NFL Kickoff: Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots – Free Pick

NFL Kickoff: Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots – Free Pick

It’s finally here. The 2017-18 NFL Season is set to kick off this Thursday Night when the Patriots host the Chiefs at Gillette Stadium. We’re breaking down tonight’s game from a betting perspective and offering our pick, as we will be all season long at SBS.

The odds are accurate at the time of posting and quoted from Bovada.lv (Full Bovada Review). However, we always encourage bettors to line shop for the best odds before placing their bet.

The Patriots

New England is coming off a stellar season with finishing the year with a 14-2 regular season record in 2016 and capped their year off by leading an extraordinary comeback against the Falcons in the Super Bowl.

The offseason didn’t see them lose much, in fact, New England a better team on paper than they were coming into last season. They added Brandin Cooks via trade with New Orleans to give Brady another weapon and shored up the secondary by adding a cornerback, Stephon Gilmore.

They also have a fully healthy, Rob Gronkowski, something they did not have for the Super Bowl. However, they were dealt a terrible blow with wide receiver, Julian Edelman, who tore his ACL in the preseason and will miss the entire 2017 season.

The Chiefs

Kansas City took the AFC West title down last season with a 12-4 record and earned themselves a first-round bye, but were beaten by Pittsburgh in a game where the Steelers scored no touchdowns but managed six field goals.

Kansas City fired their general manager a few months back and invested in the future this offseason, drafting a quarterback, Patrick Mahomes II. They extended head coach, Andy Reid. Jeremy Maclin was cut, leaving last year’s standout, Tyreek Hill, as the new top receiver.

The Chiefs’ defense continues to be strong year after year, especially at home, but the conservative offense does seem to limit the team’s overall upside. There were some rumblings that Smith may be more aggressive this season with the ball after the selection of Mahomes, but only time will tell.

Betting Odds

New England opened as a -7.5 favorite. The odds have moved to -8.5 or -9 at most sportsbooks. As of this writing, the odds sit at Chiefs +9 (-115) and Patriots -9 (-105) at Bovada. Betting action has favored New England so far.

The total is 48 points at Bovada and is at 48 or 48.5 depending on where you’re betting. It opened at 48 points. Bettors have heavily favored the under so far. Most offshore sportsbooks are reporting near 80 percent of wagers are being placed on the under.

Prediction on Chiefs at Patriots Game

I’m not one to gravitate towards public sides or heavy favorites, but there doesn’t seem to be many reasons why the Patriots can’t win this game by double-digits. Kansas City doesn’t have any major weapons outside of Kelce and Hill. They’re also now without their starting running back, Spencer Ware, for the rest of the season.

Remember, New England’s defense is better than it was a year ago. Bill Belichick always opts to remove the other team’s top weapon, which will likely be Kelce. That leaves Hill as the guy who has to make noise on offense.

I’m not saying Hill can’t be a No. 1 receiver, but he was fortunate with his touch-count last year that he was so productive. Few players with his size (5’10) can function as a top wide out in an NFL offense. I think that Hill as an offensive focal point may be a problem for KC, starting as early as this week.

It’s possible this game gets closer to 10 points as we move towards kick off, which would possibly swing the pendulum towards the Chiefs. But, I’ll take the defending champions on anything less than double-digits in this matchup.

money bag

NFL Week 1 – Thursday Night Football Pick

Pick: New England Patriots -9 (-105) at Bovada.

Joseph Falchetti

Joe is the author of the blog, most picks, and the majority of excellent content on SafestBettingSites. He's been mentioned on Forbes.com as a gaming analyst and his articles have been linked by larger publications, such as the New York Times.

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