NFL Best Bets Against the Spread – Week 10: Patriots vs Broncos & More
The picks went 1-1 last week, with the Cowboys beating the Chiefs and the Broncos getting demolished by the Eagles. We’ve been on a good run as of late, going 3-1 over the last two weeks with the plays. Let’s keep that going this week!
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New Orleans Saints -3 at Buffalo Bills +3 Total: 47.5
The Saints and their improved defense seem to be for real. New Orleans is on a roll in the NFC South with a 6-2 record. They quickly took care of the Buccaneers last week 30-10 and have a game on the Carolina Panthers in the division, a team they have already beaten once.
However, New Orleans home-road splits have been notable for years. The Bills are also coming off an ideal bounce-back spot at home with extended rest after losing badly to the Jets on last week’s Thursday Night Football.
New Orleans opened at -2, but those odds have moved to -3 as the week has progressed. Betting action hasn’t been too lopsided on either side, with Saints bettors as small favorites on the number of tickets.
Saints vs Bills Prediction
I’m willing to give the Bills a mulligan on last week’s performance. They’re a good football team and play considerably better in their home stadium. We have extra rest on the Bills’ side, along with the Saints’ indoor/outdoor splits as historical trends to capitalize on in this spot. Also, the Bills stand to be a bit better offensively, with wide receiver, Kelvin Benjamin, now a much more significant part of the offense after a week of practice.
Dallas Cowboys +3 at Atlanta Falcons -3 Total: 48.5
Dallas travels to the Georgia Dome after a big win last week against the visiting Chiefs. The Super Bowl hangover for the Falcons is hitting hard. They’re sitting at 4-4 and are coming off back-to-back losses, including last week’s 20-17 against Carolina. The offense has not looked good, and Matt Ryan has dropped in a big way from last year’s numbers.
Still, Atlanta is likely a playoff team, and they get one of their best offensive matchups this season against an awful Cowboys defense. Ezekiel Elliott will also not play this week after he exhausted the last of his appeals in court, which may hurt their clock killing style.
Running backs likely are overvalued in the odds, but his loss may make the Cowboys a bit easier to predict on offense. With Dez Bryant banged up and the road spot against a potent offense – I do not love this spot for Dallas.
Cowboys vs Falcons Prediction
The odds movement, or lack thereof, is another reason for my interest in the Falcons. Close to 70 percent of bets have come in the Cowboys, but the line has not moved off Falcons -3. In fact, it’s juiced on the favorite at most sportsbooks.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see this one move to -3.5 as we get closer to kickoff. Lay the points with the home team.
New England Patriots -7.5 at Denver Broncos +7.5 Total: 44.5
The Patriots are coming off a bye week as they head into Mile High to take on the Broncos in Week 10. New England improved their record to 6-2 after defeating the Chargers back in Week 8. For Denver, it’s been a rough few weeks. The Broncos went to Brock Osweiler over Trevor Siemian last week, but that still brought poor results. Osweiler struggled in a 54-14 loss at Philadelphia which dropped their record to 3-5.
Denver is desperate in this game as another loss would almost certainly end any playoff hopes. Osweiler is a lousy quarterback, but we have the offensive games that this Patriots defense can give up to opposing passers.
It’s also hard to remember sometimes that Denver still has an elite defense. The Patriots have lost receiver, Chris Hogan, who has been amazing in the red zone this season. At home, the Broncos defense should be fired up in this one.It always tough to stop Brady, but they have the personnel to make things difficult for New England’s offense.
Patriots vs Broncos Prediction
Even after last week’s beat down on the road – I will take Denver, at home, plus more than a touchdown against any team in the league. The defensive unit simply isn’t getting enough respect.