MLB Betting 7-06-17 – Free Picks
We ended up going 2-0 yesterday with the picks as the Pirates and Phillies stayed under and the Royals won in a slugfest with the Mariners.
Atlanta Braves- M. Foltynewicz +152 at Washington Nationals – G. Gonzalez -162 Total: 9 Runs
After dropping two games against the Astros in an interleague series, the Braves will head to Washington to take on their division rivals in a four-game series that starts Thursday night. The Nats are coming off a win against the Mets on Tuesday and are 9.5 games ahead of the Atlanta in the NL East standings.
Foltynewicz is coming off one of his best outings of the season. He pitched eight innings at Oakland, allowing a solo shot as his only blemish. He got the victory and managed to record eight strikeouts. He has struggled with consistency this season, but still has a 3.83 ERA.
Gio Gonzalez has been the Nationals best starter this year behind Max Scherzer. He didn’t make the All-Star team, but easily could have with his tremendous numbers. He has the third best ERA in the National league at 2.77.
Bettors have taken to Gonzalez, but the line has moved quite heavily off the -191 opener. At most sportsbooks, the Nats are around -160. The total opened at 9 runs. It has seen more action on the over, but the total hasn’t moved.
Foltynewicz is coming along in his development perfectly. He has the stuff to be an ace, but is a pitcher who often has some blowout outings, but some true gems. He has not pitched well against the Nationals this year, but has been in a groove as of late.
I like their chances in this one, especially against pitcher like Gonzalez who has pitched extremely well this year, but if you look at advanced statistics he is due for regression. He has an ERA of 2.77 but an xFIP of 4.30.
The Braves offense is more than capable of getting to Gio, especially with Freddie Freeman back from injury. I love Atlanta tonight.