MLB Betting 8-1-17 – Free Picks

We’re back after a bit of hiatus for more MLB betting picks. We’ve got a full slate on Tuesday after the end of the MLB trade deadline. There were a few big moves, but no big-name hitters got moved at the deadline. The most significant move was the Dodgers acquiring starting pitcher, Yu Darvish, from the Texas Rangers.

As always, all our odds will be quoted from BetOnline (Full Review) and are accurate at the time of posting. However, be sure to line shop for the best price before placing your bet.

Los Angeles Dodgers – K. Maeda -158 at Atlanta Braves – L. Sims +148 Total: 9.5 runs

The Dodgers hold baseball’s best record and further added to their roster by acquiring Darvish and several other pitchers. Maeda may be the odd man out after Darvish joins the rotation, but nothing is set in stone on that front. Atlanta is not a playoff contender but is still a club that is in the realm of a .500 record.

Maeda’s season looks stronger on paper than actual performance. He has a 9-4 record but has pitched much better at home (2.98 ERA) versus a 5.56 ERA on the road. On the season, he has a mediocre 4.09 ERA. He continues to struggle to make it late into games, only pitching past the fifth innings three times in 16 starts.

Lucas Sims will have a tough matchup in his first MLB start. He has a 3.75 ERA through 115.1 innings this year in AAA but has been better in his last four starts, posting a 2.84 ERA mark. He is a legitimate prospect, ranking in Atlanta’s top 20 by most publications.

Betting Action

Odds markets initially installed L.A. at around -205 favorite, but that has come down quite a bit since opening. However, bettors have heavily bet Los Angeles so far, with near 75 percent of all wagers coming in on Maeda. The odds have moved to Dodgers -158 and Braves +148 at BetOnline.

Prediction

The line move here makes a lot of sense. The public is infatuated with betting the Dodgers, and who can blame them? They’re the best team in baseball, and they got even better yesterday. However, Maeda’s inability to pitch deep into games and his poor road performances make him a dangerous guy to back tonight.

The Braves offense has some power bats, and SunTrust Park has proven to be a bit of bandbox this season. Sims has a tough task, but often we see pitchers from the minors dominate early before coming back down to earth, likely due to scouts and lineups getting more familiar with them. It would have been nice to them at +183, but I still think there’s plenty of value with Atlanta tonight.

Pick: Braves +148 at BetOnline

Joseph Falchetti

Joseph Falchetti - Editor-in-Chief / Sports Writer & Analyst

Joe is the author of the blog, most picks, and the majority of excellent content on SafestBettingSites. He's been mentioned on Forbes.com as a gaming analyst and his articles have been linked by larger publications, such as the New York Times.

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