NFL Week 3 – Early Week Odds at BetOnline
Week 2 is in the books. In this weekly article, we look ahead to next week’s odds, along with any notable news and notes for each game of Week 3 of the 2016-17 of the NFL season. I will also give out my early leans on some of the week’s odds. Let’s get right into it.
All our odds will be from BetOnline.ag, which offers new customers a 50% Deposit Bonus up to $2,500 on their first deposit.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots +2.5 Total: 41 (Thursday Night)
This one opened with the visiting Texans at -1.5. The odds moved to -2.5 quickly after opening. The total opened at 41 and has not moved at since the game went live. So far, about 60 percent of wagers are coming on the Texans and the under.
The Patriots will be without starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo who suffered a sprained shoulder in their victory against Miami. He’s been ruled out this week, but may return in Week 4.
Brady Still Suspended
Starting in his place with Tom Brady still on suspension will be Jacoby Brissett, who was drafted by the Patriots in the third round in this year’s draft. Coming out of NC State, some scouts thought he had the potential to be a starting quarterback, but that it would be a project.
He’s going to offer much more with his legs than Brady or Jimmy G, but he’s also raw and I would have to guess considerably less accurate than them both. He’s a big guy with a strong arm at 6’4 235.
Early Lean: It’s so hard to want to bet against Houston with the way their defense is playing. With Watt and Clowney healthy, there might not be a better front in all of football. With that said, Belichick is a genius game planner, and I wouldn’t be surprised to New England win this game. Osweiler has also looked shaky. For now, I’m leaning towards New England, but it’s not one of my favorite early week options.
Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans -1.5 Total: 46.5
Opening up as a pk, about 60 percent of wagers have come in on the Raiders, but the line has moved the opposite direction in the Titans favor to -1.5. The total has also dropped considerably since opening at 48 points. Once again, there has been far more action on the over than under, but the odds have gone the other way.
Early Lean: Tough early call on this one. I lean towards the Titans -1.5 based on the betting action. The Raiders defensive improvements have been hyped in the offseason, but so far they look terrible, especially in the secondary.
Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills +4 Total: 47
The odds opened at Bills +5 and despite heavy betting action on the Cardinals, the odds have moved for Buffalo. Bets on the total are split for the most part. The total has dropped a bit since opening at 48.
Early Lean: Love the Bills in this spot. They’re a much better team at home than they are on the road. Their backs are also against the wall in this one, and they desperately need a win. Ralph Wilson is also an extremely tough place to play. I would wait until later in the week to bet this one. A lot more action is likely coming on Arizona which should help Bills’ backers get a better price.
Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars pk Total: 47
This one has seen little movement on both sides. At some bookmakers, the Ravens are a slight favorite at -1, but most still have the game was a pick. The total has dropped slightly from 47.5 to 47 at most shops. Bets on both the side and total are about even.
Early Lean: Love Jacksonville in this spot, but once again prefer later in this week to bet this one. They’re coming off two losses, including a bad one last week at San Diego, but this is an excellent bounce back spot against suspect Ravens team that could easily be 0-2 right now.
Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins -10 Total: 41.5
Cody Kessler will start for Cleveland after injuries to Robert Griffin III and Josh McCown in back-to-back weeks. Kessler was a third round pick in this year’s draft out of USC. Many beat writers have stated that he looks far from ready to play. He’s not a lock to start this game, however. Cleveland will explore options and did sign veteran quarterback Charlie Whitehurst.
Miami opened up at -7.5 favorites, but that moved quickly to -10 with more than two-thirds of all bets coming on the Dolphins. The total has seen bets on both sides right down the middle but has dropped to 41.5 from a 42.5 opener.
Early Lean: Miami is probably worth grabbing now if you like them, but a better price for Cleveland may be coming. I don’t have much of lean in this game, but I’m generally partial towards double-digit underdogs by default, especially if the public is against them.
