NBA Betting 3-28-17 – Free Picks

Yesterday, we just had one bet, but it was a winner, with the Spurs easily coasting to a win against the Cavaliers. We grabbed the line at -4.5, and it closed at -5.5, making the bet firmly +EV.

Tonight’s slate is a fuller one, with eight games on the slate. As always, all our odds will be quoted from BetOnline (Full Review) and are accurate at the time of posting. However, be sure to line shop for the best price before placing your bet.

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Minnesota Timberwolves at Indiana Pacers -4.5 Total: 208

The Pacers will host the Wolves on Tuesday evening as they hope to improve their place in the East standings before the playoffs.

Minnesota rebounded in the second half, and many hoped they would find themselves in postseason contention. Instead, they’ve crumbled down the stretch, losing their last six games and won’t be making the playoffs with a 28-44 record.

Their defense improved as the season has progressed, but that hasn’t been the case the past few weeks. During their recent slide, Minnesota has given up 100 points in every one of their losses. Most recently, they lost at Portland on Saturday, by a score of 112-102.

The Pacers broke a two-game losing streak with a win over the 76ers on Sunday. The win improved their overall record to 37-36. Currently, they are 7th in the West and barring a collapse will make the postseason in the East.

However, if Indiana can finish the season on a tear, they can move up in seeding. They may be able to get themselves up to the 5th spot if they win some games and other teams falter.

Betting Action

The Pacers opened as a -5 favorite. Since the odds opened, that number has moved to -4.5 at most sportsbooks. Indiana is getting the lion’s share of the bets so far, with over 60 percent of wagers coming on the Pacers.

Prediction

The Pacers need this game, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they will win it. Also, we have +4.5 to work with the Timberwolves, a number that seems to be dropping based on sharp action. Most bettors have taken the Pacers, but the line has moved the other direction, giving us reverse line movement.

Minnesota is also coming off an extra day of rest and should be able to score at will against Indiana. I like the road team here, plus the points.

Pick: Timberwolves +4.5

Washington Wizards at Los Angeles Lakers +9.5 Total: 225.5

The Wizards, fighting for playoff position, like the Pacers, travel to Los Angeles to face the Lakers this evening.

Washington has ripped off a three-game win streak, with their last win coming against the Cavaliers on Saturday. With a 45-28 record, they have the third-best record in the Eastern Conference. They’re just two games behind Cleveland for the second spot and 2.5 games back of the East-leading, Boston Celtics.

The Lakers started out the year strong, but then became more of the team we saw last year. Currently, they’re playing some terrible basketball. L.A. has the worst record in the Western Conference at 21-52. They’ve lost seven of their last eight games, including a 97-81 defeat against visiting Portland on Sunday.

Betting Action

Washington is getting more than 80 percent of wagers in this one. That has pushed the odds from -9 to 9.5.

Prediction

I managed to grab the Wizards at -9. The line has shifted to -9.5, but I still think there is value with Washington in this spot. They have an extra day of rest compared to the Lakers, and they’re far superior on talent. Double digits shouldn’t be an issue for the Wizards, as they fight for playoff seeding.

Pick: Wizards -9.5

Joseph Falchetti

Joe is the author of the blog, most picks, and the majority of excellent content on SafestBettingSites. He's been mentioned on Forbes.com as a gaming analyst and his articles have been linked by larger publications, such as the New York Times.

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