MLB Betting 7-24-17 – Free Picks
We’ve had a solid run of late, winning our last play on Friday with the Pirates beating the Rockies in Colorado before losing their next two games. Today isn’t a full slate, but there is still plenty of action across baseball. Let’s get to it!
Kansas City – J. Hammel +126 at Detroit Tigers – J. Verlander -136 Total: 9.5 runs u -130
The Tigers head to Kansas City to take on their central division rivals (well, not the season) in a two-game series. Detroit has already begun to sell off talent, sending outfielder, J.D. Martinez, to the Diamondbacks last week. They’re far out of the division race with a 45-52 record.
Many thought the Royals would be sellers at this point, but they have roared back to become a force in the AL Central after a rough start. They have a 50-47 record and are just 1.5 games back of the Indians.
Kansas City will go with Hammel against Detroit’s Justin Verlander. Hammel has been mostly mediocre, but he did have a decent outing last time out against Detroit which was his last start. He allowed one run on four hits. On the season, he has a 4.81 ERA.
Verlander has been the subject of trade rumors as of late. He’s likely to be dealt before the deadline, and this could be one of his last starts with the Tigers. It’s been a rough year for the former ace. He’s sporting a 4.54 ERA. In his last start against Kansas City, he threw seven innings of two-run ball.
Verlander and the Tigers are getting about 70 percent of wagers so far, but the line has moved in Kansas City’s favor after Detroit opened at -145. It now stands at Royals +126 and Tigers -136 at BetOnline.
Hammel and Kansas City have some value in this matchup. Verlander has been awfully hittable lately, and Hammel has been sharp in his last three starts. I like the Royals a bit more in a stadium that will offer more offense.
Verlander has been even worse than his ERA shows when you look at his advanced metrics. His xFIP is 4.88, and he has the second highest HR/FB rate of his career at 9.9%. Kansas City’s lineup has also seen a power surge this season. I think they get to Verlander early and often, tonight.