NFL Week 6 – Best Bets Against the Spread
We had a strong week last week, hitting on both the Bengals -3 and Chargers +3.5 The Bengals won a hard-fought game against the Bills, and the Chargers won outright against the lowly Giants. Let’s get another win in Week 6.
All odds from this article with be quoting from SportsBetting.ag (Full Review) and are accurate as of writing. They’re out top-rated sportsbook. Deposit today at SportBetting.ag and get a 75% Bonus up to $1,000. However, we still encourage you to line shop for the best price and utilize multiple sportsbooks.
Cleveland Browns +9 (-110) at Houston Texans -9 (-110) Total: 47 points
The Browns come into this game still without a win and opting to go with backup, Kevin Hogan, over rookie quarterback, DeShone Kizer, who has started the previous five games. Houston has fallen to 2-3 after losing to the Chiefs last week. They also suffered a multitude of injuries in the defeat, losing defensive end, J.J. Watt, and linebacker, Whitney Merciless for the season.
The most noticeable aspect of this game is the rise in the total, from an opener of 44 points to 47 points. Houston opened as a -10 favorite, which is still available at some sportsbooks. They’re a slight favorite when it comes to betting tickets from the public, as well. At SportsBetting.ag, the current odds Texans -9 and Browns +9, both with -110 juice.
This is a beautiful spot for the Browns. We’ve seen the total jump up, but the Texans lose a point or so on the spread since opening. I’m one to believe the Browns, regarding roster, are a much better team than most want to give them credit for – their primary issues are those at the quarterback position.
Their defense is better this year. They have a dominant offensive line. They can move the ball against average or worse defenses. Kizer has just been killing them with his poor accuracy and turnovers. Hogan almost certainly isn’t the Browns’ franchise quarterback they’ve been praying for, but he’s been far better than Kizer in limited action this year.
He came into last week’s game against the Jets and connected for 16 of his 19 passes for two touchdowns and one interception. Houston’s defense may not generate the pressure they have in the past without Watt and Merciless. Linebacker, Jadevon Clowney, should play but has also shown up on the injury report.
It’s tough to say an 0-5 team isn’t getting enough respect, but the move from Kizer to Hogan should, plus the injuries to the Texans defense put them in a much better position to at least keep this one close.
Chicago Bears +6.5 (-110) at Baltimore Ravens -6.5 (-100) Total: 39
The Bears made a move from Mike Glennon to a rookie quarterback, Mitchel Trubisky, last week, and the early returns were strong. Chicago didn’t get a win but fought hard in a 20-17 loss at Minnesota. However, Trubisky was a clear upgrade over Glennon and Chicago’s offense looked far better in this one. The Ravens have had their offensive issues, as well. But, they’re still 3-2 on the season and tied with Pittsburgh in the AFC North after beating a Derek Car-less Raiders last week in Oakland, by a score of 30-17.
We saw the Ravens open as a -7, but that line wasn’t available for long. At most sportsbooks, the line opened at -6.5 as -7 was only available for a few hours. At almost every sportsbook, it sits on -6.5 -110 and +6.5 -110, but Bovada does have the Bears at +7 -125 if you insist on getting +7. The total dropped a point since opening at 40 points and is now at 39 points with vig.
Chicago is a similar situation to the Browns in that they may have another win or two if they didn’t have significant problems at the quarterback position. Trubisky gives this offense a big upgrade, but it is fair to say they are still fragile at the wide receiver position.
However, the Bears defense is playing well. Baltimore’s offense has been awful this season and while they did come to life last week – the Raiders defense has been one of the worst in the league so far.
Chicago should get the competent quarterback play they have needed for so long and while this is a terrible matchup for Trubisky – I think he will be able to at least keep the Bears within striking distance, especially with the play of their defense. The bottom-line being that Baltimore isn’t deserving of being favored by a touchdown in this spot.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 (-112) at Arizona Cardinals +1 (-108) Total: 47
The Buccaneers had a good opportunity to take on a poor Patriots defense at home but managed just 14 points in the defeat against New England on Thursday Night Football. Tampa Bay is in a tough position in the NFC South with the Falcons at 3-1 and the Panthers sitting at 4-2. The Cardinals are in trouble as well, after their record dropped to 2-3 in a loss at Philadelphia last week.
The game opened as a pk. It moved towards the Bucs early in the week and reached -2, but is now back to -1 at most spots. We haven’t seen a lot of movement on the total so far. It opened at 47 points, and that’s where it is at about just every book online. However, it is juiced more than usual on the under.
This is as good of a matchup as Palmer, and the offense will see all year. Even though they just acquired Adrian Peterson via trade – I still expect the offense to scheme extremely pass heavy, which is what we have seen all season. The Buccaneers pass defense has been a bottom five unit so far, this season. It’s a get-right spot for Palmer and the offense.
Let’s also talk about Winston and the Buccaneers offense. Winston’s has been highly inaccurate this season. He missed several throws that could have won them the game against the Patriots last week. New England’s defense has been the worst in the league so far, using both traditional statistics and advanced metrics.
Arizona’s defense has played poorly this season, but they’re in a good spot this week at home and against a quarterback who has been turnover prone and inefficient. I will take the Cardinals as small underdogs this week as they try to turn their season around.