NFL Week 5 – Best Bets Against the Spread
I was on vacation during Week 4, so I didn’t get a chance to post my plays, but I had an excellent week. Back in Week 3, we went 3-0 with the Jets +6.5, Bills +3.5, and Redskins +3.5.
All odds from this article with be quoting from Bovada.lv (Full Review) and are accurate as of writing. They’re out top-rated sportsbook. Deposit today at Bovada and get a 100% Bonus up to $250. However, we still encourage you to line shop for the best price and utilize multiple sportsbooks.
Buffalo Bills +3 (-110) at Cincinnati Bengals -3 (-110) Total: 39.5
Just like we all thought, the Buffalo Bills are 3-1 and atop the AFC East! It’s been a great start to the season for the Bills. They went to Atlanta last week and took care of the Falcons in the Georgia Dome, holding down their explosive offense and winning 21-17.
Cincinnati is on the opposite spectrum, getting their first win last week in a blowout of the Browns in Cleveland, putting them at 1-3. The AFC North does not look good this season, but the Bengals are already in must-win mode with three losses.
Cincy opened as a -3 favorite. Bettors have put slightly more action on the Bills so far, but the odds have stayed a -3 at most sportsbooks, with a few moving to -3.5 in favor of the Bengals. The total opened at 38.5 points and has gone up to 39.5.
This is a dangerous spot for the Bills. I’m not sure how good they are just yet, but they’re coming off two tough wins, the last one coming on the road.
Since Cincinnati installed Bill Lazor as the offensive coordinator two weeks ago, they have scored 55 points in their past two games. They’re finally at home after two weeks on the road and cruised to a victory last week. I expect this team to come in prepared and have at least some success against the Bills offensively.
However, Buffalo’s offense versus the Bengals defense is why I like Cincinnati.
Wide receiver in Jordan Matthews and have almost no downfield receiving threats besides Charles Clay. The Bengals defense received a massive boost to their pass rush and overall defense with Vontaze Burfict returning last week.
Overall, this is an awful spot for a team coming off an emotional road win, that is also likely overachieving. Cincinnati has been a far better since handing the offense to Lazor, and their defense is much better with the offense moving the ball and Burfict back in the fold.
Pick: Bengals -3 at Bovada
Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 (-125) at New York Giants -3.5 (+105) Total: 45
It’s a battle of two winless teams as the Chargers head to New Jersey to take on the Giants. Both teams have been putrid so far, especially defensively. L.A. hosted the Eagles, a game where opposing fans took over and lost narrowly 26-24. The Giants lost by the same deficit, dropping another game at Tampa Bay 25-23.
The Giants initially opened as a -4 favorite. Betting action has been about even in regarding wagers placed, but the number has moved around a bit from -4.5 and now down to -3.0 at most sportsbooks. Bovada is dealing the Chargers at +3.5 (-125) and the Giants at -3.5 (+105).
I like the Chargers quite a bit in this game. It’s hard to not look at this game closer to pk with the way that New York has played so far. They will also be down their starting center this week, who has played 26 straight games and guard John Jerry may also miss the game. It also doesn’t help that Odell Beckham is still not at full health.
Ben McAdoo’s game plans are also puzzling at times. This is a get-right spot for the Giants’ run game, but don’t expect them to attack the Chargers weaknesses under McAdoo. They will likely be throwing at their strong secondary instead of attacking the poorest part of their defense.
On the other side of the ball – Los Angeles hasn’t had much trouble moving the ball. New York’s defense looks to be a shell of what it was last season. Take the +3.5 or +3 and watch the visitors possibly win this game outright.
Pick: Chargers +3.5 at Bovada