MLB Betting 7-25-17 – Free Picks
MLB Betting 7-25-17 – Free PicksThe Royals outlasted the Tigers last night, giving us a 1-0 Monday evening. It’s been a nice run of late. There’s a full slate of baseball on today and many teams fighting for playoff positions as we head into the home stretch.
Atlanta Braves – M. Foltynewicz +138 at Arizona Diamondbacks – T. Walker -148 Total: Total 10 runs o -122
The Braves will face the Diamondbacks in the second game of a four-game series. They took a beating last night, losing 10-2 to the home squad. Arizona won’t likely catch the Dodgers in the NL West, but has an excellent 57-42 record and is almost assured a Wild Card spot. Atlanta is four games under .500 at this point and have bleak postseason hopes.
The Braves will throw right-hander, Mike Foltynewicz. He’s a talented young pitcher but has been inconsistent to start his career. Over the last few starts, he’s been fantastic. He’s 4-0 with a 2.93 ERA in his last five outings.
Tajuan Walker missed his last due to the birth of his child. The injury prone, but excellent pedigree starter has put together a strong year for the D-backs. He rolls into tonight’s contest with a 3.61 ERA on the year.
Arizona opened as a –144 favorite. At most sportsbooks, this has moved the odds to -148 or higher. Betting action has been split between the two sides. The total opened at 9.5 runs and has moved to 10 runs with heavy juice on the over at most sites.
This game should have a lot of runs, but the market has already adjusted to that. Bettors who take the over now will pay a hefty price and lost a half-run from the opening odds. Instead, I prefer Arizona.
Walker is still young and full of promise. It’s been mostly injuries and control issues that have stifled his growth as a starter. Folty has those same flashes of brilliance but is prone to blow up games more so than other starters. Arizona’s offense might be the best in all of baseball right now. I think they get to him early and this one gets out of hand.
Minnesota Twins – J. Berrios +159 at Los Angeles Dodgers – K. Maeda -169 Total: 8.5
The Twins look to rebound after losing last night in Los Angeles. Minnesota is 3.5 games back of the Indians in the AL Central in what has become a competitive race with the Royals. The Dodgers have all but locked up the NL West and lead baseball with a 69-31 record.
Minnesota’s exciting young starter bounced back after a string of bad outings with a solid performance against the Yankees last time out. He allowed just one run over 6 2/3 innings. On the season, he’s sporting a 3.50 ERA with 75 strikeouts.
Kenta Maeda has been in out, and of the rotation for L.A. Some of it has been due to injury, but Maeda when the odd man out when the Dodgers had a fully healthy rotation. After McCarthy’s injury, Maeda is back once again. He’s been excellent in his past two starts, allowing just one run over ten innings.
L.A. opened as –196 favorite. The line has moved drastically away from that number, despite around 70 percent of bets coming in on the Dodgers. The odds now sit at Minnesota +159 and Los Angeles -169.
At this point, bettors are firing blindly on the Los Angeles, and they keep winning and winning. However, I think this is an excellent spot to get behind the Twins. Berrios is a top talent that has as much ace potential as any other young starter in the league. He’s had his growing pains, but also has had plenty of flashes of brilliance.
The same can’t be said for Maeda. After a dominant year in 2016, he’s been much more hittable. The Twins have plenty of power bats that can get to him, and he rarely pitches more than five innings these days. His stuff is not what it was last season, and I think Berrios and Minnesota end up taking this one.