MLB Betting 7-20-17 – Free Picks
We had a rough loss last night with the Dodgers giving Rodon a beating early on and the Chi Sox’s offense not producing. I especially felt terrible about the pick as the odds shifted heavily in L.A.’s favorite before first pitch later in the day. Today’s slate is shorter, but there is some value to be found.
Milwaukee Brewers – J. Nelson +118 at Pittsburgh Pirates – J. Taillon -128 Total: 8 Runs
The Brewers come into this afternoon’s game amid a three-game slide against Pittsburgh. Today is the final game of the four-game series where they can hope to go 3-1, at best. The Pirates were eight games back of first place when the Brewers came to town on Monday, but now they have cut that lead to just four games.
If anyone can break a slide, it’s Milwaukee starter, Jimmy Nelson. Nelson has been simply unreal for the past two months. He slipped up in his last start, but before the All-Star break, he went 6-2 with a 2.39 ERA in 12 starts.
Pittsburgh’s rookie has also been great. After recovering from testicular cancer, Taillon has gotten back to his early season dominance. He gave up four runs against the Cardinals in his last start, but still, has a sterling 3.06 ERA through 67 innings on the year.
The odds have moved slightly in the Pirates’ favor since opening -128 at lots of sportsbooks. Pittsburgh is getting about 75 percent of bets. The total opened at 8.5 runs but has dropped eight runs. Most bettors are favoring the under.
Taillon and Pittsburgh are rightfully favored here, despite Nelson’s recent dominance. The Brewers are simply not that good of a baseball team. They’ve come this far, but the shoe is starting to fall off.
They’ve looked outmatched all series when it comes to facing Pirates’ pitchers. Taillon is incredibly talented, but he’s also an excellent control pitcher. He won’t give this lineup many free passes, and outfielder Ryan Braun may not suit up this afternoon either.
San Diego Padres – J. Chacin +186 at San Francisco Giants – M. Bumgarner -201 (L) Total: 7 Runs
The Padres will head to AT&T Park to take on the Giants in a four-game series. Both San Diego and San Francisco are far removed from the playoff race at this point. However, they will certainly still be playing hard for pride against a divisional opponent.
The Padres will throw right-hander, Jhoulys Chacin. The veteran has had an up and down career, much like his 2017 season. He’s sporting a 4.33 ERA on the season but has been at 2.68 since the beginning of June. He pitched well last time out against the Giants in San Diego but needed 58 pitches to get through the third inning.
Madison Bumgarner is making his second start after coming off the disabled list last week. This will be his first start at AT&T Park since April 13. He pitched well at Petco Park on July 15, giving up three runs in 7 innings with five strikeouts.
There hasn’t been much movement off the opening number, but bettors are wagering heavily on Bumgarner and the Giants at -201. The total opened at 7 runs and has seen 50/50 action so far, but is juiced on the over at most sportsbooks.
I like the Giants a bit in this game, but -201 is just too steep. Instead, the over in this game makes a lot more sense. The forecast is calling for wind and though Chacin has pitched well lately – he’s easily hittable, even for a weak offense like the Giants. He’s been a below average pitcher his entire career, and his peripheral have not improved.
Bumgarner looked good in his last start, but facing the Padres at Petco is about as cupcake of a matchup one can find. He’ll face the same team in a slightly better hitter’s park. It’s fair to say he still may have some rust to shake off.
This game has a lot more potential for offense than 7 runs offered by the oddsmakers.