for the Royals this season and is a trade candidate as we approach the deadline. He got his 12th win in his last start, which leads the Majors. He’s allowed more than three runs in just one of his starts. He has a sterling 2.22 ERA.
The Mariners rotation has been in shambles this season with Miranda the only starter to make each of his starts in the first half the year. He is coming off an excellent seven scoreless innings in his outing against the Angels. On the season, the southpaw has a 3.82 ERA.
The Royals odds haven’t changed much despite big action on Vargas and Kansas City. They opened at +124 and are now between +126 and +130. The total opened at 8.5 runs and is juiced on the over at most sportsbooks.
I love Vargas in this spot. The Mariners haven’t performed well against lefties for some years now, and he’s one of the craftiest in the game. His first half was not a fluke, and he’s pitching in a great ballpark for pitchers in a matchup where he could dominate.