Washington Redskins at New York Giants -4.5 Total: 46.5
The Giants opened at -4, which has moved to -4.5 at most shops. The total opened at 47.5 and is at 46.5 or 47 across the board. Betting action has been mostly even, with a few more bets coming in on the over and New York.
Early Lean: It’s hard to know what to make of this one. I’m shocked the line moved down from the total. My favorite play now in this game is easily the over. Both of these teams play some terrible defense. For now, I lean Redskins slightly.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers -7.5 Total: 48
Green Bay opened as -8.5 favorites, but the odds have moved to -7 or -7.5 just about everywhere. The total has not changed since opening at 48 points. Action on sides has seen about an even split between Packers and Lions backers. The over is getting about 70 percent of wagers but the line hasn’t adjusted.
Early Lean: It’s a strong bounce-back spot for the Packers after losing to Minnesota on Sunday Night Football, but I’m not sure I can lay this much for an offense that still looks a bit sluggish and a defense without their top cornerback in Sam Shields. Detroit can score and play up-tempo. For now, I like the Lions.
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers -7.5 Total: 43
The odds in this game haven’t changed since opening. Right now, just over 50 percent of bets are coming in on Carolina. The total is getting about 55 percent of wagers.
Early Lean: As impressed as I was with Minnesota’s win against the Packers (specifically Bradford’s play) and Carolina’s inexperience in the secondary – this still seems like a slam dunk for the Panthers. I lean Carolina and slightly towards the under.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks -9.5 Total: 40.5
Seattle opened at -10 favorites. The line at most shops is still -10 or -9.5. The 49ers shockingly are receiving about 75 percent of wagers right now. The under opened at 42 points and made a big move to 40 or 40.5. Over 80 percent of bets have come in on the under.
Early Lean: I like Seattle if you can get them under 10 points. San Francisco has played over their heads so far, but this is a horrible spot for them. The Seahawks at home, coming off a loss, this could be a bloodbath. However, Russell Wilson’s health is still worth monitoring. He did not look like himself last week coming off the high ankle sprain.
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 Total: 42
The Buccaneers opened at -3.5 but are at -4.5, at least, at all sportsbooks. About 70 percent of wagers have come in on Tampa Bay. The total has even action on both sides, and the line has not moved off the opener.
Early Lean: Tampa Bay is one of my favorite bets this week. Unfortunately, I missed them at -3.5, but I would suggest betting them now. The line is likely to climb with most people on Tampa Bay. I still think that’s the sharp side, but getting the best price is vital.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 Total: 46
The odds opened with Pittsburgh as -5 favorites, but that has gone down to -3.5. However, that was quite early. Currently, the odds are -3 or -3.5 at every book online. The total opened at 46 points and has stayed there or gone to 46.5. About 80 percent of wagers are coming in Pittsburgh and the over.
Early Lean: Pittsburgh has been dominant so far, so I do not love a bet against them. However, I do feel like their defense is overrated. The over seems like my favorite play in this game. I think this one should probably be a point or two higher.
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-115) Total: 43.5
The Chiefs opened at -3.5, but the line is now -3 across the board. The total has dropped from 44-point opener to 43 and 43.5. About 60 percent of wagers have come in on the Jets and the over.
Early Lean: The Chiefs defense has been terrible to start the year, but this is a spot where the team should bounce back in a big way. The Jets offense isn’t anything to write home about, and they may be without Brandon Marshall. We can wait on this one as it seems the public is favoring the Jets.
San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts -2.5 Total: 51.5
The Colts opened as -3 favorites in this contest. That line is still available at some places, but the market has shifted to -2.5 for the most part. The total opened at 50 points and has seen quite a jump from 50 to 51.5 and 52 points. About 60 percent of all bets are coming in the Colts and near 80 percent on the over.
Early Lean: Not my favorite game of the week, but if I had to choose I would go with San Diego provided you can get +3 or better. It’s better to wait if you like SD, but if you’re a fan of Indy and can lock in -2.5 at a decent price, then go ahead.