New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Week 4 Betting Picks And Odds

Patriots vs. Bills Expert Betting Picks And Odds

The New England Patriots are used to being 3-0, but this is new territory for the Buffalo Bills.

When Patriots and Bills clash in an AFC East matchup on Sunday, only one will remain unbeaten after the first month of competition.

Patriots vs. Bills Odds – NFL Season Week 4

The Patriots are -7.5 on the road against a divisional rival they are used to beating. The line hasn’t had any huge movement during the week.

The lower it was found was by a touchdown difference for a couple of hours, and then it went back up.

Patriots vs. Bills
-7.5 (-110) Spread +7.5 (-110)
-325 Moneyline +265
Over 42.5 (-110) Total Under 42.5 (-110)
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New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Preview

When talking about the Patriots, we usually start with Tom Brady, but not this time. We will get to the 42-year QB, but the defense deserves a ton of credit.

New England has allowed 5.7 points per game in the first three weeks of the season. It is the best number in the league. In fact, the defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown yet.

Last week the Jets scored 14 points on the Patriots, but the defense was not involved. New York scored on a muffed punt and a pick-six thrown by backup QB Jarrett Stidham.

What’s The New England Patriots’ Edge vs. Buffalo?

Sure, New England played against Miami and the third-string QB for the Jets, but in past years those teams would have at least found the end zone once or twice. It’s safe to say the defensive unit has been a lot better than expected.

It doesn’t hurt having QB Tom Brady on the other side. Brady is completing 67.9% of his passes and has thrown seven touchdowns in three contests. He didn’t even finish the games against Miami and New York because both were over by the third quarter.

My editor doesn’t like it when I add trends and past results to the analysis, but in this case, it’s almost impossible not to do it. There is no team that Tom Brady has beaten more on his career than the Buffalo Bills.

Brady has an unreal career record of 30-3 against Buffalo, with 69 TDs vs. 24 INTs. It’s just filthy.

What’s The Buffalo Bills’ Edge vs. New England?

It’s hard to find the edge in favor of Buffalo, especially when the franchise has been on the losing side so many times against the same opponent.

However, with the Bills sitting at 3-0, I would expect the New Era Field to have a crazy atmosphere for this game. After all, anticipating Buffalo fans to show an insane behavior is not a tough ask.

The defense is the key to this game for Buffalo. The Bills are fifth in points allowed after three games with just 15.7 PPG. Their resume says they have beaten teams like the Jets, Giants, and Bengals. None of those offenses is even close to the talent the Patriots will bring to town.

Nevertheless, Buffalo needs to trust their defensive form. In their favor is the fact that Patriots WR Julian Edelman suffered a ribs injury last weekend. He has been limited in practice.

WR Josh Gordon Minor Injury

Also, WR Josh Gordon sustained a minor injury on one of his fingers against the Jets last week. Both are expected to play, but the issues can end up diminishing their impact.

The offense is the most significant question mark for the home team. QB Josh Allen has thrown 750 yards and three touchdowns so far, but he has also been picked three times.

Allen hasn’t evolved as a pure passer from his rookie season to this one. He remains a liability for his team. His scrambling skills help the Bills a lot, but against New England, this will be particularly hard to do.

The Patriots have one of the best linebacking corps in the entire NFL.

Patriots vs. Bills NFL Week 4 Betting Prediction

Let’s be honest. The Bills 3-0 record comes with a lot of smoke. Reality will hit this team on Sunday, so erase any chance that suggests Buffalo will come up with a straight-up win. There’s a world of difference between these two teams.

With that said, it would be foolish not to explore the Bills +7.5 at home. It’s too good of a line to let it slide. We get the home team by more than a touchdown.

I won’t call it a bargain, because against the Patriots is not but it is the smart play. Buffalo’s defense should keep this game close. Take the points.

Patriots vs. Bills Game Information

  • Date: Sunday, September 29, 2019
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • Venue: New Era Field, Buffalo, NY
  • TV Info: CBS

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Alonzo Solano

Alonzo Solano - Sports Analyst & Picks Writer

Alonzo is a Sports Analyst who has covered College Football and NFL odds for SafestBettingSites but don’t be surprised if you read him on any other sport. He’s a gaming analyst looking for winners every weekend.

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