MLB Opening Day Free Picks – April 3

It’s finally here! Monday is one of the best days of the year if you’re a baseball fan. The day is packed with wall-to-wall baseball, beginning at 1 pm EST.

As always, all our odds will be quoted from BetOnline (Full Review) and are accurate at the time of posting. However, be sure to line shop for the best price before placing your bet. When betting baseball – make sure you’re betting dime lines. They will save you a lot of money over the long haul and are available at BetOnline.

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Colorado Rockies – J Gray -112 at Milwaukee Brewers – J Guerra +102 Total: 8.5 Runs

The Rockies begin their season at Miller Park as Jon Gray looks to build on his strong rookie season where he had 185 strikeouts, a franchise record for a rookie. It will be his first opening day start. Junior Guerra has pitched all over the world, but finally cracked the Brewers Major League roster last season and posted a 2.81 ERA in just over 121 innings.

Line movement in this game has been significant. The Brewers opened as -118 favorites, but are now +102 underdogs. Bettors have favored the Rockies so far, but not substantially. About 55 percent of the bets have come in on Colorado.

Gray and the Rockies are easily my favorite bet today. Even with all the line movement, they’re still near the standard -110 vig that we are used to paying for straight wagers. It would have been nice to get them as dogs or near even money, but I think they have a huge edge in this matchup.

It’s a sad state of affairs for Milwaukee when their Opening Day starter is a guy like Guerra. He quite lucky last year regarding advanced statistics and he’s bounced around the world for a reason – he’s not very good. He’s 32 years old and is nothing more than a journeyman starter.

The opposite is true for Gray, who impressed last year and could develop into a top starter. The ballpark isn’t great, but the Brewers are free swingers who strike out a lot. Couple that with Colorado’s offense being potent and we have a recipe for an easy Rockies win.

Pick: Colorado -112

Kansas City Royals – D Duffy (L) +101 at Minnesota Twins – Ervin Santana -111 Total: 8

The Royals travel to Minnesota and will begin Danny Duffy to start the year. The southpaw had a breakout year in 2016, winning 12 games and finishing with a 3.51 ERA. Ervin Santana is a reliable veteran starter who still has it. He is starting the second straight Opening Day for the Twins and was their top starter last season with a 3.38 ERA.

There hasn’t been much line movement in this game. The Twins opened as a -112 favorite. Bettors have wagered heavily on the Twins so far, with 75 percent of bets coming in on the hometown team. Despite that, the odds have only moved a few cents since opening.

It’s not quite reverse line movement, but the odds are not moving at all with the public heavy interested in the Twins is a positive. Danny Duffy is quietly one of the best pitchers in baseball. He isn’t yet getting the credit he deserves, but I think that will change after this season.

The Twins strike out a lot, and Duffy’s strikeout rate has climbed in recent years. He is in his prime at 27 years and should have no issues holding down this boom or bust Minnesota lineup. I think the Royals can muster enough offense against Edwin to grab a victory tomorrow afternoon.

Pick: Kansas City +101

Joseph Falchetti

Joseph Falchetti - Editor-in-Chief / Sports Writer & Analyst

Joe is the author of the blog, most picks, and the majority of excellent content on SafestBettingSites. He's been mentioned on Forbes.com as a gaming analyst and his articles have been linked by larger publications, such as the New York Times.

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