MLB Betting 7-26-17 – Free Picks
We had a rough day yesterday, going 0-2 with the picks as the Twins fell to the Dodgers and the Braves defeated the Diamondbacks. Today is a shorter slate, but there’s still plenty of MLB action. Let’s hope for a bounce back tonight.
Houston Astros – M. Fiers -119 at Philadelphia Phillies – A. Nola +109 Total: 8 Runs
The Astros look for a sweep of Philadelphia after taking two of the first three games of the series. They will face a tougher test in today’s matchup as Aaron Nola takes the mound for the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.
Fiers has been inconsistent throughout his career, something that has followed him around this season, as well. However, the right-handed has started the second half of the season with a bang. He’s gone seven innings in his past two starts, getting two wins, and 1.93 ERA with 20 strikeouts. He’s brought his season ERA down to 3.59 due to his recent run.
Nola is one of Philly’s best assets, and the young starter has rebounded from a terrible start to the year and injury issues to look dominant in the second half. He has an incredible 1.70 ERA over his last six starts. On the year, he’s got a 3.38 ERA with 97 strikeouts.
Houston opened at around -129, but that has moved to -119 or lower at most sportsbooks. The public has been all over the Astros, with about 80 percent of wagers coming on them so far. As of this writing, at BetOnline, the odds are Astros -119 and Phillies +109. The total originally opened at 9 runs and is now at 8 runs across the board.
It’s tough to trust a guy like Fiers, especially when he’s facing an elite young starter, in Nola. Fiers is also due for regression according to advanced metrics. His FIP is 4.92 compared to an ERA of 3.59. He’s been getting somewhat lucky so far. He also still has an above average BB/9 at 3.18.
Philadelphia doesn’t have a strong lineup, but they can still get hot on occasion and will take advantage of a pitcher who is wild. Couple that with Nola being dominant in any park if he is on his game and I love the Phillies tonight.