NFL Week 11 Against The Spread Picks Battle
I’m in a bit of a slump right now. Joe is not doing great either, but this dude will celebrate a push like the Philadelphia Eagles will do a tie.
It’s time to bounce back after a couple of rough weeks. A lot of betting lines were off for many days because of QB injuries and COVID-19 cases.
Either way, here are the best ATS picks for the NFL Week 11.
Joe’s NFL Week 11 Picks Against The Spread
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 vs. LA Rams
The Rams had a statement win against Seattle last week as my Seahawks +2 pick went down in flames. To be honest, I didn’t value Seattle’s injury issues nearly enough and undervalued the Rams defense.
Still, I will go back to the well against the 6-3 Rams that are now tied for the top record in the NFC West.
They will face a tough opponent on Monday Night Football, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs are coming off a statement win against Carolina where they put up 46 points. They have a 7-3 record now, but still, trail the Saints in the division.
Tampa is firing on all cylinders right now. Their poor performance against the Saints was an aberration, but we still may be getting a discount on them in betting markets because of it. The reality is that teams play badly some weeks, for whatever reason.
I love this matchup for Tampa and I think this number should be closer to -6. The Buccaneers defense will be able to pressure Goff, something that Seattle was not able to do last week. Lay the points with the home team.
Green Bay Packers +1.5 at Indianapolis Colts
The Packers probably scared a lot of survivor league players last week as they narrowly won escaped with a victory against the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars. The win moved them to 7-2, where they have a massive lead in the NFC North.
We last saw the Colts on TNF where they demolished the Titans to match them in record at 6-3 and grab ahold of the AFC South, via tiebreaker. This game was close until the Colts dominated the second half, outsourcing Tennesee 21-0.
We have to give credit to the Jaguars as they did hold down the potent Packers’ offense. However, I think their performance was likely at the bottom range of their outcomes.
The Colts have a much better offense than Jax, but their defense is far from an imposing matchup for Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams.
If the Packers beat the Jaguars by 20 points, then we may see a far different price here. Perhaps, even Green Bay as a road favorite. The market is a bit too down on them in this spot.
Aaron Rodgers has also been fantastic this season, but especially indoors, where playing conditions are perfect. Take the road dog on the points or the underdog moneyline.
Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Las Vegas Raiders
These two teams played each other earlier in the season, with the Raiders springing the upset in KC back in Week 7.
They won in Arrowhead by a score of 40-32. KC is coming off a bye last week with their last appearance being against the lowly Jets. A game they easily won to improve their record to 8-1.
Las Vegas moved to 6-3 after taking care of business against the visiting Broncos. The game wasn’t much of a sweat for the Raiders. They destroyed their AFC West rivals by a score of 37-12.
There is some concern with KC having two tackles under COVID protocols, but I still love the Chiefs here. They lost to this team once this season, but that may be a positive as Andy Reid will have one of his best gameplans in place for this matchup.
The market offers us a little value due to the recent run by LV, as well. They’re 3-0 over the past three weeks, but their wins haven’t exactly come against elite teams, in the Browns, Chargers, and Broncos.
This one is off the board at some sportsbooks, but if you look hard enough you will certainly find a KC -7. Lay the points with the best team in football on the road without hesitation.
Alonzo’s NFL Week 11 Picks Against The Spread
Atlanta Falcons +4.5 at New Orleans
As you know Drew Brees will be out for several weeks with multiple broken ribs. Jameis Winston will be under center to face the Falcons.
Beyond making fun of Winston’s 30 interceptions last season, what worries me is that I don’t think he has the grasps of this offense. Winston needs repetitions with the first team, and he hasn’t done that.
Last week against the Niners, he looked overwhelmed and was sacked twice because he held the ball too long. Atlanta also knows him, so this isn’t anything new for the Falcons. It is just the same Winston in a new uniform.
Atlanta has won three of their four games since firing Dan Quinn. It should have been four straight wins if not for Todd Gurley’s last-second TD three weeks ago.
The Falcons are coming off a bye week. They are playing better lately and have a favorable matchup.
When the now HC Raheem Morris took over as defensive coordinator last season, they destroyed the Saints 26-9 even though New Orleans was a huge favorite. Take the points.
Jacksonville Jaguars +10 vs. Steelers
I know it’s hard to lay down points on a team with eight straight losses but hear me out. Despite losing all the time, the Jags are a competitive team who stays within range to cover games.
In the last three outings, they have covered the spread. They lost by ten against the Chargers in a game they were leading most of the time. Then they lost against the Texans by two points and against the Packers by four.
Jacksonville will be at home, and the heat and humidity will play in their favor. Pittsburgh is a better team, don’t get wrong, but the Steelers sometimes have these games where they don’t give it all.
Pittsburgh will take the win, but Jacksonville will come back late to cover and give us the win.
New England Patriots -1.5 at Houston
The Patriots have won two games in a row and are learning to win with the little talent they have on both sides of the ball. The win against Baltimore last week was impressive.
The spread of this game is too small not to take advantage of it. New England actually believes they are a good team, and while I’m not sure about that, they are better than Houston.
The Texans have only beaten Jaguars this season. They are coming off a weak offensive performance against the Browns where they only scored one touchdown.
Bill Belichick should outclass Romeo Crennel and take a third straight win to put his team at .500. Bet the Patriots.
Season Overall Against The Spread Record