NFL Betting – 3 Season Win Totals You Should Bet
We don’t know about you, but we’re chomping at the bit for the NFL Season to start. Preseason is a nice appetizer, but it’s nothing compared to the main course. With Week 3 of the preseason in the books and pretty much every team done playing their starters until the start of the year, now is an excellent time to dive into season win totals.
We offer strategy for betting win totals in our NFL Betting Section. In this article, we will post some of our favorite bets for the upcoming 2016-17 NFL Season. Check back here all season long for free NFL betting picks, news, and analysis.
We’re taking a look at our top sportsbooks and giving bettors the best price on our favorite wagers. These are Bovada (Full Review), BetOnline (Full Review), and 5Dimes (Full Review). Be sure to line shop for best price before placing a wager as the odds listed here may have changed.
Cleveland Browns Over 4.5 Wins
It’s not easy putting down your hard earned money on the worst team in football, but the Browns may have more talent than most realize. We have to look for contrarian spots in betting markets and betting on downtrodden teams or teams that aren’t being properly valued.
Let’s be clear, Cleveland is probably going to be the worst team in football. With that said, there’s still a decent chance the Browns may luck into 5-6 or wins even if they are the worst franchise in the NFL.
Also, there’s always a chance that they end up not being the worst team. There are reasons to be excited about the Browns this year.
Offensively, Robert Griffin III has looked more than serviceable in the preseason. We don’t know how the RG3 experiment is going to turn out, but I do feel confident in backup Josh McCown can lead the Browns as well.
McCown may be old, he just turned 37 in July, but other than a poor year as a part of Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that went 2-14 – he’s been a pretty damn good quarterback. If we take his 2013 with the Bears and 2015 with the Browns, McCown threw 25 total touchdowns and just five interceptions.
Either quarterback should have success because the Browns do have a strong set of skill players offensively. 2016 first round draft pick, wide receiver, Corey Coleman should make an immediate impact. Josh Gordon will be back from his suspension after four games. When he’s been on the field, he’s a difference maker offensively.
From there we have other players to be excited about, such as tight end Gary Barnidge who is coming off a breakout season and a new contract. Running back Duke Johnson is a pass-catching weapon out of the backfield.
Cleveland’s defense is where things start to go downhill. They’re easily a bottom ten unit in the league, but they did face a number of injuries last year. Cornerback Joe Haden battled injury and poor play last year, but he’s healthy coming into 2016. If Haden can return to form, it will be a huge boost to the overall unit.
To put it simply, we know the Browns are bad, but we’re not sure they’re going to be the albatross that everyone is predicting this season. There’s value at Over 4.5 wins.
Best Price: Bovada Over 4.5 Wins (-135)
Seattle Seahawks Over 10.5 Wins Best Price: 5Dimes Over 10.5 (-125)
After losing spectacularly in the Super Bowl XLIX, doesn’t it feel like the Seahawks have lost a little attention? With Lynch now retired, it wouldn’t surprise us to see Seattle switch to more of a pass orientated offense, or at least run a lot less than they did in recent years.
We see that as a positive.
It’s a testament to Lynch as a runner that he’s been able to compile the statistics he did while running behind one of the league’s worst offensives lines. That part hasn’t changed. Pro Football Focus still ranks Seattle’s offensive line dead last coming into this season.
Russell Wilson’s ability both with his legs and his arm mask the Seahawk’s poor offensive line. Against the blitz, Wilson was one of the best in the league. He completed 111 of the 181 passes he attempted against opposing rushers for 1,633 yards and 21 touchdowns while throwing just three interceptions. Always a duel threat, he added another 644 yards on the ground.
Seattle’s receivers continue to improve. Doug Baldwin is coming off a breakout season and second-year pro Tyler Lockett is one of the most exciting young players in the league. If tight end Jimmy Graham can get healthy and make an impact – this offense could easily be one of the best in the league.
Seattle’s defense hasn’t been the complete shutdown unit it was in the past, but it’s still easily a top five unit. Their front seven is debatably the best in the league.
Most importantly, the Seahawks don’t have many challenges on their schedule. Arizona is the only true competition in their division. They get to play the Rams and 49ers twice. Their road schedule doesn’t include too many challenges besides games against the Cardinals, Patriots, and Packers.
The Super Bowl hangover is finished. Seattle might be the best team in the NFC West, even with some calling the Arizona Cardinals the NFL’s best team coming into the season. It wouldn’t shock us to see Seattle win the division and end the year with just 2-3 losses.
Best Price: 5Dimes Over 10.5 Wins (-125)
Pittsburgh Steelers Under 10.5 Wins
It’s easy to get excited about Pittsburgh’s offensive weapons, but let’s not forget that the Steelers will be missing a few key parts from a year ago, and their defense hasn’t done much to improve since last offseason.
Ben Roethlisberger is easily one of the game’s elite quarterbacks. He’s had some of the best seasons of his career the last few years, but that’s also because the Steelers offense has been stacked with weapons.
This year, Pittsburgh will be without running back Le’Veon Bell for the first three games and wide receiver Martavis Bryant for the entire season. Bell has also become somewhat injury prone in recent years and has been suspended several times for marijuana.
DeAngelo Williams filled in excellently in Bell’s absence last season after he went down in Week 8 with a torn MCL. However, Williams is 33 years old, the oldest running back in the league. He may begin to break down this season and isn’t someone to rely on if Bell goes down.
The major cause for concern is the absence of Bryant who is suspended at least all of the 2016 season for failing NFL drug tests. Roethlisberger’s production sees a noticeable drop without Bryant in the lineup.
He averaged just over 336 yards per game with Bryant in the lineup. This drops to 280 yards per game with him out of the lineup. He also threw more touchdowns, 2.11 per game on average with Bryant playing versus 1.33 touchdowns when he was out of the lineup.
Yeah, it’s a pretty clear drop-off. The Steelers don’t have anyone who can jump in and immediately replace his type of talent. Marcus Wheaton is a serviceable but uninspiring receiver. Sammie Coates and Eli Rogers have upside, but are far from a sure thing.
Ben always seems to get beat up as well. The Pro Bowl and future Hall of Famer seems to miss a few games each year as he has gotten older. Backup Landry Jones is an area of weakness for Pittsburgh, as the offense seems to slow to a crawl with him under center.
On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh hasn’t improved much on their below average unit. Their pass rush still needs a lot of work. Their secondary is mostly average and first round pick, cornerback Artie Burns still looks extremely raw.
Pittsburgh’s s defense isn’t good enough to carry this team if the offense sputters. The Steelers have a lot of talent, but they also have plenty of questions marks, along with a lack of depth. Their offensive won’t be quite as productive as it was a year ago and a couple of injuries could derail the unit completely.
The Steelers have one of the toughest schedules in the league, and it’s hard to see them getting through the season with more than ten wins.