NFL Week 6 – Best Bets Against the Spread
As always, I hope you win with these picks, but be sure to line shop for the best price. Prices are accurate as of this writing using BetOnline.ag’s odds, but they’re likely going to change from this posting.
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Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots -8 Total: 47.5
The Bengals head to Foxboro to take on the Patriots in a game that they desperately need to win to keep pace in what is shaping up to be a tough AFC North.
After notching a victory Week 1 over the Jets, Cincy has won just three out of their last four games. They were beaten badly by the Cowboys at Dallas last week by a score of 28-14, which dropped their record this season to 2-3.
The Bengals were hoping to get tight end, Tyler Eifert, back this week, but despite practicing on a limited basis – he will not make his season debut in Week 6. Eifert will help the Bengals tremendously in the red zone, where they don’t have much beyond wide receiver A.J. Green through the air.
Not having Tom Brady for four weeks didn’t cost the Patriots much (they only lost one game). Brady finally returned last week, at Cleveland, where New England rolled over the Browns, winning the game 33-13 and improving their record to 4-1 on the year.
However, even though the Bengals haven’t played the best defense lately, this is a much tougher test for New England’s offense than the borderline expansion defense they faced last week at Cleveland.
I’m not saying that the Bengals have a shot at winning this game. Every team has a shot in the NFL each week, but it’s highly unlikely they win this one, hence the Patriots being favored by almost 9 points.
With that said, I think we could see a small hiccup from New England this week. Let’s not forget that Brady hadn’t played much football leading up to last week. He’s also 39 years old. Facing the Browns couldn’t be a more ideal spot for his return.
The Bengals are by no means a matchup where the Patriots offense won’t be able to excel, but I think this one will be closer than most others think. They’ve had a rough few weeks, but they still have an offense that is talented and this a borderline must-win game for Cincy, especially considering how tough the AFC North seems to be, outside of Cleveland.
Pick: Bengals +8
Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins +7 Total: 48.5
Few teams have looked more dominant than the Pittsburgh Steelers within the first five weeks of the year. The Steelers took care of business once again last week against the Jets, cruising to a 31-13 victory and improving their record to 4-1.
In the previous week’s article, I expected the Dolphins to bounce back against the Titans last week. Instead, they were blown out at home by lowly Tennessee by a score of 30-17. The loss dropped the Fins to 1-4 on the season.
The Dolphins are by no means a good football team, but they may be better than their record indicates, even with last week’s debacle. However, the main reason I’m interested in them is the potential letdown spot for Pittsburgh.
If we take a look at the road numbers for Big Ben and wide receiver Antonio Brown, there’s quite a substantial drop in their efficiency on the road versus at home. Pittsburgh may walk into this one a bit overconfident.
The public is betting them heavily, with over 75 percent of wagers coming in on the Steelers. Despite that, the odds have moved from -7.5 to -7 at most sportsbooks.
The Steelers are also battling injuries. Wide receiver Markus Wheaton won’t play this week, and Sammie Coates will suit up, but he’s playing with a lacerated hand. Most importantly, though, is the loss of defensive end Cameron Heyward.
Pittsburgh doesn’t have much of a pass rush even with Heyward in the lineup. Miami’s offensive line is weak, something I’ll expand on next, but I worry about the Steelers ability to create pressure without Heyward. Tannehill should have time to throw, and I expect him to have success against what is still a poor secondary, in my mind.
Miami head coach Adam Gase cut three offensive linemen after last week’s loss to the Titans. Apparently, players now feel on notice and are concerned about their jobs. I expect this to translate into a strong effort this Sunday.
If you were lucky enough to get this one at +7.5 (Bovada had the Dolphins +8.5 at one point this week) then excellent work. Of course, I still like this one at +7. Miami might be my favorite bet this week.
Pick: Dolphins +7
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks -6 Total: 44.5
No team has been a bigger surprise than the Falcons this year. Atlanta has rushed out to a 4-1 record after winning back-to-back games against last year’s Super Bowl participants, the Carolina Panthers, and Denver Broncos. They currently have a huge lead in the AFC South.
They won at Denver 23-16 in a grind-it-out affair. The type of game that Atlanta isn’t used to winning. It was a major victory for the Falcons and one where they relied on the run and short-passing game to instead of downfield shots to Julio Jones.
Seattle is coming off a bye week, but have had an excellent start to the season. Their schedule has not been all that difficult, but aside from a loss to the Rams in Week 2 -0 – they have dominated weaker teams. Their last game was a 27-17 victory against the Jets which improved their record to 3-1. They’re firmly in the driver’s seat in the NFC West.
Their bye week came at the right time for Seattle, which has several injury issues. Quarterback Russell Wilson was a little gimpy before the bye recovering from an ankle sprain. The Seattle Times reported that Wilson said he felt “way better” after an extra week of rest.
The is a picture perfect letdown spot for the Falcons and a game I expect Seattle to smash. Atlanta is coming off two tough wins, and they’re facing an elite defense in one of the most difficult places to play in the league.
The public is infatuated with Atlanta’s run. Most bets are coming in on the Falcons, but the odds are trending in the other direction. Let’s also not forget how overrated Matt Ryan is becoming. I can’t foresee him putting together an even average performance in this one.
Pick: Seahawks -6.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders +1 Total: 45
The Chiefs had to Oakland to take on the Raiders in an AFC West matchup that is particularly important in a tough division.
Kansas City is coming off a bye week. The Chiefs record dropped to 2-2 on the season after the Pittsburgh Steelers demolished them 43-13 in primetime on Sunday Night Football in Week 4.
Oakland leads the AFC West with a 4-1 record. They won in a shootout 34-31 last week against their division rivals, the San Diego Chargers. The Raiders offense has proven to be fantastic this year, but the same can’t be said for their defense, which continues to struggle.
I love this spot for the Chiefs coming off the bye. They have gotten themselves healthier and have had a full two weeks to recover from their poor showing against Pittsburgh on national television.
There are also reports of heavy wind and rain in this game. No one can run the ball, churn clock and dink and dunk like Kansas City. Even while they trailed the Steelers by four touchdowns last week – they continued to run the ball in the third quarter.
I expect them to have plenty of success against Oakland coming off the bye week. Lay the points KC on the road.
Pick: Chiefs -1
Good Luck in Week 6!
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