MLB Betting 8-22-17 – Free Picks
We’re back with more MLB action as the season gets closer to the final month of the year. Tonight is a full slate across the league. Check back here for more MLB picks and tons of NFL content and picks as we head into the NFL season.
Los Angeles Dodgers – B. Stewart -105 at Pittsburgh Pirates -105 – J. Taillon Total: 9 Runs
The Dodgers will face the Pirates on Tuesday night in what is the second of a four-game series. They have the best record in baseball and are on pace for more than 100 wins. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is almost out of contention completely after their recent slide.
With Yu Darvish hitting the DL, Brock Stewart will start for the Dodgers on Tuesday night. He has not been good in his two starts with L.A. this year. He has managed to make through just 7 2/3 innings in his two starts. However, he’s looked better in a relief role. On the year, he has a 1.64 ERA and 15 strikeouts.
It’s been an up and down season for Pittsburgh’s Jameson Taillon. The young righthander had a strong first half, but was sidelined with testicular cancer and has faltered after the All-Star break. His last start was against the Cardinals where he allowed four runs in five innings. However, his velocity has improved in recent starts. His 4.68 ERA has been magnified by some poor outings, but he’s been more consistent than those numbers suggest.
The Dodgers and Stewart opened as a -129-favorite last night. However, despite over 70 percent of tickets coming on L.A., the odds have moved in Pittsburgh’s favor. Most sportsbooks have the game at -105 on both sides. The total has held firm at 9 runs.
Pittsburgh’s slide as of late has been awful, but in this matchup, Taillon and the Bucs look like a strong bet. It’s worth noting that advanced stats, such as FIP, show that he should be much better than his ERA indicates. He has 3.43 FIP versus a 4.64 ERA which indicates he is due for positive regression.
Also, if you watched last night’s game, the Dodgers seemed to be pressing. They had many more chances to score, despite still putting up six runs. Taillon is a smart pitcher that can miss some bats and should give them some trouble.
On the other side, Pittsburgh should have some success against an unproven pitcher, like Stewart. Their offense has shown they can hit him, albeit, under a small sample size.