New York Guardians Vs. Dallas Renegades Betting Odds & Picks | XFL Week 5

New York Guardians vs Dallas Renegades XFL Betting Odds, Pick & Prediction

The Saturday evening game in week five of the XFL has the NY Guardians traveling down to Globe Life Park in Arlington, Texas, to battle the Dallas Renegades.

The game is set to be on Saturday, March 7th, 5 pm Eastern.

The forecast suggests mild winds and partly cloudy skies and a comfortably cool 47 degrees Fahrenheit so weather shouldn’t play much of an impact on the game.

What The Odds Say About The Guardians Vs. The Renegades

NY Guardians vs. Dallas Renegades
+245 Moneyline -305
+7.5 (-110) Spread -7.5 (-110)
O 37 (-110) Total U 37 (-110)
Bet On Guardians vs. Renegades XFL Week 5 Game At

The Renegades opened as 7.5-point favorites which moved up to 8 almost immediately. It’s been at 8 the rest of the week with a -120 juice on the Guardians +8 in some spots while others remain at a split -110.

The total opened at anywhere from 36.5 to 37.5 depending on where you looked but seems to have settled at 37.0 in most places and hasn’t moved all week.

Who Will Play And Who Will Be Benched?

Dallas received some terrible news late Monday night as they learned that starting QB Landry Jones would be out for at least two weeks with what’s being reported as a partially torn MCL. It’s unlikely that he will return this year as this was the same injury that plagued him going into the season.

Starting left guard Salesi Uhatafe did not participate in practice Wednesday with an unspecified injury.

New York lists starting safety Andrew Soroh and starting center Ian Silberman as limited participants so keep an eye on those situations.

Dallas Renegades Offense Vs. New York Guardians

Dallas held the XFL’s top offense, the Roughnecks, to 307 yards of total offense and did so through a whopping five turnovers by their offense.

Over the course of the season, the Renegades defense has been solid, particularly up front where they’ve had a lot of success getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks even if they don’t have impressive numbers to show for it.

They even made things difficult for the XFL’s top quarterback Phillip Walker this week but he just proved too slippery in the running game and was able to extend plays. Against weaker competition, this defensive line can dominate a game.

NY: The Worst Offense By a Large Margin

New York has had the worst offense in the XFL by a large margin through four weeks but they’ve also faced a very difficult schedule of opposing defenses including three of the top four in the Vipers, Defenders, and BattleHawks.

This week they get the fourth of those four in Dallas. The Guardians put up 250 yards of offense against an unimpressive Wildcats defense this week with new quarterback Luis Perez under center.

While his 150 gross passing yards isn’t impressive, Perez was disciplined and safe with the ball other than taking a few sacks.

New York was able to get their running game going for an impressive 122 yards including 82 yards on 18 attempts for lead back Darius Victor.

McGloin And Perez To Come Back

Original starting quarterback Matt McGloin and Perez will share first team repetitions in practice this week so keep an eye on this situation.

The outlook doesn’t change much if McGloin starts. Regardless, the Guardians will have to lean heavily on their running game to find success against the Renegades.

We’ve seen how poor the Guardians offense can be against good defenses and there’s no reason to expect otherwise in this spot. Unless the run game is dominant, New York is doing to have difficulty moving the ball against a tough Renegades defense.

Strong edge to the Renegades.

New York Guardians Defense Vs. Dallas Renegades

While the Guardians were able to win the game against the Wildcats, they still allowed 345 yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play to a team that was missing the XFL’s most dynamic wide receiver in Nelson Spruce.

The Guardians were strong against the run only allowing 40 yards rushing in a close and competitive game but got absolutely destroyed in the aerial game even without Spruce in the lineup.

I consider the Guardians to be the worst defense in the league. Other than a good defensive line that can get pressure on the quarterback, they just don’t have a lot of positive things going on.

Landry Jones Is Out

Dallas will be without one of the better quarterbacks in the league in Landry Jones for what is looking like the remainder of the season. This is a huge loss.

While he threw three interceptions in their loss last week against an unimpressive Roughnecks defense, Jones was the main reason this offense was just shy of the best passing yards per game offense in the league.

In steps backup Phillip Nelson who we got to see in week one while Jones was injured.

Against the BattleHawks, one of the XFL’s top defenses, Nelson was able to put up a respectable 218 yards and a 79% completion percentage but no touchdowns and an interception. 

Dallas Still Has Talent

Dallas still has a talented running back corps with the duo of Lance Dunbar and Cameron Artis-Payne but Nelson isn’t on the same level as Jones as a quarterback.

The Renegades will have to be carried by the running game and strong defense and given how disruptive the Guardians defensive line has been this could turn into a tougher matchup than people think.

Look for Dallas to utilize quick passing outside to their running backs to alleviate pressure on Nelson.

Even matchup

Our Guardians Vs. Renegades XFL Week 5 Prediction:

I’m taking the Guardians +7.5 and the UNDER 37.5.

Typically with a really low total and a large spread I’m going to be interested in taking the points. This spread and total implies approximately a 22.5 to 14.5 final score. That’s a very small margin of error for the favorites.

If I feel the total is going to come in under then that margin is even smaller. Similar to our Seattle Dragons +12.5 cover last week in a similarly low total of 39, I love getting a lot of points in what looks to be an ugly, low scoring game.

When QB Play Is Poor, Coaches Tend To Rely On The Running Game

With two (or three) relatively poor quarterbacks in this contest and two defenses that have been solid against the run I’m just not seeing either team moving the ball consistently well in this contest.

So not only are we getting a favorable game script for the under, but the relative strengths of these defenses line up well against that anticipated game script.

Both teams want to slow this game down and play solid defense which plays right into our under.

Our Guardians Vs. Renegades XFL Week 5 Picks:

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