NFL Week 11 – Best Bets Against the Spread

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It was a rough Week 10, we went 0-3 with the picks. Let’s hope for rebound this week. It’s not one of my favorite weeks to bet, so I’m just posting two plays this week. As always, check back on the free picks page, for plays on the Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football games.

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Pittsburgh Steelers -8 (-110) at Cleveland Browns +8 (-110) Total: 45nfl-week-2-betting-picks

The Steelers head to Cleveland to take on the Browns, the first game these two division rivals have played this season. They will also face off again in Pittsburgh on the final week of the regular season on January 1st.

Pittsburgh’s season has gone by the wayside after many predicted them to be Super Bowl contenders when the season started. Instead, they’re sitting at 4-5 record, after losing 35-30 to Dallas at home last week. It’s their fourth straight loss.

The Browns are the only team in the NFL without a win. They’re coming off extended rest after playing last Thursday in Baltimore. Cleveland kept it close in the first half but was blown out in the second to lose 28-7. They’re firmly in last place in the AFC North, with a record of 0-10.

The Steelers opened as -10 favorites in this contest. However, those odds moved quickly to -8 early Monday. That is where they stand currently. Over 85 percent of all bets have come in on Pittsburgh.

This isn’t typically a spot that I look to bet a team (road favorite, lopsided betting action) but this is a potential blow up spot for the Steelers, despite their road struggles. The Browns are winless for a lot of reasons, but for the most part, it’s their defense.

It’s the worst in the league, by a large margin. They’re going to face a team that has lost four games in a row and is looking to make a statement. Once again, I’m not a huge fan of large road favorites, but I think Pittsburgh wins this one by double-digits without breaking a sweat.

Pick: Steelers -8

Buffalo Bills +2.5 (-110) at Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-110) Total: 47

This season should be familiar to Bills’ fans. There was plenty of optimism in the offseason, but once again, we’re more than two-thirds of the way there, and Buffalo is playing mediocre football.

They’re not a bad team by any stretch, but the playoffs are unlikely unless they can grab a Wild Card spot. They currently sit in 3rd place in the AFC West with a 4-5 record. Buffalo is coming off a bye week. They last played on Nov 7th, on Monday Night Football, a game they lost to the Seahawks 31-25.

After winning the AFC North last season, the Bengals have been through a tough stretch as well. Their record fell to 3-5-1, after losing to 21-20 to the visiting Giants on Thursday Night Football last week.

Cincy opened as -3 home favorites in this game. Betting action has been mostly 50/50 in this game with a slight edge to Buffalo. The odds are now Cincinnati -2.5 across the board. The total opened at 47 points. It hasn’t changed at most bookmakers. About 60 percent of bets are being placed on the over.

Both defenses come into this game with plenty of injury questions. They’re also extremely overrated in my mind in the eyes of the public. There are plenty of games with higher totals this week, but this one may be the shootout that no one is talking about.

Offensively, both teams boast a large assortment of skill players, with easily exploitable matchups. The Bengals should have a tough time containing Tyrod and McCoy. Likewise, A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert are a matchup nightmare for a poor Bill’s secondary.

Pick: Over 47             

Joseph Falchetti

Joe is the author of the blog, most picks, and the majority of excellent content on SafestBettingSites. He's been mentioned on Forbes.com as a gaming analyst and his articles have been linked by larger publications, such as the New York Times.

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